Keep the Electoral College
Tlaloc argues quite convincingly that our current method of electing a President is flawed in at least two major respects: first, it values voters disproportionately, and second, it essentially disenfranchises voters who vote for the losing candidate within their state. I think that there are two reasonable counters to this argument:
First, Voters control the value of their own vote because they can move between states and there is no waiting period for "state citizenship" or anything like that, and because they can vote for the presumptive winning candidate if it bothers them that their vote for the losing candidate wouldn't "count" towards the result. If someone in CA feels like he is getting screwed by the EC, he can always move to Wyoming and vote for the Republican candidate. This isn't always a practical solution to the issues Tlaloc raises but it's available, so I thought it ought to at least be mentioned.
Second, the disproportionate problem is mitigated (if not outright resolved) by the on-the-ground realities of how votes within states determine the winner. If you measure the value of a vote in terms of what is paid to get it by politicians, in advertising dollars or campaign expenses or legislative promises, then it is not necessarily true that a voter in CA counts less than one in WY; a candidate might find it worthwhile to spend more per voter in CA to try to get all those electoral votes, and basically write off WY. Somewhat oddly, this also addresses the disenfrachisement problem because a voter backing a candidate in a losing state does have influence through his vote, or even just through expressing his opinion in a poll -- his support can help convince candidates to devote more time and money to that state, which will make his vote more influential as described above.
There are a few arguments in favor of the EC that I think are less convincing than those advanced by Tlaloc; I want to just briefly mention them too: (1) The EC is traditional. Well, so what? After 200+ years of trial and error shouldn't we be able to improve the system? (2) The EC is federalist Why? The Senate already protects the interests of smaller states, it's not clear to me that the Presidential election should try to do so as well. (3) The EC forces politicians to garner widespread support. In practice, the support within just a handful of key "swing states" is all that matters -- the rest of the country is polarized enough along partisan lines that there is no real need for a Republican to campaign in a traditionally red state or a Democrat in a strongly blue state. So we get a national obsession with Ohio and Florida, and the issues that matter to those particular states.
There are three good reasons that I see to keep the EC:
** Some disproportionate influence is good. If candidates only had to sway the largest demographic in the country then that's what they'd do. By breaking it down by states campaigns are forced to court sub-groups of voters to try to get an edge in that state, and thus they respond to the particular demographics and issues of concern within each region. This means (in theory) that a President will be concerned with many different groups of Americans rather than just the largest group nationally.
** The EC encourages voting. In a national election with polls showing a 2% lead for the other candidate, you know your guy is going to lose by about 6 million votes and yours is useless. Within a given state, that same 2% lead is a much smaller number of votes. Tlaloc mentioned that if the EC concept is so great why don't we use it within states? Well, maybe we should -- a 2% lead within a county is smaller still. This compromise would simultaneously make the election more representative of the popular vote and make each individual vote more meaningful.
** The lopsided EC victories convey legitimacy. Races that are close nationally often result in large EC margins of victory due to the all-or-nothing nature of the vote within each state. I think this is actually useful in smoothing over partisan rancor post-election, as voters are more easily able to accept the results as definitive. I have to admit that when this goes wrong -- when the EC hangs on a few thousand votes within a particular state -- there is certainly lingering bitterness from the losing side.
Something that deserves its own diary: the way the EC treats third parties, and whether this is good or bad. Anyone with a particular interest in that topic should toss something up for discussion.
- Brendan's diary
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Comments :
Re: your 3 good reasons
To me, #1 is a really good reason--might be enough to tip it for me, in fact. I still haven't made up my mind on this. (I find the third reason to be much less convincing--I say, let them earn their legitimacy.)
:)
Regarding legitimacy,
maybe this one is more convincing in the context of a three-way race, like in 1992: Clinton got 43%, Bush 37%, Perot 19%, but the electoral votes were 370-168-0. Of course, come to think of it, it's not like Republicans viewed the convincing EC win as a mandate, instead there were widespread claims that Perot played spoiler and Clinton faced strong opposition to his agenda, particularly after 1994.
As an aside, here's a nifty graphic and table
widget that lets you see the outcome of past Presidential elections -- kind of cool.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Thanks.
Still not convinced. If Perot got 1 in 5 people to vote for him, there was a reason, and for it to translate into 0 on the scorecard seems off, to me.
Not that I had any affection for the guy.
Nice, Brendan.
I'll make some replies during lunch.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Thanks -- I hope you don't mind, I retitled your diary
to make it more descriptive of your stance. Feel free to change it if you want.
Mine is sort of a devil's advocate attempt -- really, I thought your post was pretty convincing. But there's plenty of room for debate, and not necessarily along partisan lines either; I think we picked a good topic, now that I've looked into it a bit more.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
No that's fine (the renaming)
but you have taken a stand against my arguments and so I must now crush you.
Im in ur websitez, squishinz ur hed
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
The good of disproportionate influence
An example of this is the election of 1888. In that election Grover Cleveland ran a campaign that focused exclusively on the South (which at the time was the big population center).
Here's the election map result (click for large version)
Cleveland took the whole south, and won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote and thus the election.
This supports the idea of the current system discouraging a extreme focus on one region at the expense of the others.
the counterargument
Here's the key as I see it- this argument is strongest when you have a society that is very strongly weighted in one cultural, ethnic, or racial direction. It become significantly weaker as the society become more multipolar in terms of identity politics because it is hard to appeal to any one subset of citizens and have that subset represent enough of the voters to win.
For example Grover Cleveland's America was very different than the modern America. Notice that at the time there were essentially only two regions; North and South. The West was nowhere near established yet. Consequently a strategy to take the South at the expense of the North is viable. Today a strategy to take the South and maybe some of the Midwest at the expense of the North East, South West, and North West is much less tenable. Similarly in Grover Cleveland's day Whites were by far the most powerful ethnic group. Blacks were technically freed two decades earlier but often ran into serious opposition when trying to exercise rights to vote.
in fact the previous contested election of 1876 was settled by a compromise specifically predicated on leveraging whites against blacks:
Today there is no one race with such a super majority. Whites are still powerful, but a politician who campaigns on a platform of appeasing one race at the expense of all or most others... well just go ask Tom Tancredo how his presidential campaign is going.
In other words I think in the 19th century an argument in favor of a degree of disproportionate representation was well founded. Today due to the huge demographic changes I think it has become archaic.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
More on disproportionate influence
Tancredo's tactics probably turn off more white voters than they gain. I agree, today it is more difficult for a candidate, even in a popular election, to win by playing to the majority race. Still, in a popular election the approximately 6-4 GOP edge
among the 77% of white voters already gives them a 45%-32% edge among total voters. Since non-white voters aren't evenly distributed
throughout the US, in a popular election the GOP wouldn't have to pay much attention to the concerns of non-white voters.
One problem with my argument, I guess, is that the edge Democrats have with non-white voters hasn't necessarily translated into electoral college points in states where non-white voters make up a significant fraction of the population since Clinton. Hopefully that will change in 2008 =)
It's not just race, of course -- any demographic that is concentrated in a particular state is arguably able to exercise a bit more influence under the EC than they otherwise could. For example, gays in coastal states, or Mormons in Utah, or farmers in Iowa, or retirees in Florida, or whatever, can in theory get their issues noticed because candidates want their state electoral votes.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Third parties
That would be good to cover too. The EC definitely discourages thrid parties but there are arguments for and against that being a good thing.
Rachel?
PF?
Ender?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Seems to me the libertarians ought to have an opinion
on this issue ;-)
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
When I want the libertarians to have an opinion
I'll fianance it with a low interest adjustable rate loan.
:P
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Brendan....
I haven't thought too much about 3rd parties being disinfranchised, but yeah, it sucks ;-).
Your post about Perot perfectly makes the point. He's basically threw his money down a rat hole...20% of the popular vote yet I received the same # of electoral votes that he did.
Our only hope is to "infect" the other parties. Go Ron Paul!
Third parties and the EC
(You know, this whole EC topic was last on my list of things to debate, but I'll take a stab at the third party issue. If this ends up being diary worthy, let me know or Brendan can use his awesome editor powers to transform it.)
It's tough for a third party to make much headway at all in our modern political system. Just glancing over the election results for citizens/voters who are still living, using 1936 as an arbitrary start point (and using Brendan's very cool link above) it seems that there were only three elections where a third party candidate had any showing in the popular vote:
Wallace in 1968 with 9.9 million / 13.53%
Anderson in 1980 with 5.7 million / 6.61%
Perot in 1992 with 19.7 million / 18.91%
Nader, in the infamous 2000 election, only garnered 2.8 million / 2.73% of the vote.
Given that performance in the popular vote category, I would posit that the existence / nonexistence of the EC has no real bearing upon the success of a third party in our system. I very much doubt that the average voter thinks much about the EC when considering whom to vote for. I would also say that the candidates themselves do not base their decisions to run upon the existence of the EC process. And on those occasions where reasonably popular third party candidates arose (Wallace, Perot) I would say their popularity with the voting public had nothing to do with the existence of our EC process.
So, while one might argue that in some philosophical sense that the EC limits third parties, I think history shows that third parties are limited by much more practical and pragmatic factors, such as the entrenched two-party system.
"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire." --R. Heinlein
Certainly diary worthy
but I'll take a few shots at it here, which you can either ignore or incorporate into the diary version =P
Perot's 8% in 1996 seems worth noting to me; if you add it to Dole's 41% they tie Clinton at 49%. I realize without Perot many of those votes would have gone Dem, but it did keep Clinton under 50% again.
A more substantive comment: isn't it entirely possible that the entrenchment of the two-party system is strongly aided by the EC? I don't see how you can definitely say without abolishing the EC and finding out. I completely agree with you that the EC doesn't matter to the vanity run or single issue third party candidates, but how many serious contenders don't throw their hat in the ring because the deck is stacked? It's not just about winning the election, after all, it's about getting respect and building up for future elections, and zero electoral votes doesn't help make the case.
I wish Bloomberg had decided to run as an independent, that would have been interesting...
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
If the EC was the cause of the two party system
Wouldn't you expect to see a much stronger third party presence in congress and state legislatures where the EC is not a factor?
I would expect to see more
third party officeholders than there are recent third party presidents, anyway =P
I don't know how to evaluate "much stronger" but there are a fair number of third party candidates elected to local office -- the Greens have a bunch
of City Council and the like, for example. Wikipedia says two in the Senate
, Lieberman and Sanders, and none in the House -- you'd think a third party could grab a House seat or two, I agree.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
City Council elections are often very different
There are often multiple winners in races for City Council. I think that is a big distinction between city council votes and the many winner-take-all races. I think it is that which actually damages the 3rd party chances much more.
If congressional districts were merged (in larger states anyways) where the top 5 vote getters go to congress, I think you'd see a lot more third party candidates winning.
good point (nt)
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
It's a fair cop
but on the other hand consider this-
so you go to all the trouble to build a third party only to get to a presidential election and find out it is impossible for you to make any showing. I mean if Perot had gotten 20% of the EVs don't you think that would have motivated people to think 3rd parties were viable and could eventually reach the presidency?
I think that the nature of the EC makes the failure of 3rd parties a self fulfilling prophecy. And even if that isn't the case shouldn't we remove a severe roadblock from their path before it does actually hinder them significantly?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Converted to a diary
Here
"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire." --R. Heinlein
Some support
Here's a couple wiki maps from the 2004 campaign:
Hands represent a visit by a presidential candidate. Dollar signs represent spending by a presidential candidate. It's pretty clear that a few key states recieve virtually all the attention (hello, Florida!).
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Iowa has way too much influence for such a small state
They set the tone for the primaries and suck up a lot of spending and attention during the general because they're sort of a swing state. Ditto NH to a lesser degree.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
What amazes me is look at CA, TX, and NY
Those three states are by far the most heavily populated and yet how many presidential visits did they get? All three combined got about the same as Oregon did.
Being a Rep in Ca or a dem in Tx must completely suck.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
I Used to Agree.
Until you see the cost of getting your message out in Iowa vs. CA/TX/NY you'll notice that those smaller states tend to bring out more grassroots, engaged people and television advertising is way cheaper. If they were to aim for the big-market states then money would be much more of an influence now than before. Also, only name recognition would matter more.
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