Nostalgianomics

Brink Lindsey has a new paper out called Nostalgianomics . Love that picture!
Many will recall by entries on his recent book The Conscience of a Liberal. See here and here
for a follow-up to the first.
Brink's paper is an answer to the premise of a large part of Krugman's book. Needless to say, Brink did a much, much better job than I ever could have.
Will Wilkinson
has the best intro which includes the executive summary:
For the quarter century or so after World War II, incomes were much more compressed than they are today. Since then, American society has experienced major changes in both political economy and cultural values. And both economic logic and empirical evidence provide reasons for concluding that those changes have helped to restrain low-end income growth while accelerating growth at the top of the income scale.
However, Krugman and his colleagues offer a highly selective and misleading account of the relevant changes. Looking back at the early postwar decades, they cherry-pick the historical record in a way that allows them to portray that time as an enlightened period of well-designed economic policies and healthy social norms. Such a rosy-colored view of the past fails as objective historical analysis. Instead, it amounts to ideologically motivated nostalgia. Once those bygone policies and norms are seen in their totality, it should be clear that nostalgia for them is misplaced. The political economy of the early postwar decades, while it generated impressive results under the peculiar conditions of the time, is totally unsuited to serve as a model for 21st-century policymakers. And as to the social attitudes and values that undergirded that political economy, it is frankly astonishing that self-described progressives could find them attractive.
- John's blog
- Login or register to post comments

Comments :
See reactions
here
.
There's quite a variety. Many from libertarians and some from liberals....like Matt Yglesias.
See that link plus Wilkinson's response here
.
Lindsey then responded...again courtesy of Will
with more comments.
do I have to read Krugmann's book to understand this?
I read the beginning of this paper, but it seems to be an explicit response to Krugmann's writings. I'm afraid that if I go ahead and read this without first readin Krugmann's work, that I'll miss the point and come away with a mistaken understanding of Krugmann's ideas.
...bu the issue is definitely interesting.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
I don't know that you NEED to read it.
Having read the book, I can tell you that Brink is presenting Krugman's points pretty accurately.
After all, he wouldn't write a 30+ page paper based on twisted strawman.
The book basically is an expanded edition of all of his columns on the New Deal, the "Great Compression" and how life was so much more equal and merry in the world he grew up in...that post WW2 50s-60s world.
Well...it was
Up to the point of economic equality.
Has anyone figured out why? Where does Krugman fall down?
The yellow-bars do need to recall that for some people equality is more important than "gross domestic prosperity".
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
The whole point is
the rooting out the real nature of that "equality". That's the whole point of Brink's paper.
He demonstrates how Krugman uses very selective data to paint a romantic and distorted picture of why income were closer together in the post war era. He goes on to show a lot of the very real influential factors that Krugman conventiently ignores that are products of the era that arise from social conditions and norms that Krugman would never advocate. That's part of the irony.
Besides, equality of outcome shouldn't be on the table, should it?
and there it is.
exactly
Says who?
Why not? I ask this not being in favor of equal outcomes, but being in favor of equal opportunity.
Speaking from a moral standpoint, isn't everyone in favor of equal outcomes? If you could will it to be so, wouldn't you will it that everyone received in proportion to what they put in, everyone got what they gave? Hard work would always pay off and laziness wouldn't.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
So it that a yes?
I was asking you.
Equal opportunity is not the same thing as equal outcome. But equal opportunity is what we strive for and have been striving for. Unfortunately, it's not so easy. If it were, it would have happened already. That's a tougher nut to crack I'm afraid. Too many social problems that don't have easy solutions.
I have different ideas
on what equality of opportunity means than most people. True equality of opportunity starts everyone off on the same rung of the ladder. True equality of opportunity would mean the end of passing on money to heirs, among other things.
Can we get to exact equality of opportunity? No. Even if we could, could we trust the government to do it correctly? Definitely not. And, of course, the most common way to make everyone equal is to make everyone poor.
The best I think we can do today is what I've made mention to a few times: government need not provide for us, but simply provide us the tools to enable us to provide for ourselves. That's really all I'm asking.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
Then, specifically, what do
Then, specifically, what do you see as a solution to the very example you mention?
So then, what would be done with the wealth created by the parent that would otherwise have been passed to the child? How has this process failed a government's citizens by missing some tool?
Obrurdity Stinerman...
It violates the very nature of our existence.
You will get it when you have a child.
Besides, equal opportunity means access to the playing field, not a guarantee of results on the playing field, and money does not change that, Barry is an example that in America, we've got that part covered.
Getting older, raising produtive kids, and affording them the opportunity to build on the prosperity and abundance you have made your lifes work is part of the American experience!
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Last post for tonight
And let me commend you for your civil tone. I appreciate your patience with me (if I'm trying it).
Then, specifically, what do you see as a solution to the very example you mention?
I assume you mean my last comment. I generally am an advocate for the negative income tax as espoused by Milton Friedman. The only place I am for direct government aid is for dependent children. Children cannot help if their parents spend their government checks (via that program) on alcohol or slot machines.
Give people cash money that need help, not subsidized food or rent. And if people still can't figure it out with help from Uncle Sam, then they can rot for all I care. That is to say, everyone gets a guaranteed minimum income that, if they tried, could keep them alive. If they can't live on that ... not my problem.
So then, what would be done with the wealth created by the parent that would otherwise have been passed to the child? How has this process failed a government's citizens by missing some tool?
In that scenario, the weath would be redistributed to other children who were less fortunate. The process failed in that some children recieved a $0 inheritance through no fault of their own and some children received a multi-million dollar inhereitance, also through no fault of their own.
Again, this is theoretical. I'm not advocating this at all IRL.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
I think I can simplify my
I think I can simplify my views then, based on your analogy. I believe I already have the tools to complete the work you see as necessary and just. But the government keeps borrowing them and refuses to give them back, even when I stop over and hint that I can see my tools sitting their on their workbench whith my initial engraved on the handle...
Hard work pays off when what
Hard work pays off when what you receive is, based on your own perception of value, more valuable that your blood/sweat/tears, etc. Otherwise it's just hard work. Ever heard the one about the ditch diggers who's pay was doubled every day they showed up to dig a hole and fill it back in? I can ellaborate if you'd like.
No, I am not in favor of equal outcomes, morally. Because I believe equal outcomes to be impossible. Therefore if I were to attempt equal outcomes, I would simply be impeding on liberty for an excersize in futility, which I feel is immoral.
But other people think differently, I suppose.
I believe in objective value
And I made reference to this in my recent story that was supposed to be a diary. There is a point (and it isn't a fine one) where someone is, frankly, stupid for doing a job at a certain wage. They are not getting what they deserve** and a lot less so.
Frankly, I think that's a dodge and a rather lame one at that. If I rephrase to make the assumption that equal outcomes is possible, can you answer? And I will accept an answer along the lines of "well, if you redefine 2+2=5, then anything is possible".
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
The land of equal outcomes
The land of equal outcomes exists in Star Trek. Not anywhere I've ever been familiar with. I don't see the point in an excersize in futility, so while I answer you buy saying that making 2+2=5 opens the possibility only Doc Brown
could adequately express, I'd like to hear why you think developing policy based on impossibilities is even remotely worthwhile? And I realize the irony in that I am also a free-marketeer.
You got a long, long, long way to go
with the idea of objective value.
What you describing is either a morphed version of subjective value even though you don't say so or you really believe there is a truly objective and intrinsic value in something that can be known outside of human input or circumstances.
If it's the former, you're not realizing that the act of saying someone is an idiot for doing a job at a certain wage is indeed SUBJECTIVE. And your oipinion is based on result of many subject values.
If it's the latter, good luck rehashing that defeated argument.
equal outcomes
First, I just want to mention that you seem to be defining "equal outcomes" in an odd way. I think most people would interpret "equal outcome" to mean that everyone has the same amount of wealth or income, or something along those lines.
You seem to be talking about equal pay for equal work -- or perhaps "equal rewards"...which is more reasonable than the above definition of "equal outcomes". Equal rewards is an "ambition sensitive" arrangement (to use the terminology of liberal political philosophers).
IN a vague and narrow sense, I think there may be some value in establishing a system with equal rewards. However, I think it would be an incredibly bad idea to focus on equal rewards in either a specific (seeing that two employees of a company get the exact same rewards) or universal sense (seeing that one line of work gets equal rewards to another line of work) because I don't believe that anything in the world is truely equal. In other words, there is no such thing as "equal work or "equal compensation".
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
The fallacy is that forceful
The fallacy is that forceful legislative manipulation is seen as equality. And please don't confuse this with an argument about any justice system.
I don't necessarily buy the argument
But someone who did buy it would reply with:
As a follower of Kant, I'd have to agree. Trying and failing is better than not trying at all.
But as I've said before on this blog (before you started posting), government need not put morality first when making decisions.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
Trying something which brings
Trying something which brings innevitable failure all while knowingly manipulating some outside of their own free will in the name of helping others is morally wrong, in my opinion. So trying is worse than not trying at all. Government has put morality first, as evidenced first by our Declaration of Independance, then our Constitution, and finally by our Bill of Rights. It's all morality. Every bit of government action is and will always be the enforcement of morality. It's just that it may not be your opinion of "right". But that does not make it amoral. Immoral, maybe. But not amoral.
I suppose if you knew the outcome
then it would be immoral. But social policy isn't that black and white otherwise we'd have given it up long ago. It would be self-evident and there'd be no discussion needed.
And as an aside, I assume (like most yellow bars) that you're not fond of Kant. :-)
I believe he got the basics right, but he totally went wrong with a lot of his conclusions.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
Which social policy has ever
Which social policy has ever been 100% succesful?
Realize that just because I don't wish any government to attempt the improvement of people's lives, it does not mean that I see no reason why a person acting on their own shouldn't. I do donate money to social causes, as it turns out. And I don't see it as throwing money away. I just don't like the idea of making it law.
Kant....no stiney no!
WTF?
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
strawmen are not necessarily intentional
Strawman arguments can arise simply from failing to grasp the argument presented by the other person.
Fortunately, I've gotten thru a good chunk of the paper and the discussion seems to stand on its own, independent of Krugman (i.e. it isn't a point-by-point refutation of Krugman's arguments)
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Krugman Style Economic Stimulus...
John Kerry recently explained that the reason the government doesn't stimulate the economy by letting us keep our own hard-earned money so we'll have more of it to spend is that we may not spend it properly. Intones Lurch
:
Whereas the government spends our money much more wisely. For example
:
Bailout money for California, which has spent itself to the brink of bankruptcy, is part of the Porkzilla package that just passed — so whether you live there or not, you paid for the pooping dog.
The government is stealing from us, our children, and our grandchildren by the $trillions. But at least they're preventing us from spending our money unwisely.
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman
Interesting references on tax-policy and income
This website has massive tables on the distribution of income and taxes between 1979 and 2002.
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=6133
Views it from all types of angles (e.g. pre-tax income, post-tax income, proportion of income taken by taxes, sources of tax, total tax contributions, etc.)
I didn't see anything about marginal tax rates. For that, try this:
http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/federalindividualratehistory-20080107...
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Misleading statistics
I found the follwoing text to be misleading (emphasis mine):
I glanced at that study (#70
) to see how they defined "labor". Turns out that they include entertainers, lawyers, bankers, and CEOs among this group. I understand why an economist may want to count income in that way, but this statistic does NOT support the story presented by Lindsey in this section-- lawyers, bankers, and CEOs are not groups of workers typically covered by unions. Furthermore, in labor contracts, they are typically referred to as "management", as distinct from either the workers or the owners. Finally, from a socio-economic perspective, these people are basically in the traditional "owners" class, and their high "wage" income is often contigent upon their personal or family wealth, so it is actually capital income to some extent.
The next section of Linsey's report discusses the income distribution in respect to "skill" or "seniority"--but neither of these variables normally include people who are doing fundamentally different jobs (factory worker vs. banker).
I'm not suggesting that this is intentional, just that it is misleading and the reader needs to be aware of this non-standard use of terminology.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Immigration: my favorite pro-equality argument
This quote represents one of my favorite examples intellecutal jujitsu:
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
impeccable logic
link? Sounds like an article you could read for a good laugh...
it's from Nostolgianomics
.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
It's true.
Brink's point is valid...however it's not frame of inequality within which equality crusaders like to operate. Will Wilkinson is also a big proponent of this point of view in his writings in support of the improvement of the human condition.
You don't think the scope is a bit wide on his point?
These are the kinds of things that immigration concentrates on instead of the more fundamental issue. They would not emmigrate if it was worse where they were going.
Not really.
The point is on absolute improvement in terms of both inequality (in so far as that matters) and, more importantly, the human condition.
Libertarians with a borderless and international POV have made this point and quite often.
If we ignore national borders and look purely at improving the human condition, we see the point being made.
People like Brink (and Will) usually throw in the inequality aspect with the more important human condition point when addressing the ideas of people like Krugman since equality...for its own sake...is such a big deal to them.
I agree.
I just thought that it was obvious that they would be immigrating to the US because their condition would improve. I suppose it should be studied to be sure... So is the only item of contention whether or not the "native" people suffer due to immigration?
It is a point of contention I suppose.
And lord knows, there are many, many, many ways to approach that point depending upon one's priors.
Why was the post-war era so productive?
When explaining the rapid growth of the post-war American economy (reprinted below). Lindsey leaves out one of my favorite explanations -- the destruction of the foreign industrial base during WWII, leaving the USA without competition in foreign and domestic markets. This view is based on the observation that the USA's total industrial dominance started after WWII and ended during the 1970s as other industrial countries (notably, Germany and Japan) had rebuilt and provided competition.
Around the same time, I think we became more reliant on imports of raw materials (especially oil), so this international competition would have hit us even if we tried to keep our domestic markets closed off.
Does anyone know of studies on these points?
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Labor's long retreat
Lindesy's paper seemed to ignore the issues discussed by Brad DeLong as "Labor's Long Retreat"
(via Kevin Carson). DeLong sums it up thusly:
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
"Breach of Trust", individualism, and class
DeLong describes a "breach of trust"
that occurred as a result of financial innovations of the 1980's:
This coincides with Lindey's description of the "end of the Organization Man", which he attributed to a general (and presumably homogeneous) cultural shift towards individualism. I think Lindsey failed to consider the class structure of such a shift: what portions of society embraced individualism first, and who had the power to change institutions to reflect their own cultural attitudes?
I think there is reason to believe that the shift away from the organization man and towards individualism occurred primarily in the upper classes, and was basically forced upon an unprepared working class--resulting in a shift of wealth upwards.
I say this occurred in the upper classes for a few reasons:
1) The "conventional wisdom" on this issue focuses on middle-class college students as the source of the individualistic attitudes of the 1960s. At least, they were the most vocal.
2) Lindesy himself suggested that conformism is the result of insecurity, while individualism is the result of security (including economic security). If that is the case, then individualism would clearly take hold among the middle and upper classes before the lower classes.
3) I still see this difference in attitudes today (as an academic scientist in Pittsburgh). While most scientists come from middle-class backgrounds and embrace the uncertainty and independence of research, I've seen people from lower class backgrounds who have a lot of trouble with this lack of structure. When discussing values (both for personal and economic relationships), the "working class" people (at work and in the city at large) tend to focus on loyalty and stability -- they often want a definite connection between effort and reward, which can only be guaranteed by a cartel. This is quite different from the "professionals" who are happy to take risks in the interest of possibly achieving big things (while also being confident of not being turned out on the street if the gamble doesn't pay off).
We can also ask whether "free agency" also has a class bias: it is much easier to move to a different city for a better job if your salary enables you to fly home on a regular basis, or if your friends and family tend to be scattered around the country already. Again, we can ask whether this "individualism" was a society-wide phenomenon, or whether it is just an example of the powerful people taking care of themselves while abandoning the people that they have power over.
Finally, we can ask how long the bosses can preach (and live) an ideal of individualism and still find good help? There is still the notion in our society that workers owe loyalty to their employers -- that they should do their best to complete their assignments, and in general should be thankful that they've been "given a job".
What happens if workers abandon this sense of obligation, and start looking out for themselves?
This is what Kevin Carson suggests
that they do.
So maybe this period of income inequality is simply the result of the fact that workers have yet to embrace the selfishness that has already consumed their bosses.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
That's all quite interesting, Adam but
I still can't shake the logic of the simple explanation in the "skills gap".
As an economy becomes more advanced (especially technologically), more complex (especially demographically and in terms of market opportunities) and more wealthy, there are more avenues motivated individuals to capitalize on valuable and specialized goods and services.
This doesn't make the less able or less motivated any worse off. It simply lifts the ceiling to which professionals and entrepreneurs can advance. And while it benefits society as a whole, it makes for stats that are easy to find fault with on an equality level. And the immigration makes it look even worse.
If anything, it shows me that competition in the higher levels of jobs and entrepreneurship is weaker because not enough people are reaching for it....or able** to reach for it. It also means that that is where the greatest perceived value is. And by "perceived value", I don't mean in a moral sense. I mean that strictly in a monetary sense....much like how while most don't consider the "work" of pro athletes "valuable", it still commands high pay whether we like it or not.
**Of course, that word: "able" above is a loaded word. It means a lot of different things.
ability
I'll assume you mean "able" in its most limited sense -- referring to a particular opportunity at a particular place and time.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
creative destruction?
I see creative destruction here. Creative people find new opportunties, and by exploiting these opportunities they upend the existing economic relationships in society.
If they expected to simply go to work, do a job, and get a good pay -- then it does. The innovations at the top constantly reshape the reality of people at the bottom. It also changes their social environment, which is often more important than simple weealth.
Disruption is the price of progress. I'm not saying that we should stop innovating, but we should be especially careful when our own prosperity is dependent on maintaining good relationships with others who aren't as adept at navigating a constantly-changing world.
...this is getting away from the original issue (whether inequality has been aggravated by undesirable social changes or biased government policy)
good night...
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
One quibble, Adam
I understand the first sentence. Obivously, in the long run, that is net plus. The short term is where the tug of war of perception take place.
But on the second sentence, I'm genuinely not quite sure what that means as it relates to the matter at hand. What do you mean?
could it be that
social unrest and protest has the potential to interfere with your prosperity.
When those garbage collectors get mad at 'the man' go on strike, and protest in the streets, or get their faces in the newspaper with populist rhetoric it is prosperity interupted on both sides. Much better to give them a nickle raise and keep them smiling while getting the garbage off the streets.
I'm only half stupid
Like I said
I'll leave it at that.
The perception
is that the very very wealthy have been very very busy doing whatever it takes to protect their wealth.
The other perception, which I suggest is a looming reality, is that they have been protecting their wealth at great cost to the overall economic health and security of the rest of us.
I'm only half stupid
Superstar markets -- promoted by state polciy
From Lindsey:
Yes. First, the government has gone out of its way to expand the markets available to capital managers and copyright owners. In particular, I think of agreements like NAFTA, which only reduced tarriffs on manufactured goods if the other country expanded their protections for capitalist institutions like intellectual property and absentee ownership. In other words, these agreements increased competition for the working class while increasing opportunities for the owners and managers.... with American consumers being merely a bargaining chip.
The Federal government also goes to great lengths to homogenize the domestic market, increasing the opportunities for company managers and copyright producers. This comes in the form of homogenizing state commercial regulations, and also subsidizing the deployment of transportation and communication infrastructure (which admittedly is not a new policy).
Finally, if we just focus on the superstar entertainers (copyright producers), take note that the government extended the duration of copyright
in 1962, 1976, and 1998-- the last extension was 1909. These extensions were made even as the audience for copyrighted work was expanding massively -- through increased population, increased income per capita, and international agreements securing protection for American copyrights. If anything, copyright terms (a government policy) should have been decreasing during that period, those other trends would have been sufficient to propel the production of new works.
Similarly, the anti-trust exemption given to professional sports (along with local subsidies) probably contributes a bit to the extreme incomes of these atheletes.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
Lindsey misses a big argument for minimum wage
Lindsey wrote:
Proponents of the minimum wage often point to it having an impact on several tiers of low-income workers. This is consistant with the MW providing information about what unskilled labor can earn on the open market -- causing more skilled workers to raise their wage demands.
I'm not sure about the evidence for this point, but Lindsey shouldn't have ignored it when discussing the effect of the MW.
In my expert opinion, you should do what I tell you to do.
A post about the 1950s
that is related to the premises of Nostalgianomics.
Living Wage
by Megan McArdle:
Buckle your seatbelts...here we go again?
Connie Hair notes
Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman