Thursday Open Thread
We seem to be eating up the Open Threads lately. Here's a fresh one.
Some news items after the jump.
In the news:
Obama decides not to release those torture photos after all. The Left is upset, the Right appeased .
Space Shuttle Atlantis crew gets to work on the Hubble telescope .
Max Borders has a prescription for the new GOP . It looks like mostly good ideas to me, so I'm sure actual Republicans will hate it.
55% of Americans confident that Obama will make a good choice for SCOTUS.
Submitted by Spiritual Lefty on Thu, 2009-05-14 08:15
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...OOOOkay. You tell me?
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
An aside (pet peeve)
I'm less likely to watch a linked video if a poster went with the 640X505 embed option, or read a post with changes in font size or read an article if it's copy and pasted and put in block quotes. I just might been jaded by people back at college that stood outside the student union with a blown horn telling everybody that they will burn...but I digress.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Me too
Well, not for the reasons you list, but I'm not inclined to watch a video (or check a link, etc.) without some idea of why I should or what topic I might find there. And hugely long posts scare me ;-) It's nothing personal to anyone here.
In other words, an intro and a synopsis are nice to have :-)
Makes sense
nt
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Hmm...Don't know how to select size, just copy embed and go
...sorry.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
There's a little icon to the
There's a little icon to the right by the "embed"
It looks like a "gear" it should say "customize" when you move your mouse over it.
After you click on that icon, the window extends and gives a few options on size.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Thanks, I'll try it
;-)
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Are you suggesting that
the CIA would never lie? That is to laugh.
Even Barry Goldwater stated that the CIA had lied to him, when he was on the Intelligence Committee.
Barry Goldwater was so furious about being lied to by the CIA that on the floor of Congress he started to read the secret report that the US was mining off the seas of Nicaragua. Pat Monyahan was so furious about the CIA deception that he resigned his position as Vice Chair of the Intelligence Committee.
The CIA's whole existence is based on creating cover for their secret often illicit operations.
This is not to say that a politician would never exaggerate.
It would be wise for the GOP to say that they were also misled, as they likely were, since this puts the GOP in a position of seeming to support torture.
I'm only half stupid
Good idea from Republicans
There may be hope for the party yet. This is better, IMHO, than the Max Borders Global Warming strategy that I linked to above, but is even more at odds with current Republican leadership:
I don't know all the details, but it seems like a decent idea. Unfortunately, I doubt it will get much support, with most Dems lining up for cap & trade, and most Reps lining up against anything at all.
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
Civil unrest in Guatemala
"YouTube Video Sends Guatemala Into Crisis "
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
The Time link
Has more detail.
Very interesting.
It's not surprising that Obama pulled this stunt.
Since Obama refuses to release the pictures, how and why should be be trusted to make a decent choice when it comes to appointments to the SCOTUS?
This was a LONG time coming...well before the POTUS Election, and the fact that Obama voted for the FISA Bill, as well as for the continued funding for our Iraq and Afghanistan wars should've sounded an alarm. It should've been a wake-up call for more people. I wrote in my own ticket during the last POTUS election, because I figured that, no matter which one of the two POTUS Candidates got in, be it Obama or McCain, that we'd continue to get screwed.
Obama can't even manage his own finances, let alone ours!
H/T - S&L
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Heh
And yet now he's a millionaire. Amazing how borrowing money can actually help you in the long run isn't it? Thanks for providing yet another example of this phenomenon!
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
This much is true, for Obama, its about power, not politics
...or policies.
Read more from columnist Jim Geraghty
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Duran Duran
Someone that wrote for the National Review and is obsessed with Dan Rather, and didn't know Duran Duran tries to paint a Democrat as a Evil Villain?
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Online discussion site member
....over thinks post, fails to address the factual parallels in content, and instead attempts character assassination of source.
Now that's a strawman if I've ever seen one!
I can't wait to see how you attack this one...remember you can always say something about George's Mother in need be, it makes about as much sense as your last effort;
George Will
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Strawman?
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/straw-man.html
If one pointed out that some writer that doesn't like "[football]" wrote and article not favorable to "[football]" and that writer previously claiming that it's "[barbaric]"
That's not a strawman.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Okay then
What was the point, how did what you posted, in any way address the factual content or truthfulness of my post?
It did not.
It was an intellectual diversion, an attempt to marginalize the content by avoiding it all together and instead attacking the character of it's source.
If it walks like a strawman....
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Have you read the latest
in the New York Times?
I'm only half stupid
I'm not a fan, why, link maybe?
nt
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Just
teasing you source credibility! =)
I'm only half stupid
Poisoning the Well?
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/poisoning-the-well.html
Poisoning the Well....
It was an editorial piece, not a statement of facts.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Remember the meltdown....?
Were you or any of these other folks even around in 08? Or have you already erased it from you mind.
Is there amnesia about all the billions and billions in write downs around the world, while the global markets crashed.
I'm only half stupid
You mean the one that you guys spent a trillion bucks on
...and what has that bought us exactly?
You're right, the crisis itself was bad enough, Obama's spending is just an insult after the injury.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
What do you think
would have happened if we had done exactly nothing?
Do you have any idea at all how serious the situation was at the time?
I don't like it, and I feel like we were all blackmailed, yet I still feel we had to do something.
A world where no banks are lending to any other banks, is a total credit freeze, and a drop off the cliff into a world wide depression, unrest, instability, and likely war.
In the simplest terms, we are just replacing the money that was blown up or stolen from our financial system.
I'm only half stupid
Well no ML.
Very very little of the money has even been spent.
All those "shovel ready projects" stand silent.
The banks that were coerced to take TARP money, just want to repay it and part ways with the government.
Chrysler and GM are going chapter 11 as they should anyway.
Gee, it makes you wonder what would have happened if we had let the market correct itself?
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Well that's what I asked you
What would have happened, given that the biggest banks in the world ran out of capital to lend.
As in a total credit freeze.
Banks operate on overnight lending. It's how businesses make payroll. It's how insurance companies pay claims. It's how you get your pension check.
The overnight lending ceased and froze on Sept 18th.
So what would have happened if all overnight lending in the global banking system stopped?
Remembering that the US banks and AIG were also involved in debt obligations to China, Japan and many other foreign countries.
I'm only half stupid
Well I don't know if you've been paying close attention
....but we're finding out
as we speak.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Point of order
That is NOT my question.
My question is what would have happened if we had just said, screw it, let's let the biggest global investment banks in America all collapse at the same time. (Which is why Hank Paulson came begging in desperation to the Congress for the TARP money in the first place,)
I'm only half stupid
Without writing extensively
Some weak Banks would have gone belly up, just as they should have, like Chrysler. People would have been fine as the FDIC would covered there deposits, the greedy money mongers you so often attribute blame to would have been sunk, and so on.
However, we would have lived through those things, and our country would be poised for an amazing economic comeback, learning the lessons to be learned, we would have moved into the very same mode the government asks of us today, we'd of tightened our fiscal belts, and really, truly, solved these things, instead of doing the unthinkable and burdening our nations future generations with staggering debt.
Certainly, creating even more unsustainable government overhead, and the tangled web we weave when we mingle private and public assets, as we have today, is not the solution.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Margin calls from
Israeli banks, that US banks could not make payment on would be no problem?
Margin calls from countries all around the world....... asking US banks for their money back.
You so oversimplify the magnitude of the hole these investment wizards created.
I don't like the TARP especially much either, and I don't really like the way it has been implemented but I don't think there was another alternative, without drastic and severe changes in the US lifestyle One could argue letting the banks blow up and everyone take a run for the money, until the banks ran out of cash would have been good for the world creating a perhaps more local rural systems.
Further, given that European banks were being bailed out, that would have them a huge competitive advantage if the US banks went out of existence.
Citibank has many branches in Latin America. Imagine the unrest it would have created if citibank just shut it's door to all our South American friends. Sorry out of money. Tough luck.
I think we could agree that we were all kind of blackmailed into the TARP thing. Bailing out seeming crooks is not delightful. But the alternative would have been extremely drastic changes to all things USofA.
I'm only half stupid
Insightful post ML
I've never heard you speak in those terms before;
I had always heard you defend it and go so far as too call for more.
I agree with you, and will always wish we got the chance to see what that landscape would have looked like.
Thomas Sowell has written a book I am reading right now called Meltdown. I recommend it. Maybe one night we can talk more about why all this really happened.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Downsizing is one thing
a complete collapse of US banks is quite another.
I wouldn't mind change, but am not really into change that is that drastic all at one time. I really do think it would have been tent city time, with the added bonus of national security implications due to unrest in foreign lands all to eager to take advantage of weakness.
I feel blackmailed like all of us do. My solution and yours differ because I think spending is the right solution at this time, not because I love spending, but I don't see any other option. I regret that the stimulus bill was not bigger.
I'm only half stupid
I would have had little or none.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Are you confusing
the TARP and the stimuilus bill? I think you might be.
I'm only half stupid
No, I disgree with both
If it turned out we needed some government spending to jump start the economy some, which I am skeptical about, but if so I would only do things that needed doing on a federal level;
Really secure our borders. Fix roads and bridges. Defense. Etc.
But I would also do many unpopular things as you know;
Eliminate the DOE, IRS, Fed, reform SS & Medicare, and cut most foreign aid, cut spending and give states back their money.
Oh well, we're a long way from there, I don't think you have much to worry about - unless Obama does spend us into the abyss and there is a backlash and call for federalism and reform! ;-)
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
OK, you've piqued my interest here ...
what exactly IS the downside to a complete US banking collapse, at least as you see it?
Meta: This post is a serious comment.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4There are National Security Implications
Alongside domestic instability leaving the US vulnerable to whackos who want to attack us when we are weak.
I'm only half stupid
You do realize, I can only assume, ...
that this doomsday scenario of which you speak would never actually happen, right? And even if it did it would be a landslide boom for us (which is why it would never happen).
Let us assume that our banks actually owe this huge and devastating amount of money to foreign lenders as you say. Let us further assume that the foreign interests actually all called in their loans at the same time and our banks could NOT cover the cash requirements.
This would, I assume, force our banks into Chapter 11 where their assets would be divied up between their creditors who would be LEGALLY REQUIRED to accept repayment for quite literally pennies on the dollar and to forgive the remaining amounts. These foreign interests would be totally screwing themselves and letting our banks completely off the hook for this huge amount of capital that you claim would be in play.
All in all that sounds like a pretty good deal, actually. Burrow a huge pile of money and then only have to pay back a very small percentage? Woo hoo! <singing> We're in the money ... we're in the money! </singing> *
--------------------------------------------------------
* Disclaimer: I have not read up on all the details in this area so I reserve the right to adjust this opinion in the face of new information.
Meta: This post is a serious comment.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4You can look at it that way
or you can wonder why anyone would want to do business with the US.
In the investment banking industry if you can't keep your word by paying your debts, who wants to do business with you.
The US would suffer a huge loss of standing in the world. Actually we already have. Countries that copied our banking business model and then went belly up aren't really that willing to follow the leader anymore when it comes to the US investment model. Since a large part of our economy is dependent on foreign trade, we need other countries to want to do business with us and trust that when they ask to be paid, the money will be in the bank to pay them.
The small country of Iceland went completely bankrupt, drunk on Wall Streets high risk fancy investment models.
The US couldn't afford to foot any of the bills so Russia stepped in and bought or bailed out Iceland. Do you think that is good for America's image and standing in the world.
I'm only half stupid
+4
I was going to make that very point! :)
Meta: This post is a serious comment.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4But I thought you were against credit?
That credit card debt was the source of all evil in this latest crash. Now you want people to borrow again? Consider me confused by your erratic thought processes.
Meta: This post is a serious comment.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4I don't think you understand.
Credit a loan by the banks who sell you money for a fee (interest). Very simple and easy to understand.
The borrowing (credit) from toxic assets was an investment in thin toxic air insured with a fantasy.
The borrowing (credit) we are doing now is much more rational and straightforward and is essentially an investment in America, insured with a "Yes We Can" spirit.
I'm only half stupid
Where did the toxicity in the assets come from?
nt
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Unrestrained greed
and an ingenious math model proving that leveraged risk was not risky.
I'm only half stupid
No really, if the products were viable
...in other words, if they were cash flowing, we would never had seen this, right?
So what were, and where did the non viable products come?
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Those damnable poor folk
It's all those poor people that wanted a home of there own. It's all the poor people's fault.
Is that the answer you want to hear?
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
You are an odd person at times, too much pent up liberal rage?
But, to respond to your snarky question, no, I don't think so, I know a lot of poor people who pay their mortgages every month, year after year.
You are right in some respect, there were those that when the chips came due, and having nothing in the deal to lose, just walked away from their responsibility.
But SL, I wouldn't say those were only poor people, many wealthy people refinanced themselves into unsustainable economic situations as well.
...oh, and chill out man. ;-)
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Well, you're fishing for something
So I threw out an ugly carp to see if it would make you make your point, but I guess not. So what are you fishing for? The stupid fed interest rate policy seems to be what you are looking for now, based on your last question to ML. Is that the answer you want to hear?
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
The products were not viable
was the problem.
The reason they were not viable was because of an insane glut of cheap money that appealed to everyone's American Dream.
You could refinance your house and build that swimming pool you had always dreamed of. Wall Street was thrilled to buy your unpaid loan, chop it into mathematically calculated no risk chunks', sell it off to Norway, and mark it down as capital.
I'm only half stupid
+4
Excatly, so how did that come about ML? (In clear un-colorful terms)
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
What's your point
Go ahead and get to it.
I'm only half stupid
I am interested in your understanding
...of our initial Q, what put the toxicity in the markets, what exactly went bad, and just why?
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
It all started with the Silverado Savings
and Loan Crises.
To bail out of that mess a new financial instrument was created called the Credit Default Swap, that supposedly only the most sophisticated investors could comprehend.
I'm only half stupid
Well true, but that in and of itself is not the problem, right?
Credit derivative contracts of all sorts, like credit default swaps, are essentially just a premium paid investment insurance.
I would agree in part that CDS's led to a perception problem for the Bear Stearns of the world, as their CDS spread ballooned leading up to the sale to JP Morgan. And AIG didn't care who they were issuing CDS's to, so they got hit pretty hard when the phones started to ring and the guys on the other end were fellas looking for their payoffs.
But still, that singular financial instrument, and those particular results are merely symptomatic, what I am asking you is; in your opinion what is the underling credit event that ultimately triggered those payoffs?
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
The American Dream
to have it all now, and pay for it later.
The credit crises exemplifies a kind of mindset of American materialism.
If I had to pick only one event, I would pick the repeal of Glass Steigel in 1999.
I'm only half stupid
Bear in mind, however, that
the repeal of Glass Steigel occurred under Bill Clinton's watch.
Glass-Steagall...really?
I think you know better
than that.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
The relevant point
at least for me, is that Clinton is saying the mergers of different types of banks, that was allowed by the repeal of Glass Steagal, has 'saved the system' from the mergers of different types of banks that Glass Steagal allowed.
I'm only half stupid
Oh my....Say it ain't so Joe....not again?
These
just seem to be getting progressively worse;
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
What in the world is up with the Democratic leadership?
I'd say they lost their ability to think clearly
, but they're liberals and so had long ago lost that qulity, I'm at a loss.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
I know I'm late to the party here, but
I think it's disgraceful that Obama has refused to release the torture photos, and that the idea that releasing the photos will inflame pre-existing anti-American sentiment abroad and put our troops in even more danger would be laughable if it wasn't so dangerously stupid and irresponsible. In fact, our troops, not to mention untold numbers of innocent civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan have been in grave danger for a long time, and anti-Anerican sentiment abroad, which has existed for the past 50 some odd years, was furthur stoked already by reckless policies by the G. W. Bush Administration, which Obama seems to be vindicating by his actions so far. It's equally disgusting and disgraceful that Obama's not only keeping American troops in Iraq, but extending our war into Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan. Total hypocrisy on his part. I don't like or trust Obama very much, which is why I wrote in my own ticket instead of voting for him at the polls at the POTUS election last November.
I also might add that part of the reason that the American public ultimately turned against our Viet Nam war was the fact that pictures and all were released, and the carnage the USA was creating over there was coming home to our living rooms.
So gov run Medicaid and SS are so out of control...
NEWSFLASH - We're broke!
Get how Obama nuances this one, it's an Obama classic;
See just how he juggles the government managing SS and medicaid so poorly, how huge of a problem they are because of that, and the plain fact that they are simply unsustainable...
...with his major objective of desperately wanting government to take over health care!
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
There is waste fraud and abuse
in any system, whether it's government or private. Stating the goal of cutting down wasteful spending is a good thing.
One could make the same claim about the military. It's a government run program and is filled with waste fraud and abuse.
Neither the military nor our health care should be a for profit. Yet we see all kinds of private contracting schemes that use defense and health care as an excuse to favor certain companies with lucrative contracts for medical equipment and military equipment.
I'm only half stupid
Investor Dread - The people of the world rise up and unite! LOL!
I've been waiting for this
...
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
The %$@%%$ing Bloomberg links never work.
So don't bother posting them. Their website sucks like that.
Alternatively, always post the title of the piece so that we can at least search for it.
Thanks.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4test
test
hrm, even the link they give for one to email it, didn't work.
In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,
Here you go GR....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akW9GQw.X9KM&refer=w...
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
Thanks for the attempt ...
but what part of "never work" confuses you? :) Sorry, don't mean to be mean, let me expound a bit more.
I have tried to use Bloomberg links in the past. I have NEVER gotten them to work. Their server always takes you to a not found page. It is something about the way they manage sessions which are unique to you as a reader. It is a stupid a** way to run your site but that's what they do. You can't paste their links here AT ALL. They DO NOT WORK.
So, if you post the title of the piece people can uniquely find it using their serach.
Meta: This post is a serious comment.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4Note for skymutt ...
it now appears that the "markets" are finally coming to the same conclusion that I did 2 months ago
! The same conclusion that you poo pooed as unfounded, i.e. that printing money is going to drive up inflation and thereby devalue the dollar. This increase in the bond rates is driven by the fear of inflation because of hte massive debt just like I said. You wanted market confirmation, here you go. :P
Meta: This post is a VERY serious comment. :)
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4I am really pissed about this!
Plese read the rest of this
.
Great Spirits Have Always Encountered Violent Opposition From Mediocre Minds...~ A. Einstein
OMG. ANOTHER example of Obama = Bush.
Where's the outrage over the politicization of the DOJ? Obama uses his political appointees to provide cover for the New Black Panthers of all people? So much for Mr. Nice Guy, Obama. Now that he's in office we have ACORN lining up to commit registration fraud, among other charges, and now the New Black Panther as his "enforcers".
And the really ironic point is that the Democrats keep whining about how the Republicans are the party of voter intimidation. Here we have video evidence that the truth, no surprise to me, is exactly the opposite. Just another example of the Democrats projecting themselves onto others.
Meta: This post is a hyperbolically worded serious comment.
I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4