Brilliant lecture on regulation
It's not new, but I just recently stumbled on this very insightful lecture, examining some of the fundamental differences between how economists and non-economists think about government regulation: http://www.aei-brookings.org/admin/authorpdfs/page.php?id=1144
In case you haven't heard of the speaker:
Sam Peltzman is one of the few economists, and probably the only regulatory economist, to have an effect named after him -- the "Peltzman effect." The Peltzman effect arises when people adjust their behavior to a regulation in ways that counteract the intended effect of the regulation. So, for example, when the government passes a seatbelt law, some drivers may respond by driving less safely.
Say what? Don't worry, Peltzman has the facts to back it up. His research found that after government-mandated introduction of numerous car safety features, "occupant deaths per accident did indeed fall substantially compared to what might otherwise have been expected. But this was entirely offset by a combination of more accidents and more fatalities to nonoccupants such as pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists, whom the devices did not protect."
Still skeptical? You aren't alone. As Peltzman explains, "This finding met with considerable skepticism from economists and noneconomists. Unlike most noneconomists, most of my colleagues accepted the underlying logic and reserved their skepticism for whether the facts fit the logic." Further research, however, was kind to his hypothesis. For example:
A recent article by Alma Cohen and Liran Einav (2003) on the effects of mandatory seatbelt use laws is reasonably representative. This particular study tdoes not find increased nonoccupant deaths to be an important part of the story. But it shares with most such studies the crucial bottom line: The real-world effect of these laws on highway mortality is substantially less than it should be if there was no offsetting behavior. They conclude that the increased belt usage occasioned by these laws should, in the absence of any behavioral response, have saved more than three times as many lives as were in fact saved.
Peltzman goes on to give unrelated examples -- the Americans with Disabilities Act may actually harm the ability of the disabled to find jobs, while the Endangered Species Act may actually promote more rapid destruction of endangered animals' habitats. He then insightfully notes:
My examples of offsetting behavior drip with irony: The highway safety act promotes reckless driving; the disabilities act disemploys the disabled; the endangered species act promotes clear cutting and suburban sprawl. This ironic aspect, I think, accounts for some of hte appeal of the concept to economists as well as some of the controversy about it. We economists tend to prefer unexpected results to expected, especially if they illustrate the power of the simple logic of our discipline. But we are also skeptical of unexpected new results, and the rest of the polity has resisted them at least since Adam Smith was pushing free trade more than two hundred years ago.
And you should be skeptical. Here I am telling you how offsetting behavior has compromised three significant attempts to improve our lives. Yet each of them is a sacred political cow. Not one is in any serious danger of substantial alteration. How can that be? [...] It has become routine, especially in this area of social regulation, for economists to find regulation with compromised benefits or with negative net benefits. There must be a very powerful force that protects such regulation.
He argues that in a growing economy, most aspects of our lives gradually improve over time, with or without regulation. We see regulations being passed, and we see our lives improving, so what's the problem? Simple: we're better off than we used to be, sure, but with smarter government policy we could have been better off still. "The economic analysis begins by posing a counterfactual: What would the world have been like without the regulation? Then the analyst compares the actual world to the counterfactual. Regulation is deemed successful only if its intended effects are realized to a greater degree than could reasonably been expected according to the counterfactual benchmark." On the other hand, non-economists don't pay attention to such counterfactual scenarios -- "the political process seems to require evidence of malfunction in some absolute sense before there is serious pressure for change."
He gives examples from his personal history, including his work on freight regulation (trucking, rail, and air freight). Economists widely recognized in the 70s that the regulations currently in place were completely ridiculous -- the Interstate Commerce Commission had endless rules on what truck drivers could and couldn't do. Not just safety regulations -- these regulations were truly ridiculous, serving no purpose but to stifle competition on behalf of the incumbent monopolists: (http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/TruckingDeregulation.html )
From 1940 to 1980, new or expanded authority to transport goods was almost impossible to secure unless no one opposed an application. Even if the proposed service was not being offered by existing carriers, the ICC held that a certificated trucker who expressed a desire to carry the goods should be given the opportunity to do so; the new applicant was denied. The effect was to stifle competition from new carriers.
Purchasing the rights of an existing trucker became the only practical approach to entering a particular market. By the seventies the authority to carry certain goods on certain routes was selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars. Because the commission disapproved of "trafficking" in rights, it was hostile to mergers and purchases and attempted to restrict authority as much as possible. The result was often bizarre. For example, a motor carrier with authority to travel from Cleveland to Buffalo that purchased another carrier or the carrier's rights to go from Buffalo to Pittsburgh was required to carry goods destined for Pittsburgh through Buffalo, even though the direct route was considerably shorter. In some cases carriers had to go hundreds of miles out of their way, adding many hours or even days to the transport.
Even so, it took the complete collapse of the railroad industry to prod government into action to end this absurdity.
A more controversial example Peltzman gives is that of the FDA. His research has found that "the proof-of-efficacy requirement [for new drugs] was a public health disaster, promoting much more sickness and death than it prevented. Nothing I have seen since has moved me to change that conclusion -- the disaster is ongoing. But there is no realistic chance that this regulation will share the well-deserved fate of the Interstate Commerce Commission anytime soon."
The argument is simple: the efficacy requirement delays the introduction of new drugs, costing many times more lives than might be wasted by the introduction of ineffective drugs.
In some cases, it is a cost well spent. Some ineffective drugs are screened out, and the extra testing catches some that are dangerous as well. But every effective drug that ultimately makes it to market also incurs the time cost [...] the extra time means that some potential beneficiaries [...] will die or suffer while the FDA sifts the test results. My reading of the available evidence was simply that this latter cost far outweighs any benefit. [...] I found that the unregulated market was very quickly weeding out ineffective drugs prior to 1962. Their sales declined rapidly within a few months of introduction, and there was thus little room for the regulation to improve on market forces.
So why do we put up with such a foolish policy? Again, simple:
Medical progress of all kinds continues. Beneficial new drugs, however delayed, ultimately do make it to market. Mortality rates decline on the order of 1 percent per year [...] And, perhaps more important, the deaths of which I speak are counterfactual deaths, not deaths that can be directly connected to any regulatory malfeasance. [...] the actual victims of the regulation did not swallow a bad FDA-approved pill. They merely failed to swallow a good one in time and never knew what they had missed. As long as medical progress continues, a case for reform built on anonymous, unknown victims of regulation is going to be difficult politically. Indeed, the defenders of the status quo make good use of the progress. They will tell you how much regulation has contributed to the progress and what dire consequences would follow from any meaningful regulatory change.
Very interesting stuff, and well reasoned. Hope it helps elucidate how we economics geeks think about the world...
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Comments :
He says that seat belt laws
He says that seat belt laws save only a third of the lives they would have saved, absent the perversity of drivers. Fine. But then he calls this "regulatory failure". Excuse me? One third is still greater than zero. Lives are still saved. His choice of words here makes me suspect an anti-regulation bias on his part that goes beyond his eponymous effect.
In this particular case, I would argue that this regulation is good even if the offset were complete, and no net lives were saved. The lives saved are those who are reasonable and prudent, who do not say, "Woo-hoo, I have seat belts, I can drive like a maniac now!" The lives lost are those of the reckless and stupid, some of whom would find other interesting ways to take themselves out of the game anyway.
Read the rest of the evidence
Fatalities per mile driven declined 3.5% a year both before and after the passage of the NHTSA. Where is the evidence that the NHTSA had any net effect one way or another on safety? What about Peltzman's finding that increases in pedestrian, etc. deaths fully offset reductions in passenger deaths?
(He tells us that some of the laws seem to have been fully offset, while others were less than fully offset. Depends on which study you read and which law you are talking about.)
Peltzman hasn't even mentioned the other big issue. New cars are, all other things being equal, safer and less polluting than old cars. Any regulation that increases the price of a new car (whether safety, environmental, or whatever) reduces the likely rate of turnover of the car fleet -- people will stay with their old car because they can't afford a new one. Therefore, such regulations has an unintended side effect of *hurting* safety and *hurting* the environment from keeping those old cars on the road longer.
This is one of the primary reasons that CAFE is vastly inferior to a gas tax in promoting fuel efficiency. CAFE only applies to new cars. A gas tax applies to all cars, new or old. A gas tax creates an incentive to replace your old junker with a new fuel-efficient car; CAFE does not, and may even reduce your incentive to do so.
The opposite seems likely to be true. There are usually two or more parties in every accident (ignoring of course crashes with inanimate objects). If I drive more recklessly because I am now wearing a seat belt or my car has an airbag, I will be safer, but I am more likely to injure *other* people -- people who were wearing a seat belt *before* the law was passed, or pedestrians/bicyclists.
This hypothesis (the "reasonable and prudent" are the ones who are actually being hurt by these laws, not the "reckless and stupid") seems to be confirmed by the evidence Peltzman presents.
Effect of regulation/ higher cost.
Given that new car prices have not risen sharply over the past 10 or 20 years with respect to overall prices of goods, it would be hard to argue that new regulations, such as airbag requirements and the like have added so much cost to the vehicles as to hurt safety becasue people can't afford them.
Also, people may be willing to pay a little more for a vehicle that is safer. Consumers are more aware of these types of features today than they were a few decades ago.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Faulty logic
I don't follow your reasoning.
The trends in car prices over the last 40 years (since the NHTSA was passed) result from thousands of factors. Government regulations are just one of them. Some of those factors have pushed car prices up, others down.
The real question is not whether car prices have, overall, gone up or down since the passage of these laws. The question is: are car prices lower or higher than they would be in the absence of some of these regulations? In some cases, there is probably no effect -- for example, mandating seat belts probably has no effect on car prices today, because cars would have seat belts anyway. In other cases, like environmental regulations, it seems pretty clear that they do make cars more expensive to build.
If this is the case, then this would constitute an argument that the laws have no effect one way or another (they mandate something that would have happened anyway).
Allow me to clarify if possible
Let's jsut consider regulations that mandate certain safety features in vehicles.
I disagree. Both questions are important. The first question is important, because, as you mention in your prior comment, affordability is the important factor. If regulatory burden is causing sharp increases in the price of a car with respect to inflation, that would impact affordability... people who had previously purchased new cars before regulation would have to adjust their budgets to afford a new car, all other factors being equal.
Unless safety regulations are making new cars unaffordable en masse to people who have previously purchased new cars, the cost effect that Peltzman speaks of would not cause less vehicles with the safety feature to appear on the road than without regulation.
No. Let me rephrase to make what I said clearer here:
Some people will be willing to pay a little more for a vehicle that is safer. Some consumers are more aware of these types of features today than they were a few decades ago.
So obviously, the law does make a difference to those consumers who would be ignorant of the safety features, wouldn't care, or would be unwilling to pay for the marginal cost increase caused by the safety feature.
Besides, regulation obviously speeds the safety feature to market. Sure, you can say that all cars would have seatbelts now without regulation, and you may be right about that... but how much longer would have it taken? How many cars would have been manufactured without seatbelts? Would the seatbelts been up to current standards imposed by regulation?
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Affordability is a sliding scale
Actually, the cost effect is something I am bringing up and that did not appear in the lecture.
Does a price increase of $100 render a car "unaffordable"? Depends on who you are talking to, but one likely response of people to an increase in new car prices will be to turn over the fleet of cars less often. If a new car goes from costing $20K to costing $21K, I might buy a new car every 5.25 years instead of every 5 years to keep the overall cost of ownership at $4K/year.
That may not sound like very much, but that adds up over time to millions of older cars on the roads. After all, not everyone is buying new cars in the first place. The 5-year-old new car becomes someone else's used car. Eventually, no one in the US wants it and it gets shipped to somewhere else like Mexico, where many people are quite happy to buy our old "junkers." The more new cars that we build and buy every year, the younger our car fleet is on average.
Think about it from a pollution point of view. Even at the same number of miles per gallon, a car from the 70s or even 80s is substantially dirtier than most new cars today. If you want to reduce smog, you cannot ignore the contribution of those old cars (which are "grandfathered in" and could never pass today's regulations on new cars). Any serious attempt to reduce air pollution today needs to get those old cars off the road. The problem will solve itself given enough time (eventually those cars will break down and be replaced), but in the meantime, those cars will continue pumping out pollutants.
(Any economist will tell you that the optimal solution to the problem I've just described is to slap a pollution tax on vehicles according to their emissions. You are free to keep driving your dirty old car, but we'll charge you for it.)
Think of the average age of the car fleet as the amount of time it takes from when a new car innovation is introduced (today) until the average driver has that innovation (today + average age of fleet). If you want 80%, 90%, or 99% of drivers to have that innovation, you will have to wait much longer than the average fleet age.
I understand the effect
But what I'm saying is, even though a regulation may cause an increase in price that delays new car purchases and causes the fleet to be older, that unless that cost effect is very pronounced, the penetration of the safety feature into the nationwide fleet will still be much faster with the regulation than without, and the "regulation" effect will trump the "cost" effect in significance. I'd like to see you make an argument that the increased cost due to mandatory seatbelts or airbags has actually delayed the penetration of these features in the national fleet longer than if they were not mandated, because there's no way that's the case.
I'm sure that auto manufacturers like that solution too.. sell substandard vehicles, then work with government to institute taxes on owners so that they are incentivized to buy new ones. Later, rinse, repeat. As a citizen, not an economist, I prefer that the government mandate that the vehicles coming off the assembly line be cleaner.
The pollution tax would be very regressive, by the way. And if the poor people driving the old, dirty cars can't afford a new car, paying that extra tax will be money out of their pocket that they can't spend on a new car, delaying their adoption of a cleaner car.
They institued a one-time $300 charge in California several years ago for people registering vehicles in California that didn't have the California emissions, even if the car passed the smog test. It was ruled unconstitutional later, and I got my $300 back with interest :-)
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
When the rubber meets the road
If I understand LZ correctly, the pollution tax is considered more efficient (ultimately meaning cheaper and more effective) than skymutt's propostion of making the cars cleaner in the first place.
But what LZ is not factoring into his cost equations are the enforcement costs.
Who is going to make sure that (1) the pollution tax is actually charged, (2) it is collected and remitted and accounted, and (3) violators are apprehended and prosecuted?
Today, what poor people really do, is they just don't pay for what they cannot afford. The law mandates drivers licenses -- well, they cannot afford to pay for one or to provide the identification needed to obtain one (e.g. the illegal population), so they do not get them. The law mandates liability insurance -- well, they cannot afford that either so they don't buy it. The law mandates annual vehicle inspections which require proof of insurance -- well, they know the local guy who provides the inspection sticker without that proof, or who provides fake stickers that work well enough. If they get caught, which is not often, they spend their week in jail and then resume their old habits. They still own cars and drive. Which city wants to devote their overstretched police force to enforcing these laws?
Why pass laws we are unwilling to fund enforcement for, out of some idealistic desire to maximize market actions which do not take into account the cost of enforcement in the first place? It just encourages scofflaws and makes a mockery of our legal system.
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
Re; The FDA
One word: thalidomide.
qui tacet consentire
You beat me to it
That was the exact word I was thinking of.
Though I expect the counter argument is that the horrible birth defects simply have a cost associated with them that should simply be calculated and applied in the form of a law suit (limited by tort reform of course...) this will 'naturally' lead to the 'correct' level of safety as drug companies will do the correct level of research to avoid the cost of such penalties, but not too much such research.
I disagree of course but I don't want to have a debate with myself so I think I'll stop there.
Complete non sequitur
The problem with thalidomide was safety, not efficacy. Peltzman's objection is to the efficacy requirement.
(Oddly enough, thalidomide turns out to be a useful drug -- just for different purposes.)
Efficacy vs Safety
So you are suggesting that we be required to test for safety but not efficacy?
How do you do so without running afoul of fraud? After all, if people are allowed to claim that such and such cures cancer (no need for chemo!) but well... maybe it doesn't, how are the non pharmacologically knowledgable to choose their medication?
There are programs by which promising drugs can be released early in the testing process to those who it might help.
Yes
Yes, that's what Peltzman is suggesting (and I would agree with) -- go back to the pre-1962 standard that the FDA is required to test drugs for safety, but *not* for efficacy.
The same way people decide whether every other type of product we buy is effective: we research them before we buy them. We know that advertising is just that, advertising, and seek out alternative sources of information before buying.
Peltzman claims that his research found that this wasn't a serious problem in the pre-1962 era -- he claims that market forces rapidly weeded out ineffective drugs. He believes that the law was attempting to solve a problem that didn't exist in the first place.
Most drugs have harmful side effects
Without efficacy, most modern drugs are quite bad for you. What dosage provides effectiveness while minimizing liver damage? Well, we don't know,and I don't see market forces determining what that proper dosage is without such tests that include efficacy as well.
Now, I'm all for providing early access for seriously ill people who can provide informed consent (just as I'm for removing certain drugs from the prescription list at all (Plan B etc)
Not sure pre-1962 pharmacology compares with the modern medicines on this issue. Not saying it is completely different, but there are a LOT of differences.
This is why
I find it very difficult to take you seriously on issues, Zorgon.
This followed you pointing to Peltzman's assertion that more could have been saved had the drug arrived to market sooner. Aside from the faulty assertion that you can quantify "what would have happened if...", there is the logical fallacy that it changes in any way when you do not test for efficacy. In other words, if it isn't efficacious, then the people who take it will still die. This aside from the snake oil salesmen who might be tempted to flock to the FDA and have their absolutely useless concoction declared safe for human consumption. How many suckers do you think they could get to buy it before anyone realized that it didn't do anything?
While you super capitalists whine about the burden of regulations ( and, yes, some of them are stupid as hell), you fail to make the case for the utopia that existed prior to the regulation. Let's hear some of that before you start peddling policies specifically designed to help the industrialist at the expense of the poor, uneducated and gullible? Or is that where you Libertarianism kicks in and just writes those people off?
Re: The Endangered Species Act
This effect happened in the South with the listing of the red-cockaded woodpecker.
The RCW nests in older pines. Some landowners, afraid that the government would prevent them from harvesting their timber because someone might find an RCW on it, would cut their pines before they got old enough to become good RCW habitat. Or, they discovered an RCW themselves and cut it all down before the government found out.
The solution was not to eliminate the ESA, but the creation of the Safe Harbor program.
qui tacet consentire
For once
I can say that I mostly agree with this.
Over-regulating everything under the sun can have a backlash.
Yet, we see what happened with Menu-Foods, the Pet Food recall, and imported wheat from China.
So how do you cope with that.
The dangerous substance was a type of rat poison, presumably to prevent rats from eating the stored grain or wheat used in the pet food. The rat poison was a substance banned (or regulated) here in the US. It causes renal failure and potentially second generation birth defects. So the US regulation was a good thing, actually protecting the consumer AND the businesses.
Globalization skirts the poison regulation, assuming larger profit margins. But in the end, the cost and the harm caused, will it be worth it?
So while I think many regulations are utterly stupid and give regulations a generally bad rap, some regulations actually protect business and the consumer, as in the Pet Food case.
Is it time to start thinking of measuring costs, benefits and regulations in different way. Taking into account the points in your post, the backlash effect, or the potential future harm and the variants due to globalization.
It is the economy, stupid.
Frankly, I believe that a certain amount of regulation is needed
A) The fact that cars are being made much better and safer nowadays is due to the fact that they are often regulated. Requiring auto manufacturers to install airbags in the cars, as well as laws requiring buckling of safety belts are both good, in that they do save lives. I've heard/read about many people whose lives have been saved by airbags and seatbelts: In accidents, they've either been able to walk away unscathes, or they've managed to escape with a broken leg or arm, or whatever.
I also think that raising the license age to 17 1/2 is probably very sensible and would cut down on the fatalities, because at least 1/4 to 1/2 of fatalities occur among teens under seventeen. There's sort of an ironic hypocrasy, I think, in allowing a 16-yar-old kid to obtain a license to drive a car: They're not old enough to vote or enter the military, but they're considered old enough to handle a potentially lethal weapon such as a car. Why not raise the age to 17 and a half? In most, if not all of the European countries, the driving age is 18, and there's hardly any difference between 17 1/2 and 18 yrs of age, imo.
Regulation is also necessary to keep insurance rates from going too high, and regulation of the food and drug industries is necessary in order to keep our foods and prescription drugs safe( or relatively safe, imo) Environmental protection regulations, too, are necessary, and it's disgraceful that G. W. Bush has gutted 30 some odd years worth of environmental protection and reform laws, and advocates that corporations get away with as much polluting of our air and water as they please.