The SC 2008 Shameless Prediction Thread, Part I
Great idea, promoted by Brendan
With the election "just around the corner" according to our Beloved Media, there has been no restraint on the media to declare next year's Election outcomes for 2008 President. This is the earliest start of the Presidential Race. (In contrast, Clinton entered the race for President in October 1991, not February of that year. Bush started his journey in June 1999.) Granted, there are still a few people who are waiting for the right time to jump into this election--yet, the media has done a terrific job this year crowning the candidates down to the one's they like. It's an old practice. Take for instance, the Media Oracles' predictions before the 2004 Iowa Caucus:
On Fox News Sunday, 18 January 2004:
Brit Hume: “I'll guess that the Dean ground game will prevail and that he will win. But that's totally a guess.”Mara Liasson: “Yes, that's totally a wild guess, and I would guess the same....I don't know who's going to win. I mean, if you want me to make a wild guess, I'll make a wild guess, which I would put no money on, for Howard Dean.”
Bill Kristol: “I think John Kerry could win a comfortable victory tomorrow night, and I think Howard Dean could run third or fourth.”
Juan Williams: “I think they're going to have a record number of people turn out tomorrow night, Monday night. And I think that Howard Dean will prevail. But I must say, it's because you have all these newcomers, all this energy and excitement.”
Poor Juan. Point for Mr. Kristol in this instance...Funny watching them hedge so much though.
Below is a graph of the polling tracked throughout 2003 (year before the elections).
The media of course, confirmed one thing about polls--they're good about predicting yesterday, not tomorrow.
So, I figure, the media is just guessing, why can't we?
Therefore, I invite you to be a Media Hack for a Day and make some predictions. Where will we be months from now? Here are some suggested questions, covering not only politics but other stuff as well. Answer to the best of your ability, using your historic data projections, politician ground game, gut.. We'll come back in a few months and see how we do!
10 QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
POLITICS/ECONOMY:
1. How will the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina play out in each party? (Feel free to predict late entries and their impact as well).
2. Where will we be in terms of the Iraq War? Better Progress, worse, or pretty much the same?
3. Will the stock market and housing market be significantly/marginally better, significantly/marginally worsened, or about the same as today (August 15th, 2007)?
4. Will there be any "attack on Christmas" this year? Any takers on any pundits bringing up such attacks?FAMOUS PEOPLE
5. Care to make any predictions regarding any famous people being involved in serious crimes, or any people dying unexpectedly?
6. In what area will someone become a Household Name by January next year? (Examples--American Idols, Inventors/Inventions, etc.)WORLD EVENTS
7. Predict any major intentional/natural disasters that will impact the US, Europe, etc. Before January 15th, 2008. Try to be specific (health scare, infrastructure collapse, terrorist attack).
8. Our relationship with Iran will____.
9. Our relationship with China will___.SWORDS CROSSED, JANUARY 2008
10. Our beloved Swords Crossed will _____ over the next 5 months. Explain.
Feel free to work in groups, but you all should turn in your own work. :-)
I will put mine in shortly, but would like to see what you guys have to say.
- Charles J's diary
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Comments :
Predictions
POLITICS/ECONOMY:
Without predicting individual primaries, Clinton will be the clear frontrunner amongst the Democratsafter the first group of primaries. Amongst the Republicans, it will be a virtual tie between Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani.
Things will be about the same in September. The President will announce the surge to be a success and will announce a phased withdrawal plan not dissimilar from the Iraq Study Group plan. Congress will pass a bill to fund such a plan.
The S&P 500 will continue to be volatile with traders in control until Labor Day. Countrywide Mortgage (CFC) will go bankrupt, sparking the biggest one day decline in the markets since 9/11. The S&P 500 finishes the year around 1280, or about 10% lower than it is now. The housing market will still be the major topic in economic news at the end of the year.
My only prediction is that if there is a pundit making such attacks, I won't be watching :-P
Barry Bonds gets indicted. Dianne Feinstein still walks the earth a free woman somehow. RIP Clint Eastwood, George HW Bush.
A pretty brunette will be come up missing on vacation in Cozumel. The manhunt for this brunette, possibly named Abigail, will dominate the news and become ingrained in our souls.
A Cat 4 hurricane will strike New Orleans. Bush responds quicker this time, but the end result is similar. FEMA is shown to be about useless. The only heroes who emerge are brave individuals.
8. Our relationship with Iran will be about the same as today.
9. Our relationship with China will be about the same as today. China will start efforts to use small amounts of its reserves to buy American natural resources, perhaps focusing on less scrutinized resources such as timber or mining interests.
Our beloved SwordsCrossed will thrive and prosper over the next 5 months of course. The NY Times will do a front page article about bipartisan blogs. From there it will be straight up. Ender will appear on Meet the Press opposite James Carville. He and GoRight will collaborate in an op-ed piece in the Post. YearlySwordsCrossed will be announced, organized by someone other than skymutt ;-) Annoying banners from corporate America will appear on the SwordsCrossed home page. Ender will quit his job and hire his first employee.
Or, we might just add one more regular conservative poster ;-) Aqua and pink options will be added for color bars, both of which I try out for a while.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
I like them!
I'll put mine out tomorrow morning.
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
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Re: Countrywide
More here
and here 
... certainly doesn't look good.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
the Redstate link... -- ouch!
Even more Countrywide.
And predictably, this alarmed the market.
So, a valued client of ML. You probably don't talk about bankruptcy with respect to your client unless there really is a good possibility that they're on the way out. Otherwise, it's bad business.
And just so we're clear, we're talking about a company that does a huge amount of business:
1 in 5 home loans. $1.4 trillion in loans that it services. That's a lot of dough.
S&P futures down another 1% in premarket trading...
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Even more Countrywide-- CEO dumping his stock at staggering rate
Countrywide's CEO has sold over $200 million in his personal holdings of Countrywide stock this year!
(I think the blogger missed a decimal point... he's *only* dumped 8.5 million shares.
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Wild guesses
1. Clinton wins Iowa but then gets torpedoed by dirt coming from both the left and the right and Obama wins the nomination, asks Warner to VP. Edwards finishes second in South Carolina. On the other side, McCain makes a surprising resurgence when conservatives realize Rudy and Romney are both flip-flopping liberals. Fred! never gets off the ground, undone by his (surprising, for an actor) lack of charisma. Romney squeaks out the nomination ahead of McCain and asks Pawlenty and Jeb Bush to VP but is turned down by both, then settles for Huckabee.
2. Doesn't matter what happens, we'll be "making progress" and Bush will just run out the clock until he can dump the problem on Obama. We'll withdraw some of the troops ahead of the elections to try to keep the Republicans from getting completely blasted. Iraq will remain semi-stable without collapsing and without significant improvement.
3. Housing will begin to rebound (it has to, right?) but stocks drop slightly (Dow around 12500 in Dec).
4. There always seem to be.
5. The Queen of England dies. Russell Crowe breaks Leonardo DiCaprio's nose on set.
6. The winner of a Dance Dance Revolution tournament ends up on YouTube and does the late-night circuit.
7. There is an attempted terrorist attack involving a suicide bomber on the DC metro that is thwarted when the bomb doesn't detonate and passengers swarm the would-be martyr. Abbas is assassinated by Hamas.
8. Deteriorate. The hardliners within Iran can't afford to lose face or they'll lose power, and we've shown no indication under Bush of being able to play a carrot/stick game successfully. There will be limited military action between US and Iranian troops as we "secure the border" but neither side will escalate into actual war because we don't have the troops and Iran doesn't want to look like they're trying to invade Iraq.
9. Improve. China's draconian methods of dealing with dangerous exports will improve their quality, and the West will be eager to resume their consumption of cheap goods. China will also be on its best behavior ahead of the Olympics.
10. Increase in traffic by 50% after five months (consistent with current growth). Begin to get noticed by the big blogs, both left and right. Get a brief mention in some small paper doing a story about politics online (we can be pro-active about this). Host a political debate between the Republican and Democratic student groups for some college (ditto).
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Predictions
>> Obama will pull out a victory in Iowa, but the bigger story is Clinton placing third behind Edwards. Obama will then take New Hampshire, while Clinton takes Nevada. All eyes focus on South Carolina and Obama takes it in a squeaker. However, Feb 5th will maybe be another story.
>>Fred! will fizzle, strangely because his continued delays to enter the race builds up his hype so high that even he can't perform. Fred will come across as weak in the fall debates, and will fall to third behind RG and Romney. Romney will take Iowa, and Guiliani New Hampshire. Huckabee makes a surprisingly strong showing in South Carolina, but Tsunami Tuesday ensures a Guiliani victory in the and will pick up Huck as a VP.
>>Marginally better--depending on which news service you talk to. The Surge will produce results where the surgers are, but conditions will be the same as today or worse where the Surge isn't.
>> The Stock Market will improve on-year. The housing plunge will be stopped artificially by continued Fed intervention and maybe a rate cut. I predict a 6% gain, boosted by holiday shopping, despite the sub-prime meltdown.
>> Expect Bill O'Reilly's introduction to the Holiday/Christmas season with obscure stories in Middle America communities and corporate businesses "attack" on Christmas. Expect candidates to comment in the debates, injecting a flurry of discussions into the national discussion about our declining culture. Lou Dobbs will somehow link the topic to illegal immigration.
>>R. Kelly will inexplicably not go to jail, Michael Vick will. America will also find time to care what Lohan/Winehouse/Hilton/Richie did. We'll say goodbye to Dick Clark before the next New Year's Rockin Eve, and discover that he is indeed, not immortal.
>>Expect a YouTuber to make major news when he catches someone on the campaign trail off guard. While that person may not be well known, what he got the candidate to to will.
>> A major earthquake in the Far East, a Hurricane will hit the Southeast, possible New Orleans, but the response will be much quicker as more people evacuate before the storm hits and damage is not as bad as before.
>>A Thwarted attack is discovered in the US, and as a result we won't be able to carry computers as carry ons for a short time.
>>...not change much. Increased pressure by the Administration will produce a lot of talk and rhetoric. Ahmedinejad will lose clout and the people will most likely oust him politically (or perhaps more forcefully).
>>...improve. Expect more recalls, and as the world starts to pull stuff from their shelves, China will improve their goods and services. Prices will most certainly increase, and they will suddenly become friendly in anticipation of the Olympics (as you mentioned).
>>Continue to increase in membership. With more participation in Second Life and member recruiting there, people will be drawn to the site's multi-partisan appeal, strong opinions, and (usually) good use of humor and comfort. One of our bloggers will end up at one of the Debates and will get some (brief) camera time.
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
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A Thwarted attack is
My addition to this: the airlines will still simultaneously start charging extra for checked bag #2... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
Here's mine
Dems:
Edwards will squeak out a win in Iowa, Obama will squeak out a win in NH.
In SC, Hillary will throw tons of money at getting that first win, but will finish third in a tight race behind Edwards and Obama.
GOP:
Giuliani will cruise in NH
Thompson will win SC
Iowa may go to Romney, but won't matter... his campaign will be on life support following SC.
Pretty much the same. GOP will paint it as better, Dems will paint it as worse.
The market will still be stagnant... which will renew calls from the administration to make the tax cuts permanent.
O'Reilly, of course. It's the only kind of schtick he has left.
Dying in the next year:
(just hunches)
Fidel Castro
Nick Nolte
Henry Kissinger
Abe Vigoda
Arrested:
Hillary Duff (to keep up with Lindsay, Paris, and Brittany)
at least 4 members of the Cincinnati Bengals
As for the other things... I got nothing....
“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” --- Albert Einstein
Bengals
Heh-- that's not a prediction, that's a lock certainty:
I don't know what it is about Cincinnati and athletes, but they get in trouble with the law at ridiculous rates there. My favorite was former University of Cincinnati basketball player Art Long:
Michael Vick needs to sign up Art Long's lawyers for their creativity...
skymutt: wise and powerful... enlightened...
my predictions
1. How will the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina play out in each party? (Feel free to predict late entries and their impact as well).
Gore will enter the fray on the Dem side but Hillary will pull it out in all 3 states and eventually become the nominee. Gingrich will join in and act as the spoiler for the GOP. Gingrich will pull an upset in Iowa, Giuliani will win in NH, and Huckabee pull an upset in SC. Giuliani will become the nominee and take Huckabee as his VP.
2. Where will we be in terms of the Iraq War? Better Progress, worse, or pretty much the same?
After Petraeus report of Surge's success we will start moving towards drawdown of troops with Democrat support.
3. Will the stock market and housing market be significantly/marginally better, significantly/marginally worsened, or about the same as today (August 15th, 2007)?
Given that the stock market is currently taking a beating I'd say it will be better than today.
4. Will there be any "attack on Christmas" this year? Any takers on any pundits bringing up such attacks?
John Gibson and Bill O'Reilly will manage to defend Christmas yet again from the Daily Kos and the rest of the left's culture warrior atheists.
5. Care to make any predictions regarding any famous people being involved in serious crimes, or any people dying unexpectedly?
Dick Cheney.
6. In what area will someone become a Household Name by January next year? (Examples--American Idols, Inventors/Inventions, etc.)
Nothing coming up for this short term :)
7. Predict any major intentional/natural disasters that will impact the US, Europe, etc. Before January 15th, 2008. Try to be specific (health scare, infrastructure collapse, terrorist attack).
Paris will be hit by a terrorist attack - 300+ dead. France will move closer to US on Foreign Policy.
8. Our relationship with Iran will____.
We will be getting ready to strike Iran - tensions at an all time high.
9. Our relationship with China will___.
Not change.
10. Our beloved Swords Crossed will _____ over the next 5 months. Explain.
Will hopefully get more contributors and more traffic. Agreed about SL helping in that.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Hey Ender... haven't you heard?
The White House is not going to let Petraeus give a report to the American people
“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” --- Albert Einstein
I heard
but it's all the same to me.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
1. How will the primaries in
1. How will the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina play out in each party?
A blinding snowstorm hits Iowa on Caucus Day. Due to low turnout, Bill Richardson and Tom Tancredo pull shocking upsets. Both go on to win their nominations but both campaigns implode when it is discovered that Richardson entered the country illegally and Tancredo was once an Imperial Wizard. America groans.
2. Where will we be in terms of the Iraq War?
Petraeus' report won't surprise anyone. Bush will continue to stonewall. Republicans in the Senate will pretend to be concerned. Sistani will be assassinated in November and all hell will break loose. The British will be forced to evacuate Basra. Sunni guerrillas will crash a plane into the Green Zone.
3. Will the stock market and housing market be significantly/marginally better, significantly/marginally worsened, or about the same as today (August 15th, 2007)?
The Fed will be forced to cut rates substantially.
4. Will there be any "attack on Christmas" this year? Any takers on any pundits bringing up such attacks?
Bill O'Reilly will launch his War Against the War on Christmas before Halloween this year (it gets earlier and earlier every year). An angry mob dressed as elves will tar and feather him.
FAMOUS PEOPLE
5. Care to make any predictions regarding any famous people being involved in serious crimes, or any people dying unexpectedly?
Dead: Britney Spears
Indicted: Barry Bonds
Resign: David Vitter
7. Predict any major intentional/natural disasters that will impact the US, Europe, etc. Before January 15th, 2008. Try to be specific (health scare, infrastructure collapse, terrorist attack).
Category 5 hurricane hits Florida with 4,000 dead.
8. Our relationship with Iran will____.
Bush will launch an attack against Iran. Iran will shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Oil will soar to $150 a barrel. Hezbollah will launch missiles into downtown Tel Aviv setting off another war.
10. Our beloved Swords Crossed will _____ over the next 5 months. Explain.
Rival DKos in size and be denounced as a hate site. Ender will appear on Meet The Press.
qui tacet consentire
that's some
dire predictions... Extremely fun filled so to speak.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Plants tongue firmly in cheek
Primaries? As a member of the mushy middle, I am officially not supposed to know they exist. Any opinion I have will be firmly discounted as incorrect by definition.
It's going to get a lot worse. Even beginning a withdrawal is not going to reduce our casualties and the number of civilians killed; in fact, it's likely to bring on more of the dogs of war than most expect or are prepared to see.
The stock market traditionally takes a bit of a dive in the latter half of the year but appears generally healthy and will cycle up and down as usual. My personal opinion is that the US stock market is running a bit too hot and a significant event (natural or manmade) will cause a very unpleasant jittery reaction. We have not yet seen the bottom of the housing market crash nor its ripple effects.
How else will Bill O'Reilly spend his holidays? You don't seriously believe he gets invited anywhere, do you?
Death comes for us all. Cheney's death could have some unpleasant repercussions that I'd rather not contemplate.
My husband "Baldi" will be on the cover of Newsweek as the latest SL tycoon. He will not have made any actual money, of course, but his avatar will be in a permanent state of happiness and joy. Like Christmas 24/7.
Oh something is bound to happen. "When Mars is with Sirius, the Eagle who looks both ways lays waste to the land of Nachos, while the River by the Wall runs green."
You call a pissing match a relationship?
We still bow down before the empire.
SC will continue to gain and lose members, especially as the contentious election season approaches. The regulars here will have to dispatch a few of the, um, more wayward types that follow me here from SL (rueful smile) but they'll enjoy doing it. Keeps the skills sharp.
Ender and Specter will film a SC debate using their SL avatars which becomes a YouTube legend. A cross between a serious debate and a Southpark episode. Prime and I will be the dancing girls in the background.
We may actually have one whole thread where no one is intentionally misunderstood or unnecessarily provocative. We'll have it engraved on a plaque.
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
Purpledamus..
Man, if you engraved this on a tablet somewhere people can take it to mean almost anything. Imagine the "expert" analysis:
Expert 1: What Purpledamus' phophecy says here is clear.
In the next few years, Americans from all walks of life will invade Mexico as they throw their US currency into the rio Grande. She's warning us of the upcoming NAU and anarchy!
Expert 2: Nonsense. Look at the "Mars and Sirius." She clearly was referring to the Masterfoods-Sirius-XM Merger and their subsequent outsourcing of the satellite production to Mexico. After the merger fails, crippling the Mexico economy Wall Street will be flowing with money. The River represents our economy. Simple.
Expert 1 : Nu-uhhhhh!
Expert 2: Uh-huuuuh!
Sean: We'll be right back with more fair and balanced coverage of the Purple Prophecy here on Hannity and Carville!
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
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Brawl: 2277-7051-2186
Some predictions:
POLITICS/ECONOMY:
1. Early primaries: Even though both parties say the early primaries won't affect the final results, there will be so much media noise over the numbers (people obsess over poll numbers) that it'll end up impacting the results no matter what. People will drop and others will join, but the biggest effect is that poll winners will carry those victories into the primaries that "matter" (voters like going with winners).
2. Iraq war: no change, honestly
3. Stock market: also no change
4. O'Reilly will launch an entire campaign, and Sam Seder will launch a devastating counterattack
.
FAMOUS PEOPLE
5. I'd rather not. I'd rather I stop hearing about most of them, honestly. (although, if we're going to cover celebrities stripping naked while drunk in public spaces, I'd prefer at least some of those celebrities be male for once)
6. Blogging. Enough Youtube vids are starting to break into mainstream culture that we're going to start with serious Youtube celebrity-izing.
WORLD EVENTS
7. Bad luck in Slavic cultures to make this kind of prediction without spitting three times over my shoulder. Tfu Tfu Tfu!
8. Our relationship with Iran will continue with this endless cat-and-mouse as popular dissatisfaction there bubbles over (I'm hopeful).
9. Our relationship with China will decline as China starts taking over more and more of our economic territory.
SWORDS CROSSED, JANUARY 2008
10. Our beloved Swords Crossed will be the target of an intense NSA probe over the next 5 months, due to GoRight's preternaturally accurate predictions about terrorist activities. All the predictions will turn out wrong, but they'll coincide so exactly with rumblings in Chertoff's tummy that eyebrows will be raised.
Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce