Wednesday Open Thread -- Dream Ticket Edition
Question for you folks: what's the greatest weakness you see in your current favorite candidate, and who would you pick as VP to balance out the ticket and address that weakness?
I'm hoping for Obama to get the Democratic nomination, and my greatest concern is his lack of foreign policy experience. I do agree that it's better to get issues *right* than to have a long and decidedly mixed track record, but I still think he could benefit from more hands-on seasoning. Another concern is his lack of management experience -- he's a Senator not a Governor and so he hasn't had to deal with the day-to-day realities of running an organization. My top VP candidate would be Richardson, who has the foreign policy experience and the executive experience to help Obama as he gets his feet wet and to make voters more comfortable voting for a younger President. Not an original analysis, of course, but one that I think makes a lot of sense.
What's your candidate's greatest weakness, and who is the perfect VP candidate?

Comments :
I would love Mike Huckabee to win the nomination and
pick either Fidel Castro or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as his running mate.
That works for me.
Judging from some of the vitriol coming Huckabee's way,
maybe some on the right are concerned about exactly that =)
I'm encouraged to see him beginning to challenge Giuliani. Most of the reasons that conservatives don't like him are positives in my book (not all). Now that he's a serious contender, though, he'll start facing the same kind of scrutiny and attacks that the other big four have had to deal with.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Like this?
"The Politico's David Paul Kuhn was among
a group of reporters who had dinner with Mike Huckabee in Iowa tonight. According to a transcript posted by Jonathan Martin, Kuhn asked Huckabee about the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, and it was news to Huckabee:
Kuhn: I don’t know to what extent you have been briefed or been able to take a look at the NIE report that came out yesterday ...
Huckabee: I’m sorry?
Kuhn: The NIE report, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. Have you been briefed or been able to take a look at it —
Huckabee: No.
Kuhn: Have you heard of the finding?
Huckabee: No.
After Kuhn explained the NIE's findings to Huckabee, Huckabee seemed confused about what it meant. Beyond doing nothing to resolve doubts about his foreign policy qualifications, the exchange underscores the fact that Huckabee doesn't really have much of a campaign, in the sense that Giuliani and Romney have campaigns, with teams of advisers and carefully-thought-out policy positions. In important ways, he has been flying by the seat of his pants, relying on his unequaled talents as a retail campaigner. But now that he is leading in Iowa, and moving up nationally as well, the deficiencies of his campaign might come more and more into the spotlight. "
Ouch, hadn't heard that one
In addition to his shoe-string campaign he has some baggage that will probably get more airtime now.
I think he'd do alright
in the general against Hillary, though -- he'd probably get some votes from moderates who normally vote D.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
OK, so I may have had some tongue in cheek in my
post.
I think Huckabee is more honest than many, both Democratic & Republican running for the Presidency.
I really don't have a problem with "people of faith" taking a leading role in running this country. I do have a problem with the idea that you have to be in agreement with that faith, or that faith has to recognize your faith as a "good" one. I think JFK's speech back in 1960
said it best.
He certainly doesn't seem like
a foreign policy candidate. But then again the actual GOP foreign policy candidates are all amazingly backwards on the matter. Naturally I'd prefer someone who is ignorant over someone who is actively wrong. Ignorance is much easier to fix.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
How 'bout
someone who's actively ignorant? ;)
The Republicans, generally, seem quite dangerous, because
the Republicans often run for election on a "moderate" platform, and then revert right back to what they were prior to their election campaign when they get elected into office by a gullible, unsuspecting public.
Giuliani, I think, might well be just as dangerous, if not more so, than Dubya.
His pretentious "heroism" on 9/11, plus his overall record as mayor of NYC speaks volumes for itself. The "no-bid" contract he had with Motorola, the fact that he issued the same radios to the NYFD that didn't work back in 1993, 8 years prior to sept. 11, and they hadn't even been tested prior to distribution. Moreover, many of the NYFD's firemen's "mayday" calls that day when they were trapped inside those WTC Towers went unheard, and many needless deaths of firemen resulted that day. Giuliani making the WTC towers themselves the communication center--on 9/11 yet....ridiculous.
Obama: He seems like a decent enough guy, but it's somewhat doubtful that he'd get the vote, being an African-American.
Kucinich: I like Kucinich for his bill on Universal Health Care.
Edwards: he's OK, too.
Al Gore" Too bad he's not running. I'd vote for h im.
At this point, however, I'm undecided about who I'll vote for.
The Iranian NIE report.
Larry Johnson at TPMCafe has a very interesting observation regarding the news that Iran stopped it's nuke (bomb) program back in 2003.
"The news that Iran ended its nuclear program in 2003 was briefed to George Bush in the Presidential Daily Brief. He has known about this, I am told, for at least one year."
Others have said that Cheney's office in particular has been fighting the release of this NIE for the last 6 months on every grounds they could throw at them.
I don't think that I'd go with the Bush has known for a year about the scrapped program, but I can't believe that he didn't know about it 6 months ago when Darth began trying to shovel it under the rug. My question therefore becomes:
"What did the President know about the scrapping of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and when did he know it? Let's see if he can answer that one any better than Nixon could.
That can't be possible
Because if it was then it would mean the president lied to us all yesterday. And I know that he would never do such a thing.
Never ever ever.
Nope. Nosiree.
qui tacet consentire
Pico's new profiles in literature is up
A brief excerpt:
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
After a couple of days of partisan back and forth
regarding Right leaning reporters news reports vs. left (we prefer the term progressive) leaning reporters news reports I find this post by SadlyNo! is great:
Making (Up) the News: Seven Case Studies
. He reviews the cases of:
Dan Rather, CBS News
Scott Thomas Beauchamp, The New Republic
Jamil Hussein, the Associated Press
Judith Miller, The New York Times
Michael Ledeen, Pajamas Media
Michael Yon, “Michael Yon Online Magazine”
W. Thomas Smith Jr., The National Review
It's a very good (and short) compare and contrast study.
Second Life meeting Tonight 5:30pm Pacific time
Yep, we're still at it. Come join us if you can. It's just an hour. This may be the last meeting of the year as holiday activities are beginning to consume me and everyone else.
I need to do an updated SL Politics diary. I landed at Jesus' General's dance floor a couple of days ago, and his bartender would make you smile. . . maybe over the holidays I'll find the time to pull a "OPOL" and put together a photo montage.
(that's a reference to One Pissed Off Liberal's Daily Kos picture posts)
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
You missed out
We wrapped up the meeting only about an hour ago. Not a huge turnout, but we ended up dancing on the rooftop dancefloor instead of sitting in the chairs on the patio.
Audrey was on fire (*waves*). And only made one reference to the USSR and Communism tonight.
I think maybe JohnD suspects I have a stockpile of weapons in my cellar for the end times; you know, when the need for empire really arrives. Rapid fire discussion via one line chat is fun but limiting ;}
Funniest comment of the night:
Soul Fortas: g'night all I'm going woman hunting
You: ooh, good luck Soul
BackHome Soon passes Soul a net he doesn't need anymore
JohnD Troglodite: do you eat what you hunt? or mount it on the wall?
Lodi McMillan prays Soul does not answer that question honestly
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
I'm liking Fred more and more...
First the tax plan, now this
? The guy's got some sense.
Now, if only he could actually catch on in any of the polling...
he is sensible
but why the hell is he barely campaigning... I don't get it but it has been one of the most lackluster campaigns I've ever seen. He had so much potential and now...
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Where have you been?
Haven't seen ya around these parts much.
pretty busy both at work
and working on a personal project + starting to exercise more, getting into shape. This week is pretty busy but next week I should be back.
Yeah, I know, this site needs to get some life! I blame PF. ;)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
That and we're missing GoRight's take on
the daily grind too.
But do take care of yourself. That's a good thing.
yeah GoRight is really missed!
Thanks bud :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I beg your pardon?
OK, so was this a test just to see if I'm paying attention? You should clarify that remark :}
Besides, Brendan has taken over chief scolder role. I am merely supporting cast. And it never stopped you anyway!
Steven has stepped into the breach lately and deserves kudos for that.
There's just not much going on for me to get worked up about right now. And I'm leading two lives. . . .lmao
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
hehehe just joking around
Not that we don't miss you hanging around here more often offering your sensible perspective :)
I hear ya :) I kinda agree on not too much going on policy wise but lots of election news!
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
It's nice to have a candidate you like
rather than a lesser of two evils kind of vote, but... yeah... his campaign has been much more whimper than bang. I don't think he has a prayer.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
how's the return back to work dude?
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I'm easing into it :)
Things are in pretty good shape so I'm not exactly straining myself the first day.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
good good take it easy :)
Plus we are approaching the holidays so at least here things do slow down.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Trevino on Huckabee
An illustration of why social conservatives are moving into Huckabee's camp
as primary season approaches:
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
I don't buy it
He's clearly worse on socialized medicine, being the only Republican candidate to oppose Bush's SCHIP veto.
He's clearly worse on free trade and has a habit of pandering to protectionist sentiments.
His economic record as governor is clearly worse than Bush's was; Bush was a tax-cutting governor, not a tax-hiking governor. And I don't buy the comparison against Reagan's record as governor; Reagan hiked taxes as CA governor at the start of his term because he discovered that the previous governor fudged the books and left him with a giant mess, and by the time he took office, it was pretty much too late to do anything about it. (And Reagan's strong support may well have singlehandedly made Prop 13 happen, even though that was after the end of his second term.) Huckabee, on the other hand, repeatedly hiked taxes and spending year after year after year, and gave speeches indicating that he thought this was all well and good.
He clearly buys into the whole "compassionate conservatism" thing. That may be a tie, but I can't imagine Huckabee (nor Bush, sadly) ever giving a speech like Reagan's 1st inaugural address.
Well, you could say Bush is clearly worse on a number
of issues too. I mean, he's the one who has pushed through billions of dollars of discretionary federal spending, which sort of offsets tax cuts as far as fiscal responsibility goes. I guess you can always argue that Huckabee would have spent at least as much but I'm not sure how convincing that really is -- Chuck Norris
might kick your ass if you tried to argue that case.
He's clearly worse on free trade and has a habit of pandering to protectionist sentiments.
That must be a recent stance, then, since CFG gave him a good report
on free trade in January:
Anyway, I don't think the social cons are under any illusions as to Huckabee's "compassionate conservativism" approach, I think they just consider "values" issues more important. I get the impression Trevino, for example, could support Fred if he thought he had more of a shot at the nomination, despite Thompson's so-so social conservative credentials -- he could be a candidate for both parts of the GOP but he doesn't seem to be catching on at all.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
I'm still not seeing it
That's exactly what I am arguing. If anything, Huckabee's statements and actions seem to indicate that he is willing to spend more money than Bush. For example, Huckabee would not have vetoed the SCHIP bill.
Did you see the updated report
?
Hmm, yes, reading through his debate responses also
he does seem to be drifting left on free trade. Thanks for the link.
SCHIP wasn't that much money -- something like $6 billion/year difference between Bush and the Dem/Rep coalition. You won't like the non-libertarian aspects of this, but Huckabee claims
that by "encouraging" preventative care we can save boatloads of $$ on medicaid. He's been more or less supportive of Bush on Iraq but if he'd had the sense to be a bit more efficient in how we handled that war he might have saved a few hundred billion dollars. Huckabee claims now that he would hold down discretionary spending, but of course that's easy to say when you're running for office -- I think Bush stated similar plans way back when.
Anyway, the interesting point here is that despite Huckabee's fiscal policies, social cons are willing to vote for him and try to rein him in on spending and taxes. Of course if you don't particularly care about the issues that motivate social conservatives Huckabee doesn't really offer that much as a Republican candidate, but they do make up a sizable chunk of primary voters.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Right, I'm not a social conservative
I'm moderate on social issues and conservative on economic issues. Huckabee is conservative on social issues and liberal on economic issues, which makes him a very poor fit for me.
If the Republicans choose to nominate someone who is liberal on economic issues, then I see no reason why I would support that candidate over someone like Hillary.
CBO analysis
suggests that the total spending increase from passing the bill would be about $11B/year in 2012, with the completely unrealistic assumption that a good number of those billions would suddenly be cut off in 2013.
More likely, the spending increases would be even larger in 2013 and beyond, especially due to the dynamics of the SCHIP program. SCHIP gives states a perverse incentive to spend ever more and more money, because a state gets $2 of federal money for every $1 spent by the state.
In fact, the bill actually *cuts* SCHIP spending compared to the baseline in the 2014-2017 years -- talk about a budget gimmick to make the numbers appear to all work out!
In any event, this seems like a pretty clear-cut issue on which Huckabee seems measurably worse than all the other Republican candidates. And I have seen no economic issues on which Huckabee is *better* than any of the other serious candidates.
Taxes is another issue where he seems to be clearly worse: Huckabee has come up with nothing other than the absurdly impractical FairTax plan on taxes.
To top it off, the best he could come up with for a government program he'd end was the IRS. Back in reality: the IRS isn't going away any time soon.
If he wants to claim that he's going to cut discretionary spending, great. Which specific programs does he advocate cutting? (Compare to someone like Fred who has given concrete proposals on how to cut Social Security spending.)
I averaged
~$35 billion over five years minus Bush's proposal which was still for $5 billion increase over five years (link
).
I don't know what Huckabee would cut, I agree he hasn't been particularly specific. All I could find from google was a generalized call for Bush to veto "Democratic spending bills" or some such drivel.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
More on Bush
from Cato
, "the number of subsidy programs has increased 25 percent since 2000."
The graph has that annoying non-zero y-axis intended to make fractional increases/decreases look larger and the x-axis is 5 year intervals except for the last point, and the whole 1776 thing is kind of lame... but it is yet more evidence of Bush's growth of government. Impossible to compare to Huckabee, I know, but still interesting.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Pretty meaningless
What is a "subsidy" program and why is it automatically better/worse than any other sort of government program? Wouldn't it be more interesting to look at the number of dollars spent (particularly as a percentage of GDP) than the number of programs?
Sure...
Here's non-defense discretionary spending
, which jumped under Bush (mostly with a GOP Congress). Here's "pork projects
" also increasing until recently. Of course things look a bit better as a fraction of GDP.
I guess it might be worth digging through the historical tables given here
(spreadsheets here
) but I don't have time at the moment.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Not defending the overall record
Just questioning the numbers you linked to, which were a pretty silly way of trying to make the point on Cato's part.
More to the point would be Cato's analyses of the governors.
1996
: Low B for Bush
1998
: High B for Bush, low B for Huckabee
2000
: High B for Bush, middle C for Huckabee
2002
: Low C for Huckabee
2004
: Low D for Huckabee
2006
: F for Huckabee, and overall D for his entire time as governor
The Bush record as governor was actually modestly encouraging. The Huckabee record was not.
Fair enough
I guess the question then is whether term as Governor is a good predictor of term as President as far as fiscal policy goes -- more specifically, whether there are cases of free-spending governors who cut spending as President (clearly there are cases of low-spending Governors who were free-spending Presidents). I have no idea offhand. It certainly makes sense for fiscal conservatives to be unenthusiastic about Huckabee.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
What else am I to look at?
I look at the Huckabee rhetoric, and it's not encouraging.
I look at the Huckabee record, and it's not encouraging either.
So what's left? Am I supposed to do a Vulcan Mindmeld with the guy to figure out what he "really" thinks?
Did you think Bush
was going to be a fiscal conservative?
It is the economy, stupid.
I was hopeful
The Bush administration economic policy looked somewhat reasonable in the pre-9/11 era... at least a solid C, maybe C+. It's only post-9/11 that he and Congress really let loose the floodgates of spending.
At the same time: what was the alternative? Sure, I would have rather had a Steve Forbes presidency or maybe even an Alan Keyes presidency, but that wasn't exactly about to happen.
And I'd love if the Republican Congressional delegation was full of Jeff Flakes and Tom Coburns and Jim DeMints, but back in reality, it isn't. At the same time, I'll take my new Congressman (Lamar Smith) any day over the average Democrat.
Were you aware of Bush's
past economic record running businesses?
Most of what he touched as a CEO broke and had to be bailed out, sometimes by the friends of his father the Saudi's. Someone else always rushed in with the money to bail him out with a large influx of cash. IN other words he was quite irresponsible. This didn't raise red flags for you?
It is the economy, stupid.
Bush pre-9/11?
How much economic policy could he have had in just 8 months as president?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
More supporting data
Overall state tax burden data
from the Tax Foundation.
Bush was governor of TX from 1995-2001, during which time the state tax burden fell from 9.6% to 9.4% (from 43rd highest in the nation to 44th highest).
Huckabee was governor of AR from 1996-2007, during which time the state tax burden grew from 10.1% to 11.3% (from 30th highest in the nation to 13th highest).
Bush took a low-tax state and left it about how he found it. Huckabee took a medium-tax state and left it a high-tax state.
Not sure that's the whole picture, though
I'd like to see full numbers for Texas and Arkansas during their terms: economic growth, tax income, spending, deficit/surplus. For example, the economy was better when Bush was governor, and Huckabee turned a deficit into a sizable surplus (yes, I know, it should go back as lower taxes =) but it's a relevant piece of information).
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
More on that
It's not like Bush left a giant mess for his successor; the TX tax burden has further decreased since he left office. Nor did he inherit a bunch of tax increases from the previous administration that made his life easy: the tax burden had also fallen the last few years prior to his governorship.
Huckabee came to office following several years of tax burden increases and at a time of general economic prosperity, so it's not like the previous governor stuck him with a bunch of unsustainable tax cuts (perhaps unsustainable spending increases...). Nothing about the numbers suggests that he can blame the 2001 recession; the large increases in Arkansas taxes happened almost entirely after 2003.
Yes, Huckabee left Arkansas with a large surplus. This suggests that many of those tax increases he's now getting so defensive about (all the claims about how he needed to hike taxes to fix the horrible roads and schools) may not have been necessary after all. In fact, the current (Democrat) governor is now pushing a grocery sales tax elimination
that Huckabee opposed
.
Huckabee, on the other hand, wanted to issue rebate checks
-- not exactly a good way to carry out tax policy. Not that eliminating the sales tax on groceries is the best policy either, but it certainly beats the old political stunt of sending everyone a check in the mail.
Nor are other aspects of his candidacy encouraging. Here's John Fund
:
There are also some choice quotes in that article about how he "destroyed the conservative movement in Arkansas," "has zero intellectual underpinnings in the conservative movement," and "was pro-life and pro-gun, but otherwise a liberal."
Maybe his campaign website will throw me a few bones? Nope.
His big education plan
is to have the federal government encourage arts and music. This is a federal responsibility... how? Nothing about vouchers or education tax credits, and the words "school choice" only appear with the word "public" in front of them.
His only spending proposal
is a line-item veto. No word on what specifically he might use that line-item veto to slash. He apparently has nothing to say on how to fix Social Security or Medicare.
He favors farm subsidies
.
He makes absurd promises about "energy independence"
. In only one sentence does he use the word "market"; that one sentence is directly contradicted by everything else he says on the topic. Nor does at any point he even say what his "plan" is.
Just about the only economic area where I could find that I agreed with more than about 50% of what he said was on health care
. But even then, he paints a fairly unrealistic picture of what it will take to fix our health care system, making it sound like there are easy and painless ways to improve things when in fact there are only tough choices.
I'm really not seeing what it is I'm supposed to like about this guy.
Depends on your definition
If Huckabee raises taxes but controls spending, I'd say he's fiscally better. Increasing spending but keeping taxes steady or cutting them would be fiscally worse.
Conservatives need to be pushing spending cuts, not tax cuts -- unless they really do believe lower taxes get us increased revenues, which would mean they aren't really for limited government anymore.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
I can see him liking Brownback.
Huckabee might be a lesser of two evils candidate for him.
Honestly, I think both major parties are coping with the same dilema.
Michelle Malkin is pissed!
It's the funny ones that make reading all these sites worth while.
Michelle Malkin is really upset that the "liberal media" has reported that Romney had illegal immigrants doing his yardwork
(via C&L). Really, here we have Our Lady of the Concentration Camps, Illegal Immigrant hater #1. But here the problem isn't that Romney was using their services, it's that it got reported.
Hipocrisy knows no bounds sometimes.
Well.....
My candidates greatest weakness is lack of MSM media exposure. He would set the nation on in-spire if he could get some spotlight.
His perfect VP..... Joe Biden, or maybe Chuck Hagel. I know that is pretty off the wall. But..... why not?
Oh yeah my favorite candidate is Obama.
It is the economy, stupid.
Personally
I worry about his foreign policy experience. Right now seems like a time when we need to be real careful about our actions abroad. bush has put us in a horrible position and recovering is going to be damn hard.
I'd prefer a candidate with both a good record and good ideas on foreign policy matters. I don;t see Obama as that person. Then again I'm hard pressed right now to find a candidate in either party who does seem to fit the description.
*sigh*
It's gonna be a long time before we repair our reputation.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Tlaloc if you look
at who his foreign policy adviisers are I think you will be reassured. Samantha Powers is one, and she is Brilliant and Knowledgeable and Eloquent and Tough and Realistic and Pragmatic.
No one person has the wherewithall to be an expert on everything, so you look at who their advisers are and who would be on their staff. By that measure Obama still looks good.
We can nix Guiliani, who is strongly supported by No-Man Podheretiz. That says to me Rudy would be a puppet for the neocons.
It is the economy, stupid.
The problem with advisors
is that you never know if the person in question will actually listen to them. Example- Bush having Powell and Rice as advisors would seem to be a decent choice for the GOP. Only problem was he also had Cheney/Wolfowitz/Bolton/Rumsfeld etc. We know now which set of advisors he listened to and which were generally ignored.
That's why it is nice to see the person have direct experience. I agree that not everyone can be an expert in everything (except yours truly, natch) but I suspect the overriding issue of the next administration will be overseas. If that's the biggest area then I prefer a candidate who has shown potential in that field.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Brendan
Saw this on RS:
Cruxlux
I know literally nothing about it beyond what the (obviously advertisement) thread says. Still I thought I'd point it out in case it is useful for the site.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Thanks, I made a diary to test it out (nt)
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
I'm curious to see what you think. (n/t)
Ron Paul
His problem is that he still hasn't distanced himself enough from some of the racists that support him. He also hasn't fully fleshed-out his plan for transitioning from the status quo towards his view of the country.
I'd like to see Chuck Hagel as his VP. If not him, perhaps another libertarian/federalist Republican like Jeff Flake or Fred Thompson.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...