Clive Crook Lashes Out in All Directions. This is Good Stuff
I'd been lightly following this Clive Crook story from afar without reading the actual article. Then I saw, via Will Wilkinson , that it's still growing and that Clive's original article
even got responses from the two high profile macroeconomists mentioned in the article: Barro and Krugman. **Keep in mind folks that the recent discussions about economics (especially macro) here at Swords Crossed as well as questions about the real value and proper place of economics and economists in politics is a microcosm of what's being discussed in larger and more high profile circles. Read around and you'll see it. So what did Clive say that whipped up a fuss? Well, he expressed a common...though nuanced...sentiment about econ...especially macro...that I agree with. BUT, then he named names. That always gets things more interesting. Basically in a quick Cliff Notes version of the article if you don't like reading:
I used to have no time for the idea that economists never agree, so economics must be a bogus science and a waste of time. Of course economists disagree, I would say. Economics is difficult, and by its nature cannot be as clear-cut as the physical sciences...As long as it remains aware of its own limits, one should not mock the discipline for aiming high. ...Judge them by those standards, I used to say. ...But my earlier confidence that economists are not wasting their own and everybody else’s time is diminishing.... ...Economists are failing to express anything resembling consensus on the most basic questions of economic policy.
Sound familiar? Of course, I would argue as whether some of the issues he mentions are truly "basic". I don't think they are. But that's another matter. Back to the little yellow version. Krugman:
...This impression of disarray – that economics has nothing clear to say on these questions – is not the fault of economics as such. It is a mostly false impression created by some of its leading public intellectuals, Mr Krugman among them. Economics outside the academy has become the continuation of politics by other means. If you wish to know what Mr Krugman thinks on any policy question, do not read his scholarly writings; see which policies are advocated by the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Mr Krugman agrees with liberal Democrats about most things, and for the rest gives as much cover as the discipline of economics can provide – which, given its scientific limitations, is plenty. He does this even on matters where, if his scholarly work is any guide, the economics is firmly against his allies. Liberal Democrats are protectionists. Mr Krugman is not, but politics comes first.
A very, very common critique about Krugman from economic observers who talk about "Two Krugmans". I'm one of them. Then to the Right:
Just as there is a consensus among economists that protectionism should be opposed, most economists believe that a powerful fiscal stimulus is both possible and desirable in present circumstances, and that the best stimulus would include big increases in public spending. Yet recently, Robert Barro, a scholar with conservative sympathies, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that this view was an appeal to “magic”.
I'll say that powerful fiscal stimulus is ambiguous. He continues about the two economists:
...both set the consensus aside so carelessly. In doing so, these stars of the profession destroy the credibility of their own discipline. Mr Krugman gives liberals the economics they want. Mr Barro gives conservatives the same service. They narrow or deny the common ground. Why does this matter? Because the views of readers inclined to one side or the other are further polarised; and in the middle, those of no decided allegiance conclude that economics is bunk. Politics and economics are always difficult to keep apart. But the problem is getting worse...
Both economists answered. Here's Round 2 from Crook . The economists' responses to his article are in the link. And all bias aside, I must say that Krugman exhibits the very nonsensical attitude that contributes to the problem Crook is pointing out.
Clive used to be a reasonable guy; in his mind he probably still is a reasonable guy. But he has misunderstood what it means to be reasonable. He now apparently believes that it means declaring, in all circumstances, that Democrats and Republicans are equally in the wrong, even if the Democrats are talking Econ 101 and the Republicans are being led by the crazy 36.
Krugman also calls Crook's article an hysterical attack. Wow. Crook was dumbfounded by the nastiness.
Each side is usually somewhat wrong, I find, but the proportions do vary according to topic. I am very much in the Democratic camp on the stimulus, for instance. I think it is unreasonable, on the other hand, to regard everything Republicans say as definitionally wicked or stupid or both, which is the organising principle of everything Paul writes in the NYT.
Oh brother. Aside from the obvious, blind arrogance, I'll just point out that stimulus policy and "multipliers" and "pump-priming" is NOT Econ 101 by any stretch. It's more akin to debates in physics about unanswered and disputed mysteries about Earth's long history...or even the Solar System...perhaps the universe. Hardly Physics 101. As for Barro, Clive has the entire email correspondence on display with Barro's permission. The exchange was congenial and rather informative. Apparently, Barro is working on project (not basic stuff) regarding the dependability of the methodology that goes into the multiplier:
Multipliers for other forms of government spending are imprecisely determined but are not significantly different from zero. Actually, I hope that my current long-term empirical project will shed more light, including macro effects from changes in marginal tax rates. You want me to ignore good economic theory and empirical analysis and pretend that a voodoo multiplier above one should be respected as a "consensus?"
The exchange goes on. You can read the rest at at the link. I hope the discussions around the web and in the media continue. Here's Kling . Here's Cowen
. Couldn't find an liberal Keynesian responses as of yet. I'll add them if I find them.
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Comments :
The Political Economy...
You can't separate politics from macroeconomics, and in our present circumstances, with both TARP and the Spending/Stimulus Bill being enacted as means to counter the "crisis," this is one of those rare focal points that can have significant influence on the role of the State in the economy going forward.
Krugman's argument is that we are in an "economic black hole" or sorts, that is, to say, in a state where the laws of economics have broken down, a bizarro world where taxing savings at 100%, going protectionist, spending massive amounts on public works, etc all "make sense." "Krugman's black hole" is an economy at less than full employment caught in a liquidity trap. Krugman, the master of this bizarro world, is informing us which temporary incantations to accept and which to reject(Krugman is actually saying reject the magic spell of protectionism, it will wear off quickly!). However, Krugman, of course, is quite the advocate for the permanency of other magic spells, which will result in a more permanent, centralized coordination universe known as "Krugvania."(which will emerge out of the Black Hole).
For the most part, I'm not really being that facetious. That's what he is more or less saying.
Barro on the other hand is questioning the "Magic Multiplier" operating in a "Krugman Black Hole," noting that Krugman himself does not actually operate in peer-reviewed macroeconomics. The operational economic principle that Barro is arguing is that there are no free lunches and you can't have your cake and eat it too.
My own thoughts on the matter, which I have expressed elsewhere, is that the economy is an increasingly complex system that doesn't lend itself very well to any long-term macroeconomic treatment. Attempts to impose more centralized coordination on such complexity is bound to fail, and points of relaxation will be driven by Public Choice. "Krugvania" is not a very stable universe.
A little bit of a reminder...
...to all those on the board who have a problem with macro-economics theory (who should then have as big a problem with any theory poking it's head through right now as any other if they're being honest)
Hayek, a prominent member of the Austrian theory of economics, would also agree. As indicated in John's point above, it's simply not so cut and dry. And Hayek spoke at length
about just that.
What he's trying to say is that the mathematics of economics is not meant to quantify. As I said in my high-level explanation, Hayek's idea of economic theory is not to develop statements like,"You should increase spending on schools by $15 billion because it will increase GDP by .05% in 4 years". This is not his idea of the purpose of economics.
Hayek also explains that we cannot use the methods of Phyics simply because the concept of classification is not concrete. The obvious counterargument is that the same could be true if we used the observational powers of people with impared senses. But the problem is that one cannot define who does or does not have "impared senses" with regard to economics.
I don't really believe this will convince anyone to "convert" to the Austrian understandings of economics. But I hope it does shed light on where most libertarians lie in the scheme of things.
Looks like you can't even get a job if you're an economist...
No wonder these economists are getting cranky-- the recession is hitting close to home!
skymutt: accept no substitutes!
Markets clear? ;)
n/t
But...
...one of my econ profs told there was a high correlation between economic downturns, and increases in undergrads looking to earn a econ degree.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
I'm tempted to make a snarky comment
but I'll refrain from kicking them when they're down.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.