Is the Clinton Machine Sinking?
Howard Fineman thinks so... not that his perception should be taken with anymore than a grain of salt!
Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner.
And it looks like her "Firewall" in NH needs more Phos-Chek as new polls are showing her lead slip:
Barack Obama has come from behind to turn the Democratic presidential race in New Hampshire into a toss-up, according to a new Monitor opinion poll. The results - which show Obama with a one-point edge over Hillary Clinton - mirror other polls released this week, indicating that Clinton's once-imposing lead has evaporated in the run-up to New Hampshire's Jan. 8 primary.
The poll suggests that the Democratic race could hinge on the turnout of undeclared voters, who aren't registered with either political party. Much of Obama's backing comes from undeclared voters, while registered Democrats make up the bulk of Clinton's support. In New Hampshire, undeclared voters can vote in either party primary, giving them sway in both contests.
"The more undeclared voters that decide to vote in the Democratic primary, the better chance Obama wins," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, the Maryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitor on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "What Hillary Clinton has to hope is that more of the established Democrats come out to vote."
I would caution everyone to be careful in their prognostications. How many times in the last 10 years have polls and soothsayers been completely wrong? Too many! Although local polls tend to be more accurate, the fact is, they're often driven and participated in by small groups of people who are looking to sway opinion one way or the other. Another fact is most voters aren't the least bit interested in telling you how they are going to vote and for whom!
There's still 17 days sans Christmas and New Years day for the candidates campaigns on the ground to sway voters... That's a long time considering some people's minds can change in the course of a 3 hour call-in radio talk show!
- Steven Foley's diary
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Comments :
Good news in NH
If Obama wins the first few primaries and the press starts talking about him as the "front runner" then the national polls will reflect that pretty quickly.
You're right that there's a lot of time left, but Clinton needs to do something dramatic to stop her support from continuing to slip away. I don't know what that would be, though -- her campaign's attempts to attack Obama have mostly backfired.
(Another youtube video that could help Obama -- a funny bit from the debate
yesterday)
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
I almost posted that one...
...in the OP but it's been getting a lot of play!!!
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Gotcha... I'm always late to the video fun
Youtube has really changed campaigning, hasn't it?
Wish I had sound at work.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
It really has...
...for activists, would-be pundits, and political junkies like us -- we fail to adapt at our own peril!
--she basically explains the reason for the switch had to do with the negative campaigning she was seeing from the Clinton campaign
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Ah, thanks (nt)
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
It was a good come back from Obama
I know we shouldn't form political opinions based on charisma or quips but it seems that ship has sailed. :)
Clinton is definitely having issues, and Obama is trying hard to make it a real challenge. I suspect some of the institutional mechanisms will probably make it hard for him. Of the two of them I'd probably prefer Obama.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Her ship is sinking because
she is using 'W' style campaign tactics.
First the presumptious winner meme.
Then these whisper campaigns.
The Clintons are so '90's.
Obama puts people at ease and is smart as lightening.
What would be a better ticket that Obama/Biden? There aint one.
It is the economy, stupid.
Well...
you mean besides a Thompson:
/Steele
/Santorum
/Watts
/Sanford or
/Romney... ticket!!! ;0)
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777