Some Advice for President-Elect Obama

Hat tip to Tyler Cowen at MR .

Harvard economist (and Republican-leaning citizen) Greg Mankiw gives Obama some good advice moving forward.

It's a short but good read.

After congratulating Obama on his historic win, Mankiw turns to economic policy and takes a cursory look at some broad issues on the forth-coming policy agenda with some advice.

In short these tips are:

1. Listen to your economists

2. Embrace some Republican ideas

3.Pay attention to budget constraints

4.Recognize past mistakes

On point 1, I agree wholeheartedly. Austan Goolsbee is excellent as are the others. Obama had a good list of advisers. Mankiw even knows quite well:

Your campaign’s director of economic policy, Jason Furman, is a smart, sensible, and well-trained policy economist. I know: He is a former student of mine.

But Mankiw warns:

Pay close attention to what they have to say. They will often give you advice quite different from what you will hear from congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

He urges Obama to keep them nearby and have them present at all relevant meetings. Let's hope they have some sway.

Point 2 is well put and worth consideration. As Mankiw says, neither party has a monopoly on truth and good ideas. As a libertarian, I agree 100% ;)

Mankiw then draws examples from a recent Democratic President who had some economic success: Bill Clinton and is adopting of the GOP welfare reform. Good idea...regardless of party.

He then gives a prop to McCain's health care tax credit proposal and mentions how the idea hits close to home:

Did you know that long before McCain ever proposed this idea, it was advanced by Mr. Furman, your campaign’s policy director? He can explain to you why the Furman-McCain plan makes a lot of sense.

While I'm not totally sold on the idea, it does make some sense on first consideration and is surly worth another look come reform time.

Point 3 goes without saying but I'm not sure it will get much traction. But hey, perhaps Obama will pull a "Bill Clinton" and make deficit reduction and budgetary reform a key priority. We'll see.

Point 4 is also a great piece of advice. Again, Mankiw uses Clinton as an example. Obama's trade record as a Senator is abysmal. See link for some examples.

But simply preemptively defers to Obama's advisers:

Your economists can explain to you why these positions were wrong-headed.

Indeed. And I'm sure they will. Will he listen and tell the Left-leaning special interests to shove it? I hope so. It wouldn't be the first time for a Dem President. Clinton broke ranks and expanded trade while President and without much Democratic support.

He closes:

This past Tuesday, many people voted for you hoping you would achieve the kind of economic success that Bill Clinton enjoyed in the 1990s. Your best chance of delivering what they want requires that you abandon some of your past positions and pursue a more moderate, bipartisan course.

I've had several conversations since the election and just before it urging some of my Republican friends and family to lighten up and relax. I insisted he would do just fine. I was always optimistic that Obama would not be an economically illiterate loose cannon ready to adopt a destructive agenda. And I still believe that. He is President now. There are no strategic Senate votes, Leftist special interest constituents, bending to whips and majority leaders and their agendas. He has to see things differently and I believe he will.

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Regarding No. 2

Embracing some Republican ideas.

McCain's health care plan? 

Please.

That was the worst Republican idea since privatizing Social Security.

Here's a health-care reform idea -- The federal government creates a health-care insurance policy that everyone in the United States receives. This is a very basic, no-frills policy that covers emergencies and preventative care. Employers and individuals can supplement this basic policy with enhanced benefits programs as they see fit and can afford. The government policy would be paid for through a combination of payroll taxes and a federal VAT. This program would also amount to a de facto corporate income tax cut since it would greatly reduce costs to corporations.

qui tacet consentire

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It's an idea

And while I don't know it inside out and backwards, it makes some sense on first glance. Furthermore, it's not a "Republican" idea per se, it's an idea conceived by policy economists that McCain's team adopted in its campaign. As Mankiw says, it's also supported by Obama's chief economic adviser (when politics aren't involved).

Like I said, I don't necessarily support it but I do think it can't be dismissed by simply saying it's the worst GOP since privatising SS. You'd need to explain what's so bad about if you want to take that stance.

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McCain's plan would weaken

the link between employment and health insurance, which is perfectly fine and probably desirable. But it wouldn't set up a useful pooling system to replace it. Instead you'd have a bunch of individuals shopping around for insurance, which sounds great (free market!) until you realize that the insurance companies are perfectly free, under McCain's plan, to pick and choose individual customers (either directly or via rates). So now you have high-risk cases who are no longer covered by their employer and can't purchase affordable health care. You haven't really fixed anything, you've just increased profits for those insurance companies that slightly reduced premiums for healthy customers while significantly cutting costs.

My basic problem with the McCain plan is the lack of a smooth transition from employer based to individual. As put forward in the primaries it didn't seem like it could be successfully implemented. Certainly one can pick and choose certain aspects of it that are appealing.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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I like all of these points in the abstract

I might disagree with particular instances in which it was claimed an event or decision fell into this or that category, but the general idea seems solid to me.

Regarding Obama pulling a Clinton, let's keep in mind that Clinton had the happy fortune to preside over a tech bubble, whereas it looks like Obama will inherit a recession. So it is not clear that Obama's actions, at least initially, ought to mimic Clinton's priorities.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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