What are Iran's nuclear intentions?
Continuing a discussion from yesterday, I want to explore why Iran is insisting on constructing a heavy water reactor at Arak:
Iran says Arak, due for completion in 2009, will produce radio-isotopes for medical care and agriculture. Western officials fear it could yield plutonium, one of the two prime components -- besides highly-enriched uranium -- in atom bombs.
There are various types of nuclear weapons , ranging from crude fission bombs like "Little Boy" to sophisticated fusion (hydrogen) bombs. Obviously even the crude devises can do enormous damage. These days the technological know-how is difficult to control (although there are almost certainly ongoing efforts by the US to provide incorrect information to sabotage
development efforts) and so efforts to prevent a nation from acquiring nuclear weapons tend to focus on controlling access to the ingredients that could make up a bomb. Those ingredients can be produced as byproducts of a reactor, as mentioned above, or through repeated enrichment with centrifuges or other techniques.
Here's where it gets interesting. There are two common types of thermal nuclear reactors, "heavy" water (deuterium oxide) moderated and "light" (normal) water moderated. Because heavy water reactors do a better job of thermalizing neutrons they can run on unenriched uranium, while light water reactors require mildly enriched (a few percent) uranium. Note that weapons grade uranium is 90%+ enriched. Heavy water reactors are more difficult to manufacture but it's easy to obtain fuel for them; they also produce more plutonium and hence are a better choice if the goal is to make a bomb.
A summary of how this relates to Iran:
RFE/RL: Iran is building a heavy-water reactor at Arak, which it says will be used for research and other civilian purposes. Is that a plausible explanation, in your view?
Barnaby: It's a good size for research purposes, maybe a bit on the large side, but a good size. But it does produce plutonium, which could be used for nuclear weapons. So it's dual-purpose, really.
RFE/RL: Why would Iran choose to build a heavy-water plant, if it were truly only interested in research and producing electricity? Is there a rational explanation?
Barnaby: The advantage of a heavy-water reactor from the Iranian point of view is that it can be fueled with natural uranium [which Iran has]. You don't have to enrich the uranium to fuel it. So that is an advantage from the Iranian point of view.
The thing is, Iran also already has a deal with Russia to manufacture and supply fuel for a light water reactor at Bushehr. The US is still concerned about this because they worry that the fuel will not be tightly controlled. In theory Russia will supply the enriched uranium and Iran will ship back the spent fuel, and because Russia knows exactly how much went in they can calculate how much should come out and Iran will not be able to use the material towards a bomb. This is an ideal way to provide a country with nuclear power while denying them nuclear weapons -- give them a LWR, sell them the fuel, and dispose of the byproducts. I don't think the US is thrilled about Russia running the accounting, however. The plant has been delayed, according to Russia because Iran hasn't paid, and Iran claims this justifies them pursuing enrichment
despite the UN's repeated calls for them to cease such activities.
So, to conclude, if I ran a country and wanted nuclear power but not nuclear weapons, and I wanted to convince the world of my good intentions, I would:
- Contract with a first-world nation to obtain a LWR and fuel
- Not build a heavy water reactor
- Not pursue uranium enrichment
- Provide the IAEA with complete access
This is not what Iran has done. Recent events (such as permitting the IAEA to tour Arak) give cause for optimism and we can certainly hope that Iran will provide full access and account for all nuclear material, but it must be emphasized that, whatever one thinks of the US' tone in negotiations, it is the actions of Iran that have raised legitimate skepticism as to their claims that they only want nuclear power and are not pursuing weapons.

Comments :
I imagine
they have several intentions. Self defense, power, and wanting respect and to be left alone to have pride in their culture.
Haven't they signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Which is what Putin said.
Ironic that Bush stands side by side with the ultra-Pacificst the Dali Lama, defying China, and on the same day gives a speech waving around WWlll.
I'm only half stupid
Yes, they have, which means
they're prohibited from developing nuclear weapons unless they give 90 days notice and then withdraw.
If they want to be left alone they should follow the steps outlined above; the way they are currently pursuing nuclear power is just not going to result in them being left alone, fair or not.
Nor are their actions really helpful for self defense, since the very reason targeted strikes are even being considered is because there's a concern Iran is trying to make a bomb. They have no major regional enemies now that we took out Saddam -- Israel is too far away to ever threaten an invasion even if Israel had those kind of insane ambitions.
Just my opinion, but I don't understand their actions.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
With the right weaponry, Israel is not too far away...
... to strike at Iranian facilities. If Iran is anywhere from two years to 12 years away from having a bomb, why not make sure Israel has the weaponry to do the job?
If you really believe this is the "fight of our lives," how come you're not in Iraq?
Yes, I agree on that
From our perspective this makes sense if it becomes apparent that Iran presents a genuine nuclear threat. From Iran's perspective I'm surprised that they would leave themselves open to such strikes. I don't think Israel would be as concerned if they were running a LWR with the fuel and byproducts tightly controlled, but maybe I'm miscalculating the degree of paranoia.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Isarel has better intelligence than we do...
... particularly about a country in their own backyard.
Look what they just did in Syria.
According to many reports, Cheney is the one pushing hard for a strike before Bush leaves office. Saner heads in the administration and the military are prevailing, but for how long? If Cheney and company have proven one thing, it's that they can always find a general willing to say what they want him to say and do what they want him to do.
Israel knows what they're doing in these types of operations. We should let them take care of it (with our weapons support). After all, they have the most at stake.
If you really believe this is the "fight of our lives," how come you're not in Iraq?
I agree with all of this
The only thing I'd add is that I'd prefer to see Israel turn over its leaders just like the US will -- after the way they butchered Lebanon I don't trust their judgment (although the Syrian strike was impressive, if the rumors are accurate).
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
They have no major regional enemies?
Are you discounting the US, which is now in the region next door. The US is Iran's biggest enemy at present.
I just think it is inane to keep poking sticks in their eye, when doing so has the potential for further radicalizing younger Iranians, who have been pro-Western.
I agree with Gen. Abaziad. We can live with a nuclear Iran. Especially with Russia's co-operation in making the plutonium for clean energy nuclear power.
It would be swell if the US could say, here ya go. Have all the clean power you want. Here is a solar panel that will provide energy to every home. Now help us defeat al Queda in Pakistan.
I'm only half stupid
All I'm saying
is that this conflict isn't arising in a vacuum. Iran's chosen method of pursuing nuclear power has predictably antagonized the West.
I don't think the US has any territorial ambitions in Iran. We're not a direct threat unless we decide they are trying to get a nuclear weapon.
Maybe the US/UN could work with Russia to regulate the Bushehr plant, although our relations with them are a bit chilly at the moment. Partially because of Iran, natch.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
I often think
the real reason we chose to invade and occupy Iraq is to go after Iran. So I am not so sure about the US's lack of territorial ambition.
This really is the Petrol War. Pipelines, access, waterways,
I'm only half stupid
The reality is that over the years Iranian
leaders have said clearly and repeatedly that they want to have nuclear weapons. They have tons of oil for energy, so they don't need nuclear power. They have been buying Rusian nuclear technology to acquire these weapons.
Further their leaders are certified Islamofascists. What else is their to know? We don't need anymore diplomatic engagement or IAEA inspection trips or UN involvement--all these things are just delay tactics by Iran and its foreign enablers so as to allow Iran to complete development of its weapons.
I am not happy about the idea of an air attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, because we don't know what else will result from same. Other than trying to overthow the Iranian Mullahs, we have two bad choices: allow Iran to go nuclear or bomb the nuke facilities. So the least bad decision is to bomb the nuke facilities.
name the enemy, win the war
Just like we did with Pakistan.
Oh, wait. We didn't do that.
If you really believe this is the "fight of our lives," how come you're not in Iraq?
That is the least good idea
and I totally disagree with your assessment of the situation.
No point citing facts, in these cases, since your side always SwiftBoats them, such as how Iranians had been making more US friendly gestures in 03, or how Iran helped us in Afganistan. The only word you want to hear is Islamofacists/Liberals/ Enemy. You seem to see them everywhere.
It almost feels like some kind of marketing campaign for war. After all wars are profitable for some. And I note that the has been courting
Hillary.
I'm only half stupid
Don't worry. Our Commander-in-Chief is calming the waters.
As usual...
Bush: Threat of World War III if Iran goes nuclear
If you really believe this is the "fight of our lives," how come you're not in Iraq?
Diplomatically, I think our best help might be from
Russia. They have an in with Iran that we don't share. Maybe we could get their help to try and prod Iran to go with the light water reactors instead of the heavy water ones.
If they did produce a bomb, I don't think we could hold Israel back. Granted, Iran is a bit farther away than Syria is from Israel, but it's not like they would ask us permission anyway. And while I am less concerned about an Iranian bomb than I am a Pakistani bomb getting into the wrong hands, others here don't share my faith in mutually assured destruction.
I don't mind Iran producing it's own uranium though.