Series of Articles on the Global Warming Deniers

In surfing around looking for Al Gore quotes I came across a series done by Canada's National Post on Global Warming Deniers.  I have not read most of these at this point but I though that posting some quick links here for anyone else that was interested might be helpful.  If you read any of these and have any comments that you would like to share on the material please feel free to add a comment below with the title of the article your are referencing.

National Post Series on Global Warming Deniers

Here is the current list of articles in the series:

EDIT #1:

Let me just say from the outset that I posted these because it seemed to be a nicely done series that was researched and written by a group that isn't, I expect anyway, viewed as being a completely right wing propaganda mouthpiece.  As I said above, I haven't yet read all of these articles so I am not holding them up as some definitive proof of anything but they probably do a reasonable job of highlighting the areas of controversy in this debate.

I intend to read each one and provide a summary thereof along with my impressions of the points being made.  If you have a quibble with the terminology used in the articles, please take it up with the publishers thereof.  I write non of these articles.

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First impressions

Interesting stuff. Unfortunately, you've caught me at a real busy time, so I don't have time right now to delve into all the links here. hopefully later in the week I can write more.

My initial reaction, upon reading the first paragraph of the first article, was that he is creating a false dichotomy here. His "two broad camps" are those who think the science is "settled" and those who think the science is "far from settled." That leaves out the vast middle ground of those who think the science is not necessary settled, but certainly compelling enough to act upon. The language used really makes the "non-denier" camp seem to be the extremists and alarmists, and sets a biased tone right from the get-go.

There is almost always going to be a degree of uncertainty to any scientific prediction, but in this case, IMHO, the consequences of not acting and being wrong are far more dire than the consequences of acting and being wrong.

Again, I hope to get deeper into this stuff later, but for now, here you have my initial reaction and an idea about where I am coming from.

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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A little skeptical

because of how the articles are presenting the information. This isn't a field I know a huge amount about, but I DID notice one glaring omission in one of the first links I clicked on, describing Dr. Christopher Landsea's withdrawal from the IPCC because of how they misrepresented his research.

The article implies that Landsea is a global warming denier (even lists his CV as "CV of a denier"). He isn't. In fact, he supports wholeheartedly the notion of human-influenced global warming, but he thinks that it won't have more than a minor effect on hurricane intensity/frequencey .

This debacle may have been good evidence that the debate (and the science) have become politicized, but it's fundamentally dishonest to call Dr. Landsea a global warming denier, which he most certainly is not. Quite the contrary, in fact. Instead, the article you linked to goes to great effort not to talk about Landsea's scientific opinion on global warming, and avoids entirely Landsea's discussion of why the science didn't justify the IPCC's conclusions. Why? Because the author would have had to acknowledge that Landsea agrees with climatologists about human-influenced global warming. "CV of a denier", indeed.

Now this is a story I luckily know, because I followed it when I happened. I hope you can understand that this strains my ability to read the ones I don't know with an open mind.

Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

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Interesting

I've come across a similar thing in the only one I've had a chance to look at in detail: the first one about Edward Wegman. He is a statistician who was called in by congress (Committee on Energy and Commerce) to lend his statistical expertise regarding the "hockey stick" graph - which is from the 1999 paper by Mann et al. He has some very good points to make regarding the necessity to involve more statisticians in climate science. However, I can't find a single statement by him that would qualify him as a "global warming denier." (I think he is smart enough to know that as a statistician, he has credibility to comment on statistical methods and the conclusions of individual papers, but not necessarily the debate as a whole.) His report does say that the faulty statistics used by Mann et al do undermine the conclusion that the 90's were the warmest decade of the millenium (although apparently, redoing the statistics using his suggestions results in a very similarly shaped "hockey stick" graph). A later NAS review partially agreed, basically concluding that the 90s were likely the warmest decade in the past 400 years, but the data is a bit too fuzzy to conclude the same about the past 1000 years.

There's a whole lot more to this debate. There are definitely valid criticisms here, GoRight. And I learned a bunch more about it all just by looking at this one issue. I'm glad you posted these, and I will try to read through them some more.

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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Global Warming Statistics

The primary point of Edward Wegman's involvement is that the IPCC was utilizing faulty statistics in their analysis in the case that he reviewed. We have no idea how pervasive this problem might actually be. This may have been the only example thereof, but I suspect that many of the statistical results being reported by the IPCC have not undergone a review similar to the one Wegman performed and thus there is some possibility of a similar issue therewith.

So, the bottom line is that at least in the case of the data that Edward Wegman reviewed, the IPCC was reporting faulty conclusions. As you point out, the revised results may be similar to those stated previously but they are clearly less "dramatic" in nature. Minor disclaimer: I have not personally verified your claim of the revision down to 400 years, but I accept your assertion on its face at this time

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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A few observations on your comment ...

(1) Dr. Christopher Landsea's decision to withdraw from the IPCC process IS a denial of AGW in that his conclusions is that AGW is not a significant contributor to the intensity of hurricanes in recent years, whereas the IPCC claims that it is.  So, for the area of research that he specializes in, he denies the results that they are reporting.  No more, no less.

(2) In the article that you link to, Quite the contrary, in fact. , Landsea doesn't seem to be supporting AGW at all.  His position in that article seems to be directly supportive of his position for withdrawing from the IPCC process as stated in his open letter .

(3) Near the end of the article that you reference, Dr. Landsea goes out of his way (i.e. he wanted to "jump in" on the question to Judith Curry) to make the following point:

CHRISTOPHER LANDSEA: Yeah. The methodology of the study, I have no problems with that. It's the data that I am concerned may be biasing the results. At the start of the study in 1970, while there were satellites peering down on the earth, there was no objective way to take a satellite picture of a hurricane and say what the winds were.

It wasn't until the mid-'70s that is a technique was even invented, and it wasn't until the mid-'80s before it was used globally and used all hours of the day and night. So I'm afraid that the changes in the satellites themselves, they're more numerous, they're giving more information. The techniques have changed. I'm concerned that that's giving the big jump in the number of Category 4s and 5s that may be artificial.

So in other words, he views the results of Judith Curry's research as being biased by the change in measuring techniques, NOT by AGW. 

(4) I don't know Dr. Landsea's more general position on AGW.  You seem to believe that he is a proponent of AGW just not in his own field of expertise.  As I highlight in (2) above, I don't believe that the article you provided substantiates your claim of a more general belief.  If you have anything more directly stating that I am open to hearing it.  But on the surface, Dr. Landsea seems to be legitimately restricting his commentary to his specific area of expertise and in THAT area he denies the results of the IPCC report.

(5) The overall effect of Dr. Landsea's withdrawal are two fold:

(a) It directly refutes the claims of the IPCC as they apply to hurricane intensity, and thus reduces the over-all credibility of the report as it applies to the science described therein.

(b) We have no reason to believe that that Landsea's experience was in any way unique in this respect.  So while it provides no direct refutation of any of the science in any other areas of the IPCC reports, it does introduce an element of doubt as to the veracity of the conclusions being drawn overall.  You refer to this as "politicization", I refer to this as "faulty conclusions."  In this respect we are both correct.

(6) See my edit to the diary above.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Statistics needed -- The Deniers Part I

I am finally getting around to reading these articles and commenting in more detail ...

Statistics needed -- The Deniers Part I

I found this article to be an interesting read.  The primary points I took away from the article were:

  1. Michael Mann was the author of the now famous Hockey Stick Graph which was ultimately discredited as being faulty in 2001 by Dr. Edward Wegman and an assembled panel of professional statisticians all of who were working pro bono.
  2. The the official view of the International Panel for Climate Change in 2001 regarding the Hockey Stick Graph was unsupportable.
  3. Two Canadians, Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, published peer-reviewed critiques of Mann's work of their own.
  4. Wegman: "Our committee believes that the assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade in a millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year in a millennium cannot be supported"
  5. Wegman: "I am baffled by the claim that the incorrect method doesn't matter because the answer is correct anyway. Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science."
  6. With bad science, only true believers can assert that they nevertheless obtained the right answer.

Dr. Wegman is a professor at the Center for Computational Statistics at George Mason University, chair of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, and board member of the American Statistical Association.

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Mann's findings were arguably the single most influential study in swaying the public debate, and in 2001 they became the official view of the International Panel for Climate Change, the UN body that is organizing the worldwide effort to combat global warming. But Mann's work also had its critics, particularly two Canadians, Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, who published peer-reviewed critiques of their own.

Wegman accepted the energy and commerce committee's assignment, and agreed to assess the Mann controversy pro bono. He conducted his third-party review by assembling an expert panel of statisticians, who also agreed to work pro bono. Wegman also consulted outside statisticians, including the Board of the American Statistical Association. At its conclusion, the Wegman review entirely vindicated the Canadian critics and repudiated Mann's work.

"Our committee believes that the assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade in a millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year in a millennium cannot be supported," Wegman stated, adding that "The paucity of data in the more remote past makes the hottest-in-a-millennium claims essentially unverifiable." When Wegman corrected Mann's statistical mistakes, the hockey stick disappeared.

Wegman found that Mann made a basic error that "may be easily overlooked by someone not trained in statistical methodology. We note that there is no evidence that Dr. Mann or any of the other authors in paleoclimate studies have had significant interactions with mainstream statisticians." Instead, this small group of climate scientists were working on their own, largely in isolation, and without the academic scrutiny needed to ferret out false assumptions.

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In other words, Wegman believes that much of the climate science that has been done should be taken with a grain of salt -- although the studies may have been peer reviewed, the reviewers were often unqualified in statistics. Past studies, he believes, should be reassessed by competent statisticians and in future, the climate science world should do better at incorporating statistical know-how.

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While Wegman's advice -- to use trained statisticians in studies reliant on statistics -- may seem too obvious to need stating, the "science is settled" camp resists it. Mann's hockey-stick graph may be wrong, many experts now acknowledge, but they assert that he nevertheless came to the right conclusion.

To which Wegman, and doubtless others who want more rigorous science, shake their heads in disbelief. As Wegman summed it up to the energy and commerce committee in later testimony: "I am baffled by the claim that the incorrect method doesn't matter because the answer is correct anyway. Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science." With bad science, only true believers can assert that they nevertheless obtained the right answer.

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Edward Wegman received his Ph.D. degree in mathematical statistics from the University of Iowa. In 1978, he went to the Office of Naval Research, where he headed the Mathematical Sciences Division with responsibility Navy-wide for basic research programs. He coined the phrase computational statistics, and developed a high-profile research area around this concept, which focused on techniques and methodologies that could not be achieved without the capabilities of modern computing resources and led to a revolution in contemporary statistical graphics. Dr. Wegman was the original program director of the basic research program in Ultra High Speed Computing at the Strategic Defense Initiative's Innovative Science and Technology Office. He has served as editor or associate editor of numerous prestigious journals and has published more than 160 papers and eight books.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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The enemy here

is putting policy ahead of data.

"Deniers" and "supporters" will tend to find evidence to back their own view. Policy statements and vast conclusins should be avoided.

Best is to avoid all that by going to the data oneself. The IPCC reports are already at a high level of abstraction from the data, and one should go no higher.

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