Monday Open Thread

Happy Monday everyone! If any other FPers have news to update this thread with, feel free. Interesting story from Tenet's book - on how dangerous Al Qaeda really was/is. Tenet book details chilling plots to kill Gore, acquire nuclear weapons with an especially 24 type assertion:

In one especially chilling assertion, Tenet reveals that several intelligence sources were indicating in fall 2001 that a small nuclear weapon may have been smuggled into the United States.

Of course some on the Left will continue saying that Al Qaeda is not a real threat to US. This is an Open thread.

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Some on the Left

have always said al_Queda was and is the real threat.

Some say that diverting our military to Iraq was the biggest foreign policy mistake in the History of the United States.

There was no Iraq/al_Queda connection.

Some on the right have not been able to get a grip on this reality, nor the reality that our national security interests have been disasterously served by this President and his arrogance and incompetance.

Some on the left say that the biggest danger to our national security interests are those on the right that are blind to this reality.

…………

I'd like to know

who the "some" on the left are.

Of course some on the Left will continue saying that Al Qaeda is not a real threat to US.

Such as? Name some names, Ender. Who says this?

I'll say in advance that anyone who says al Qaeda is not a threat to the United States is a few fries short of a Happy Meal.

qui tacet consentire

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hahaha

I see you've been reading Redstate and stealing their expressions :)

I don't have the names but it is a fairly common theme on the Left.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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bullshit!

It is a common theme of the right to pretend like the left doesn't care.

No sale!

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it's hard to argue that the Left

cares when during your Dem debate there was a question to please raise your hand if you think we are in a Global War on Terrorism and half the people did not raise their hands including Edwards. That is embarrassing.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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It is hard to argue that the Right

has any credibility whatsoever when they have put our national security at risk.

All for the sake of following an authoritarin leader who cares more about profits than he cares about human suffering.

Sorry you are full of shit on that one...... all the way around.

You don't get to blindly follow the rights talking points as if it was some blueprint from God, that has brought this country its knees in Iraq, and then blame the left for every mistake the right has made.

Sorry that's not how it works.

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GWOT is a poisoned frame

The torture, the secret prisons, the frontal assault on Habeas Corpus, the failure to crush al Qaeda in Afghanistan, the failure to capture/kill OBL, the ill-advised War in Iraq... yes we need to vigorously fight terrorism around the world, but the Bush Admin has made so many horrible blunders in that effort that we just need to start with a clean slate. That means dumping the "Global War on Terror" frame. The ones who didn't raise their hands were correct not to do so.

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Because they got it right?

there was a question to please raise your hand if you think we are in a Global War on Terrorism and half the people did not raise their hands including Edwards. That is embarrassing.

War is a state of hostility between two or more states. Terrorism is not a state. Drugs are not a state. Poverty is not a state.

There is no War on Terrorism/Poverty/Drugs/etc.

Never was, never will be because such a thing is impossible. You might as well talk of boxing hatred, or putting depression in an armlock, or of arresting incompetence (as opposed to incompetents).

As metaphorical language it may have something to recommend but as a literal description of reality it is false.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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I can see your points...

I could even agree with Gravel's larger point that terrorism has been going on since the dawn of time. It's interesting, but you'll have a lot of trouble trying to explain that concept to the American People, who are scared out of their wits that an attack is imminent at any moment. I do think we should be watchful that we try to control and reduce threats from the outside of the country.

I'm still waiting to see how Peace through Superior Firepower is working. We clearly have the Superior Fire Power, and have for years, but according to Those in Charge, we're still in constant war. Terrorism is just the flavor of the decade. I'm sure we were fighting "Terrorism" in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, but we were busy with wars on other "concepts."

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

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Mostly agreement

It's interesting, but you'll have a lot of trouble trying to explain that concept to the American People, who are scared out of their wits that an attack is imminent at any moment.

I don't doubt it. And as long as people insist on acting like sheep they're going to get sheared a lot.

I do think we should be watchful that we try to control and reduce threats from the outside of the country.

Oh, no doubt. There's much we can do to reduce terrorism. And many of those things are good ideas. Some of them are unethical. Some of them are just down right stupid.

Somehow we keep picking C over and over again. Sure, warmongering and in general oppressing the people of the middle east led directly to 9/11 last time, but this time it'll work.

Fo' shizzle.

I'm still waiting to see how Peace through Superior Firepower is working.

I think the verdict is in. Superior firepower drastically reduces conventional warfare while strongly promoting assymetrical warfare.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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*raises hand*

Such as? Name some names, Ender. Who says this?

I'll say unequivocably that Al Qaeda isn't much threat to the US. In fact I'd say their only threat is in how they can get us to over react and hurt ourselves. Which really isn't them being a threat to us so much as us being a threat to ourselves.

All this talk about AQ being an existential threat is laughably exaggerated. What harm can they really do this nation? 9/11 was by rights an enormous success for them, far bigger than anything they had ever done before. It was only possible due to our own incredibly lax attitude toward airline security as well as an emergency response paralyzed by incomprehension.

And the result? 3,000 dead.

We lose 40,000 every year on the highways because we can't be bothered to change the speed limits and or use public transportation.

9/11 took years for them to plan and pull off and the physical effect was miniscule. The psychological effect on the other hand can't be overstated. But again, that's us being a threat to ourselves.

AQ doesn't have much in the way of technical know how. Their chemical weapons manuals are laughably bad. They had a hard time training a hand full of pilots to a level of competency where they could crash a plane.

There's no way they are going to be able to build a nuclear weapon. So the onely way they get one is by either having it given to them or stealing it. The answer to that is to form strong worldwide alliances and to support strong nuclear controls (neither of which have we been doing).

AQ's most likely source for a nuclear weapon is Pakistan. Let's say for argument's sake that they manage to get a nuke from the Pakistani ISI. Let's further say that they manage to successfully handle it so as not to destroy it or accidentally detonate it early. Let's further say that they manage to sneak the weapon into the US. And finally let's say they correctly set up the weapon and detonate it in a major metropolitan area.

The largest nuclear device that Pakistan tested they claim was 36 kilotons. Independent observers put it at about a quarter of that. Most of Pakistan's tests have been 12 kilotons, but while we're giving AQ every possibly hypothetical break let's give them the biggest bomb too.

So 36 kilotons is about the size of Fat Man and Little Boy combined. Together those two bombs killed about 120,000 immediately and somewhere around another 100,000 from radiation later. Even if we figure in a factor of 2 for increased urban density someplace like NY the death toll would be about 500,000.

Horrific? Certainly. A threat to our very existence? Not even remotely. We have about that many babies every month. The economic and political ramifications would be far greater than the actual physical harm (as with 9/11).

There is simply no stretch of the imagination by which AQ can do anything more than nip at our heels. Are they a threat to you or me? Quite possibly. A threat to the USA? No. Absolutely no.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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there is a huge difference

between losing people to the natural accidents / homegrown crime / age / illnesses / etc and losing them in wars or terror acts.

The psychological effect is huge and the economic effect could be even worse. I am not worried that our country will fall apart, but a huge economic impact could throw us into recession.

Any self respecting country will want to defend itself from an attack that will highlight serious vulnerabilities to our enemies. Is it a threat to our very existence? Probably not, but it would relegate us to a pathetic and very threatened existence and while you might not care, an overwhelming majority of Americans do not want to live like that.

Also when the head of the CIA thinks that Al Qaeda is a very serious threat to US, you better believe that I will agree with him well before I agree with your assessment of the threat.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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there is a huge

there is a huge difference
between losing people to the natural accidents / homegrown crime / age / illnesses / etc and losing them in wars or terror acts.

There certainly are psychological differences as you say, but in either case the person is still dead. If losing 40,000 americans to cars every year isn't an existential threat (and it isn't) then losing 3,000 americans once every couple decades certainly isn't.

I am not worried that our country will fall apart, but a huge economic impact could throw us into recession.

Oh, so when you say Al Qaeda is a threat you don't mean as in "Soviet Union with thousands of nuclear weapons aimed at us." You mean a threat more like "housing bubble may collapse and cause me to eat ramen for a month."

It occurs to me that they might be less of a threat to our economy if we hadn't just poured hundreds of billions of dollars into Iraq.

Any self respecting country will want to defend itself from an attack that will highlight serious vulnerabilities to our enemies.

Sure, but what you don't get is the actual nature of the attack- the nature of the vulnerability. Al Qaeda goaded us into actions that have caused immense harm to our military, our prestige, and our historic alliances. that's the threat we should fear, not the deaths but our own blundering over reaction.

You want to prevent them from hurting us so bad? Learn the british "stiff upper lip."

Also when the head of the CIA thinks that Al Qaeda is a very serious threat to US, you better believe that I will agree with him well before I agree with your assessment of the threat.

The CIA exists mostly to create threats to our nation, not to defuse them. Their job is making sure America stays in business, and as someone once noted America's business is war. Remember the "Soviet Union with thousands of nuclear weapons aimed at us," I mentioned earlier? Turns out that was mostly puff, too. Their capabilities were dramatically over estimated to keep the cold war going. Because that allowed for the sinking of stupid amounts of money into the military-industrial complex.

So really you shouldn't just take the CIA's word about such things. They have a history of making up boogeymen.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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If you don't think...

...that a nuclear device exploded in New York City and causing 500,000 deaths and untold casualties would be a threat to the United States, you are beyond naive. Look at the reaction to 9/11-- the political and societal reaction is the whole point! Look at how that relatively small attack has caused everberations for years and damaged our society. People DO have extreme reactions to extreme circumstances... that is human nature, found everywhere, and to somehow parse that out of the total threat and dismiss it as "us being a threat to ourselves" and pretending that such a panic effect is not inevitable is ridiculous.

An attack on NYC like you describe would be a tremendous threat to the existence of the United States as we know it-- it would take great leadership to prevent degeneration into total economic collapse and world war if such an event occurred. We'd probably be facing a cascading series of threats to our existence as a nation.

We lose 40,000 every year on the highways because we can't be bothered to change the speed limits and or use public transportation.

One of the silliest comparisons you've ever made. Death by traffic accident doesn't cause mass panic, threaten economic collapse, cause massive unexpected property damage including damage to vital infrastructure, displace hundreds of thousands from their homes, cause hundreds of thousands of injuries that massively overwhelm hospitals, destroy vital institutions like the stock markets, create conditions for secondary crises like disease and environmental contamination, and so on.

Besides (and your comparison is so silly that this is beside the point, but...), no matter what mode of transport you use, there is some risk. Apparently, Americans feel the convenience of using car transport is worth additional risk, and are also willing to tolerate the additional risk of higher speed limits to get where they are going faster and squeeze a little bit more out of life. 622 people died while riding a bike in 2003 ... I'm willing to bet that makes riding a bike more dangerous per mile than car travel, so let's quit riding those bikes to work and drive your cars everyone!

As far as combatting the threat, you are correct that the best way to combat the problem is to build strong allies and work with them to secure all the nuclear materialin the world. But that will not be a trivial achievement, and until it is accomplished, an AQ nuclear attack on a major US city is a very real threat.

 

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Actually looking at shipping containers would be a start.

currently less than 5% of the shipping containers that enter the US are inspected or checked for radiation.

Bush43 has refused to increase funds needed to do just that. What are we to think by these contradictory statements & actions?

We are to think that the headline and the fear is more valuable to this administration, than actually doing anything about the problem.

Another in the increasingly long list of reasons why some of us don't trust this administration any longer.

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Exactly

Rather than do the hard work to improve security and lessen the threat of terrorist attack with common sense, behind the scenes measures like strengthening our alliances with countries who will help us in pursuing terrorists, securing nuclear material around the world, ramping up cargo inspections, and getting immigration reform passed, the current regime is intent on playing up fear for political purposes-- and apparently, keeping fear at a high level by doing next to nothing in these areas, and rather instituting useless political devices like the color-coded terrorist threat meter. Are we at yellow or orange by the way? I want to know how scared I should be today...

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In addition to all the rational security

steps you list, one further step that I can see happening (hopefully before the next attack) is identifying individuals who are radical islamists living in the USA and then legally deporting them. The problem is playing itself out in a major way in England where the security forces have identified certified absolute radical islamists who want to destroy the country, support UBL, want sharia law now in the uK, however England can't seem to find a legally way to deport them.

There is no reason we have to take into our western democracies individuals who are committed to killing or converting us in the hope that somehow thru their exposure to our political and education system they will change their ways. Surveillance can only go so far.

name the enemy, win the war

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I saw the 60 Minutes piece awhile back...

..about some of those radical UK clerics, and I agree that it is not acceptable to allow people to openly attempt to incite violent acts against society and government. These people, if citizens, should be jailed; if non-citizens, deported, and if that's not possible, jailed also. That goes for radical Islamists or anyone else. I'm not sure if there are such clerics in the US that you could identify-- I'm not aware of anyone in particular that I feel needs to be detained. And I want to clarify that fundamentalist Islamists should not be targeted on those grounds alone-- only UBL supporters or others who promote violence and advocate attacks. It would have to be a very high bar to protect people's freedom of religion.

Problem is, the one group plotting to attack is probably doing everything they can to avoid attention, so as a means of protecting us from domestic terrorist attack, it's unlikely that it would be too effective, and the threat of prosecution will drive terrorist radicals underground. Still, I think that you can't tolerate out and out treason, which I think some (well, at least one) of those UK clerics are guilty of.

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If you read websites like

littlegreenfootballs, jihadwatch.org, frontpagemag.com, to name a few, there is a constant flow of information not just about the worldwide activities of the islamists. But also about the domestic islamists. Of course many radical islamists are in the US now. I am way past the point of surveillance for Islamofacists. I differentiate between moderate muslims and the radicals (who often intimidate the moderates).

name the enemy, win the war

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yeah you are exactly right

there is too much stuff to keep track of on the domestic front already. I hope FBI is on top of it and keeps the people who need to be surveilled under a sharp eye.

There are plenty of domestic islamists who no doubt are spreading hate and inciting violence against the country they despise. Among them are some of the most hateful and ungrateful, not to mention dangerous, immigrants in the history of our country.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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...or, more precisely...

...there's too much info on the domestic front, and its quality is too low to be useful. Perish the thought if the FBI is using Little Green Footballs for intelligence...

Like I said, it should be a high bar. You'd have to show me an example of what you and sandbox are talking about for me to judge if I think the behavior is treasonous or not.

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"Radical" is in the eye of the beholder

and it's not the criteria I would judge by. "Radical" is a subjective term, and is not inherently wrong. If an Islamist commands his congregation to wear beards, not speak with non-muslims, and give all their worldly possessions to the mosque-- that's radical, and that brand of religion is not my cup of tea and it may not be yours; but it's not what I'm looking for, which is spefically inciting or advocating violence against society or government. I don't want a large-scale purge, and I don't want Muslims to feel that they must be "moderate" in this country.

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I define Radical Islam as

those individuals or organizations who advocate, support, plan or execute jihad attacks against the United States and its foreign allies and interests or those who support the overthrow of the Constitutional government of the United States and in its place the establishment of Sharia law.

name the enemy, win the war

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As long as you're defining "support"...

...as material support, or some other kind of substantial support, and not merely a couple of drunken blog posts, I agree.

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If you read websites like littlegreenfootballs

You are already reading the words of radicals in America. These were, after all people rooting for an attack against America, our allies, and our ex-presidents... as long as it was only Democrats who were killed.

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well said

my conservative brother.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Threats

If you don't think...
...that a nuclear device exploded in New York City and causing 500,000 deaths and untold casualties would be a threat to the United States, you are beyond naive. Look at the reaction to 9/11-- the political and societal reaction is the whole point!

But as I tried to make clear- that political and societal reaction has nothing to do with Al Qaeda being a threat to us, that is entirely us being a threat to us.

It wouldn't have to be Al Qaeda. Anyone or anything that caused us a bloody nose would get the same hysteria. For reference see Hurricane Katrina.

and to somehow parse that out of the total threat and dismiss it as "us being a threat to ourselves" and pretending that such a panic effect is not inevitable is ridiculous.

The inevitability of it isn't the point. It is the source of the damage that is the point. Al Qaeda cannot cause a panic. We choose to panic or we choose not to.

A panicked nation is certainly a scary thing, and it can cause a lot of damage to itself and others, especially when it has a military budget that makes Ming the Merciless look flaccid. And yet the panic is entirely within our control.

Entirely.

Not admiting that is a cop out. It's denying the personal responsibility each of us has. It's excusing riot as a right.

An attack on NYC like you describe would be a tremendous threat to the existence of the United States as we know it-- it would take great leadership to prevent degeneration into total economic collapse and world war if such an event occurred.

No. Sorry but no. It would take something far more profound to actually derail the huge inertia of this nation. That kind of attack on washington wiping out all three branches of federal government might do it. We've taken far greater hits in the past with no problem.

We suffered as many casualties in WW2 and the civil war when we had a far smaller population to absorb the blow. We've had far worse economic straights such as during the Great Depression. The dow jones industrial average lost close to 90% of it's value before it was over, and yet the country plugged on.

Remember we are talking at best about a small nuclear device. And more likely a tiny one. 500,000 was our upper limit on deaths. Realistically we'd be talking half that or less. Actually realistically it won't happen at allbecause AQ doesn't have the know how.

But even if it did happen our country has in fact gone through worse and survived. Yes there'll be a big hit to the economy. That's not an existential threat.

I think you are mistakenly thinking of this in terms of AQ having a weapon on par with our ICBMs. It's not. Those weapons are in the megaton range. Look at this map:

The damage is pretty localized to an area just a couple miles in diameter. Sure it'll cause havok to a city, even a big city. But the nation? It's a flea bite.

One of the silliest comparisons you've ever made. Death by traffic accident doesn't cause mass panic, threaten economic collapse, cause massive unexpected property damage including damage to vital infrastructure, displace hundreds of thousands from their homes, cause hundreds of thousands of injuries that massively overwhelm hospitals, destroy vital institutions like the stock markets, create conditions for secondary crises like disease and environmental contamination, and so on.

Which only speaks to our strange fixation on small problems over large ones. Far more people will be killed, far more damage done to the country by Honda than by Al Qaeda. And yet we don't panic about the dealership down the street.

Again you can't reclassify the damage done in a panic as somehow part of the Al Qaeda threat. It isn't. It's a separate thing unto itself.

Apparently, Americans feel the convenience of using car transport is worth additional risk

Mostly americans never stop to think about it.

622 people died while riding a bike in 2003... I'm willing to bet that makes riding a bike more dangerous per mile than car travel, so let's quit riding those bikes to work and drive your cars everyone!

What do you want to bet 99.5+% of those deaths were caused by a car hitting the bicyclist? That kind of torpedos your argument.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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But as I tried to make

But as I tried to make clear- that political and societal reaction has nothing to do with Al Qaeda being a threat to us, that is entirely us being a threat to us.

Bullsh*t. If someone sets fire to a theater, and I get trampled to death on the way to the exit, who is responsible-- the arsonist who set the fire, or the people who panicked? If you need help answering that question, here's a hint: who is legally responsible for my death-- the arsonist, or the panicked mob?

It wouldn't have to be Al Qaeda. Anyone or anything that caused us a bloody nose would get the same hysteria. For reference see Hurricane Katrina.

If you think Katrina bears any relation to the effect of a nuclear device being detonated in New York City-- a "bloody nose"-- you are tragically mistaken. A nuclear device detonated in New York City would be more equivalent to a gunshot to our stomach-- your bullseye notwithstanding. Manhattan is only 2.3 miles wide at its widest point, and contains 1.6 million residents, with many more people on the island during the workday. Your bullseye would easily cover all of lower Manhattan.

We suffered as many casualties in WW2 and the civil war when we had a far smaller population to absorb the blow. We've had far worse economic straights such as during the Great Depression. The dow jones industrial average lost close to 90% of it's value before it was over, and yet the country plugged on.

Not comparable... The loss of life in WW2 occurred offshore, and were expected-- no sudden panic effect. The Depression set in over a period of months and years and occurred in a time of relative innocence in the country-- and we were blessed with a terrific president during that time. And again-- not a sudden, unexpected, shocking event with the residual panic effects. Even so-- the Depression could have turned out far differently if the leadership wasn't up to the task...

The inevitability of it isn't the point. It is the source of the damage that is the point. Al Qaeda cannot cause a panic. We choose to panic or we choose not to.

A panicked nation is certainly a scary thing, and it can cause a lot of damage to itself and others, especially when it has a military budget that makes Ming the Merciless look flaccid. And yet the panic is entirely within our control.

Entirely.

Not admiting that is a cop out. It's denying the personal responsibility each of us has. It's excusing riot as a right.

More bullsh*t. When the arsonist sets fire to the theater, I can walk to the exit as coolly and calmly as I want to, but that "choice not to panic" doesn't amount to a hill of beans if everyone else panics and tramples me. I can't make choices for everybody else, so personal responsibility during a panic is sort of a moot point. Besides, I don't really know that I wouldn't panic myself if the lights went out in the theater, everybody started screaming, and I smelled the smoke and saw the flames... who knows how we would react under that kind of stress unless we'd been there.

Riots are something more than panic. You're conflating a reflex to flee with willful violence. But even there, if a direct hit on a major city knocks out civil authorit, then criminals will have free reign. Riots will happen-- it is inevitable, not preventable by personal responisibility, and it follows directly from the terrorist attack. So the terrorists would be jointly responsible for the riots, along with the rioters themselves.

Far more people will be killed, far more damage done to the country by Honda than by Al Qaeda. And yet we don't panic about the dealership down the street.

A comparison which ignores the enormous benefits and enjoyments that come as a result of personal transportation. Cars are inseparable from modern life in America. Last time I checked, there weren't too many benefits to balance out the risks of a terrorist attack.

What do you want to bet 99.5+% of those deaths were caused by a car hitting the bicyclist? That kind of torpedos your argument.

Not really, since I said that the whole idea of comparing the effect of vehicle accident deaths to a nuclear attack in NYC was ridiculous.

 

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different things

Bullsh*t. If someone sets fire to a theater, and I get trampled to death on the way to the exit, who is responsible-- the arsonist who set the fire, or the people who panicked?

That's not at all the same. What would be the same is if there was one theater that burned down and as a result people in a theater hundreds of miles away stampeded. In that case the theater goers are absolutely to blame. There was no immediate threat to them but they panicked anyway.

If you think Katrina bears any relation to the effect of a nuclear device being detonated in New York City-- a "bloody nose"-- you are tragically mistaken. A nuclear device detonated in New York City would be more equivalent to a gunshot to our stomach-- your bullseye notwithstanding. Manhattan is only 2.3 miles wide at its widest point, and contains 1.6 million residents, with many more people on the island during the workday. Your bullseye would easily cover all of lower Manhattan.

But not everyone in the area would die. Not even close. Again you are vastly over estimating the damage done.

Manhattan is 2 miles wide and 12 miles long. That means that roughly half the island would be in the "light" damage zone or worse. 1/3rd would be in "moderate" damage or worse. 20% would be in the "severe" damage or worse. As you said some 1.6 million people work there. Which makes my estimate of 500,000 casualties sound too high frankly. Half the people wouldn't be in the area of effect at all. Another sixth would be in the light damage zone. Even in the moderate damage zone there is going to be less than total fatality.

Even the bullseye diagram was overstating the matter since that was the damage done by Fat man detonated at 1800 feet. The hypothetical AQ bomb would almost certainly be detonated at ground level (or close enough as to make no difference). Airburst attacks cover a wider area of effect.

It would be horrific but it would in no way endanger our country.

Not comparable... The loss of life in WW2 occurred offshore, and were expected-- no sudden panic effect. The Depression set in over a period of months and years and occurred in a time of relative innocence in the country-- and we were blessed with a terrific president during that time. And again-- not a sudden, unexpected, shocking event with the residual panic effects.

Again you are misattributing the panic effect.

More bullsh*t. When the arsonist sets fire to the theater, I can walk to the exit as coolly and calmly as I want to, but that "choice not to panic" doesn't amount to a hill of beans if everyone else panics and tramples me.

And again this analogy is flawed because the people we are talking about panicking are not the ones endangered, but rather those who casually witness other's who were endangered.

Our country did not panic due to 9/11 survivors. They panicked due to the response of CNN viewers. People who were entirely safe in their homes and yet chose to freak the *&*% out.

A comparison which ignores the enormous benefits and enjoyments that come as a result of personal transportation. Cars are inseparable from modern life in America. Last time I checked, there weren't too many benefits to balance out the risks of a terrorist attack.

*shrug*
If you had the power to stop 13x 9/11 every year you wouldn't because taking the bus is a drag?

See what I mean about people's screwed up priorities?

Not really, since I said that the whole idea of comparing the effect of vehicle accident deaths to a nuclear attack in NYC was ridiculous.

No it still torpedos your argument, it just isn't an argument you care very much about. Which is fine, but try to recognize the hypocrisy in screaming about an incredibly unlikely hypothetical scenario that even if it were to occur would kill far less americans than actually die currently every ten years.

Like I said we choose to panic or not to.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Different kinds of panics

That's not at all the same. What would be the same is if there was one theater that burned down and as a result people in a theater hundreds of miles away stampeded. In that case the theater goers are absolutely to blame. There was no immediate threat to them but they panicked anyway.

Different kinds of panics can can be experienced remote from the attack zone-- most notably economic panics. A run on banks as a result of a nuclear attack on NYC would result in a run on banks in California, Kansas, etc.. Stock market panic selloffs wouldn't be confined to the location of the attack. Spiking gasoline prices will cause a run on gas. And again-- I can be the coolest, most rational person in the world-- but if I see my life savings in jeopardy, or if I see that gas will be gone unless I get some... I may have to join the herd. You can't maintain that I have some control over the panic.

 

But not everyone in the area would die. Not even close. Again you are vastly over estimating the damage done.

Manhattan is 2 miles wide and 12 miles long. That means that roughly half the island would be in the "light" damage zone or worse. 1/3rd would be in "moderate" damage or worse. 20% would be in the "severe" damage or worse. As you said some 1.6 million people work there. Which makes my estimate of 500,000 casualties sound too high frankly. Half the people wouldn't be in the area of effect at all. Another sixth would be in the light damage zone. Even in the moderate damage zone there is going to be less than total fatality.

Even the bullseye diagram was overstating the matter since that was the damage done by Fat man detonated at 1800 feet. The hypothetical AQ bomb would almost certainly be detonated at ground level (or close enough as to make no difference). Airburst attacks cover a wider area of effect.

It would be horrific but it would in no way endanger our country.

700,000 people commute into Midtown Manhattan to work alone-- that doesn't include people who live there, nor does it include visitors.

And maybe they detonate the device on the roof of a building? or on an airplane?

And again this analogy is flawed because the people we are talking about panicking are not the ones endangered, but rather those who casually witness other's who were endangered.

Oh, no sir... people who panic on those types of stampedes get trampled all the time. Panicking doesn't give you immunity from getting trampled. It's just that not panicking doesn't help your cause too much, if you get caught in the middle of it.

If you had the power to stop 13x 9/11 every year you wouldn't because taking the bus is a drag?

See what I mean about people's screwed up priorities?

Not really... over half of all vehicular fatalities are as a result of alcohol or drug intoxication. Cars aren't at fault there. Then, there's all the accidents caused by recklessness, or not using a seat belt, or too much speed. Then there's a fact that I'm a good, defensive driver, good eyesight and hearing, good reflexes, I don't drink & drive and I've never had an at-fault accident, and have never had any kind of accident at all besides a fender-bender. Then you add in the fact that buses have accidents too, even fatal ones... and THEN you add in the fact that I enjoy driving and buses don't go half the places that I want to go-- and I think my priorities are pretty sane.

 

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sanity.

Different kinds of panics can can be experienced remote from the attack zone-- most notably economic panics. A run on banks as a result of a nuclear attack on NYC would result in a run on banks in California, Kansas, etc.. Stock market panic selloffs wouldn't be confined to the location of the attack. Spiking gasoline prices will cause a run on gas. And again-- I can be the coolest, most rational person in the world-- but if I see my life savings in jeopardy, or if I see that gas will be gone unless I get some... I may have to join the herd. You can't maintain that I have some control over the panic.

Of course you have control over whether you personally panic. Everyone in the mob makes that choice for themselves. Saying you may "have to join the herd" is, as I said, a cop out. No one can force you to panic.

And again this is besides the point. You can hardly qualify the idiotic behavior of bank customers as part of Al Qaeda's threat. AQ is responsible for what they do, not for how people react. They are responsible for the murder of some 3000 people in NY and Washington and Pennsylvania. They are not responsible for our murder of tens if not hundreds of thousands in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Everybody has to take responsibility for their own actions ultimately.

If we want to add the avergae american's propensity to stampede one another then every nation and group on earth is a dire threat indeed. The local boy scout troop is an existential threat if we choose to conflate the ability to cause harm with the possible resultant over reaction.

And maybe they detonate the device on the roof of a building? or on an airplane?

Just how many breaks are we planning to give the plotters in this scenario? There's a point where cautious cynicism turns into outright paranoia.

Oh, no sir... people who panic on those types of stampedes get trampled all the time. Panicking doesn't give you immunity from getting trampled. It's just that not panicking doesn't help your cause too much, if you get caught in the middle of it.

You're not getting my point.

The people in the WTC when it was hit by the planes had every reason to panic. They were in fact in a life or death situation. their panic was entirely understandable.

What I'm talking about is the rest of the country who went absolutely apeshit despite having no actual threat to them. These are the people who swallowed without concern the patriot act. The people who acctepted uncritically that we should invade afghanistan. The people who insisted on showing and talking and debating and reminding everyone everywhere about the incident, about how bad it scared them, and how much it hurt us.

Those people panicked for no good reason, did exactly the opposite of what they should have done, and hurt the country. Badly.

The guys who jumped from the burning towers only hurt themselves.

When talking about the "threat" of a panic we don't mean the people actually in the danger zone. While they will panic they are frankly far too small a number to matter, yes even in manhattan on a work day. the panicky beasts that matter are the 298,000,000 other americans.

Not really... over half of all vehicular fatalities are as a result of alcohol or drug intoxication. Cars aren't at fault there.

How many people have died from "walking while intoxicated"?

The cars may not be at "fault," since they are inanimate objects, but they certainly make things much more dangerous when somebody gets wasted, has a bad day, has a heart attack, just got fired, found out their spouse was cheating...

Then, there's all the accidents caused by recklessness, or not using a seat belt, or too much speed. Then there's a fact that I'm a good, defensive driver, good eyesight and hearing, good reflexes, I don't drink & drive and I've never had an at-fault accident, and have never had any kind of accident at all besides a fender-bender. Then you add in the fact that buses have accidents too, even fatal ones... and THEN you add in the fact that I enjoy driving and buses don't go half the places that I want to go-- and I think my priorities are pretty sane.

Forty thousand people will die this year for your priorities. 40,000. This year.

In return you get to go places a little faster.

I'm not seeing the sanity myself. Remember it's not just you on the road. But everyone else too. And however good a driver you may be a lot of them are terrible at it. But that doesn't matter, they'll be given a license with only the most prefunctory of exam and sent out on the road with 37,000 kg m/s of momentum to control (assuming they drive a relatively modest ford taurus).

Now granted there will certainly be some deaths with a more sane transportation scheme. Just not nearly as many. Your other concerns such as lack of bussing to the areas you want would be readily fixed when we stop pouring so much of our economy into cars. For that matter think of the available real estate.

It's no coincidence that NYC has the lowest per capita car use of the US. The land is far too valuable to waste on all the parking and additional roads needed to handle the huge population.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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I beg to differ somewhat here, Tlaloc:

"Our country did not panic due to 9/11 survivors. They panicked due to the response of CNN viewers. People who were entirely safe in their homes and yet chose to freak the *&*% out."

The country panicked in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on the WTC Towers because Dubya and his administration played to people's fears and panicked the population themselves.

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They would have panicked anyway

but, yes, there are many who cynically play upon that fear. And the republicans didn't have a monopoly on that.

how many dems voted against the Patriot act? 62 in house, 1 in the senate (Feingold who has earned some measure of my respect).

How many dems voted against the AUMF "against terrorists"? 1 in the house (Barbara Lee). None in the Senate.

How many dems voted against the AUMF for Iraq? 126, just 60% of all congressional democrats.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Will Bush help out Ahmadinejad?

It looks like Ahmadinejad is about as popular in Iran as Bush is in America. He desperately needs Bush to attack Iran.

A grand coalition of anti-government forces is planning a second Iranian revolution via the ballot box to deny President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad another term in office and break the grip of what they call the "militia state" on public life and personal freedom.

Encouraged by recent successes in local elections, opposition factions, democracy activists, and pro-reform clerics say they will bring together progressive parties loyal to former president Mohammad Khatami with so-called pragmatic conservatives led by Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The alliance aims to exploit the president's deepening unpopularity, borne of high unemployment, rising inflation and a looming crisis over petrol prices and possible rationing to win control of the Majlis in general elections which are due within 10 months.

...

In an unusual intervention, Grand Ayatollah Yusef Sa'anei, one of Iran's most respected Islamic scholars, has attacked Mr Ahmadinejad's government for failing to tackle social ills such as youth unemployment, drug addiction, and gender inequality.

qui tacet consentire

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Did you see the protests in Turkey

What are they protesting? Religous fundamentalists in government. Sound familiar.

The liberals in Turkey, Iran and the US are all pissed about too much religon being inserted into government.

Hmmm....

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It's a tough call.

I support people being able to follow their beliefs freely, including politicians. I expect politicians to not try to get me to abide by their religious beliefs on the basis of that religion however. Shared values like you shouldn't murder, steal or the like, fine, we can all agree on. Stuff like "You should adhere to my preachers views on this subject" is outta line.

The same thing can be said in Mexico right now wrt abortion. just a week ago (maybe 2 now) they passed a new law in Mexico giving women the right to end their pregnancy within the first 3 months of conception. The Catholic church has already said they will excommunicate any nurse or physician who helps a women in a clinic where an abortion may occur and will excommunicate any ledgislature who voted to OK abortion rights.

That is so far over the line I'd have to say at that point they stop being a religious group and are now a political group and should be taxed fully just like the rest of us.

So, I guess my take is how far the person in question goes trying to make the citizens abide by his religious beliefs.

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it's the ridiculous comparisons

of Islamists to our own government that drive anyone on the right nuts. There is nothing even close to similar between the two country's traditions and realities. Anytime you mention stuff like that I automatically switch off from reading anything beyond that sentence and you will never get any dialogue going.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I didn't say Islamists

I said religous fundamentalists.

You don't get to twist my words to suit your preconceived notions.

Stop lying about what I said.

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I know what you said

religious fundamentalists in Turkey are islamists, and religious fundamentalists in US are christians. Which is why I said islamists because that is what they are in Turkey. There can be no comparison between Islamic religious fundamentalists that engage in jihads around the world and ours that think gay marriage and abortion is wrong.

It's your comparison of the two that is so wrong.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I celebrate the protesters in Turkey

I celebrate the separation of church and state in the US.

Don't pretend like my original statement is something that it isn't.

I am allowed to be express concern about the latest trend by the Justice Dept. to install Christian Right Religous Ideologues into the US government without you making false comparisons that distort the meaning of my words.

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Yes, Happy Monday...now get back to work!!!

after reading all your internet sites first como no!

George tenants book....where to start.

I like Taylor Marsh's raking Condi over the coals on this. She has a short thread about it.

I really enjoyed the open letter sent to George Tenant (via his NY publisher) from ex-CIA/National Security folks who basically said "Dude! You OK'd intelligence you knew to be lies! You created cover for those who led us to war in Iraq under false assertions and facts. You knew exactly that's what you were doing! You are just as responsible for the 3300+ GI deaths in Iraq so far as the warmongers of choice in the Administration". It'd be funny if it wasn't so true.

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The more George talks

the more he looks like a fool.

If he wants to serve any kind of patriotic purpose to ease his guilt, he should emphasize how isolated this President is with his stupid rhetoric about war funding.

There is only one signature that we need to give money to the troops and that is the Presidents. If he doesn't sign it he is an idiot.

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Back from my baseball tour

Saw games in Cleveland, Detroit, and Toronto. I need to catch up on work and then find out what's going on in politics...

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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must be nice... :)

Keep on doing the hard work! ;)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Virginia Govenor restricts gun sales!!!!

well, that's the way the NRA will play it. But according to our MSM CNN friends(?), Virginia will no longer allow crazy people to buy guns.

So, this a warning.....dubya? Darth? Buy your guns in Delaware from now on.

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a little tribute to George Washington

I am not sure if I posted a link to this before.

Warning violent, bizzarre, and crude.

It's a very absurd Cartoon tribute to George Washington .

I found it kinda hilarious.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I posted a diary

about Jewishness and Jewish loyalty to Israel on dkos. Doesn't seem very appropriate here - I was just responding to something some dkos user asked.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/4/30/221032/407

getting ton of comments

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Good diary man...

I gave you some mojo, so that you can survive a troll-rate attack in the future, if worse comes to worst...

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lol

thank you :) I just saw that initial comment and wrote a long response to it... I hit submit but the comment failed because dkos was crashing temporarily. Since that comment failed I looked at it and thought that maybe if I expanded it a bit, it would make a decent diary.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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