Weekend (Primary/Caucus) Open Thread

Happy Weekend! What are your final predictions?

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mine are

Nevada Rep:

Romney-45
McCain-22
Huckabee-12
Paul-8
Thompson-7
Giuliani-6

SC Rep:

Huckabee-30
McCain-26
Romney-16
Thompson-14
Paul-9
Giuliani-5

Nevada Dem:

Clinton 48
Obama 39
Edwards 13

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Mostly agree

Except I think it'll be closer.

qui tacet consentire

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looks like Romney won NV

from CNN entrance polls, and Paul a strong 2nd.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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woo-hoo!

Funny, Paul's team in NV was actually confident about contending for the state because they claimed they were going to win Las Vegas. Looks like they were right.

This may help the MLK Jr. Money bomb.

I want him in the race as long as possible.

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Really? Paul?

Was that expected? I hadn't kept up on any of the polling in NV sine Romney was the only first tier working the state.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Yes. They were optimistic

He's holding second at 16% as of right now.

check it out

He's got the hookers and gamblers in his pocket. :)

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not sure about expected

but some people were pointing to a strong Paul showing because he is the only one other than Romney who spent ok money campaigning in NV. So it's not too surprising but still...

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Will Mitt adopt

Ron Paul's rhetoric? The same way that he latched onto the change meme for political benefit?

It is the economy, stupid.

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it looks like all markings of a forced fraud in NV

on the Democratic side. The culinary union is in effect forcing their membership to vote for Obama considering the mostly poor and latino workers who overwhelmingly support Hillary in polls, are told to support their union and vote for Obama. Many of them will never be sure if they could vote for Hillary without repercussions.

We'll see the results. But if Obama wins on the strength of those few Las Vegas precincts, it will be a joke.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Source please

Because this has been mentioned before but it was an obvious smear perpetrated by Clinton supporters; see here , for example.

Anyway unions always try to convince their membership to vote for the candidate the union supports. There is nothing illegal about that as long as nobody is threatened. Hillary has the support of the teachers union, I'm sure Obama supporters could dig up stories of teachers worried about going against the union.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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The caucus looks like fun

They are showing it live on CNN. How fun that people are excited to participate. I love it.

They have their drawbacks, but it brings people together face to face.

I learned that the state pays for a primary and the DNC pays for the caucus. The original intent of caucus was to meet like minded and build stronger democratic coalitions in your neighborhood.

I can't wait to go to mine, especially since I am not shy and have immense power of persuasion.

(I am trying to keep my expectations, oh never mind, my hopes are high)

It is the economy, stupid.

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source?

my own eyes and ears :) It's self evident what the dynamics are in those 9 Strip caucuses.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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oh please....

I will look forward to seeing this as tomorrow big headline, brought to you by the Clinton camp and Ender.

If Hillary hadn't lost her court case to oppose the strip caucus, before she was for it ten months ago, when she was sure she would win their support we wouldn't be hearing this whining from Bill.

It is the economy, stupid.

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Entrance polls show Hillary will win by 10%

go to CNN entrance polls - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NVDEM

Good job Hillary.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Ender the proud Democrat!

Hahahahaha! Welcome to the big tent.

It is the economy, stupid.

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hahaha

I am just looking forward to the crying on dkos :) Hillary will win by a landslide here, and then win in SC.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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You are a mean person.

and a sadist, looking forward to enjoying other people's suffering. Shameful.

It is the economy, stupid.

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the anti-Hillary people have been the most

hateful I've ever seen. It's only good that they get what they deserve.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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You mean the Republicans?

I know what you mean.

I got utterly sick of hearing about how Bill Clinton got oral sex from Monica Lewinsky in the oval office and then lied about if for 258 days in a row.

I also got sick of WhiteWater Gate and the underground movement promoting Clinton as a murderer.

I agree Republicans are mean.

It is the economy, stupid.

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There's been plenty of Anti-Hillary fire from the left

and a lot of it has been deplorable. I have no love for the woman and yet I've found myself defending her a lot.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Same here

Obama's biggest liabilities are some of his supporters.

qui tacet consentire

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Which is why the worst

thing the anti-Clintonista's can do is rag on her. It generates sympathy and is counter productive to their cause, even from hard care anarchists!

It is the economy, stupid.

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Agreed.

By all means go after her policies, she has plenty of weaknesses there. Just lay off the personal attacks (naturally I'd like various Clinton backers to lay off as well, mostly though they seem sabotaged by their own ineptitude, hard to feel sorry for Obama when the attempts to slime him are so shoddy).

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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no comment

It is the economy, stupid.

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sorry looks like Hillary by a lot more...

more like 15%+ look at MSNBC as well

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225994

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Actual results

Show her with a 6-point lead with 78% reporting.

What's really amazing is how Edwards tanked.

And I see Paul is in second. And Rudy has another rousing victory over Duncan Hunter.

qui tacet consentire

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it's tough to predict final percentages in a caucus

when people can switch from non-viable candidates... Sounds like most Edwards supporters probably switched to Obama.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Personally

I think Edwards should have dropped out by now. Seem pretty clear that the issue is Obama vs. Hillary. John should retire from the field.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Yeah

As much as I like Edwards (well, rather as much as I don't not like him) after a 4% showing, he needs to throw in the towel and endorse Obama.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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different stories on SC exit polls

Fox News is saying that Romney could be running a strong 3rd instead of being close to Fred. Also it's not as clear that McCain is winning. It might be a pretty close race there. We'll see soon.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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What about Duncan?

But Duncan Hunter dropped out! That's the real news!

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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heh yeah :) huge news!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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That's bad news for Rudy

Who is he going to beat now?

qui tacet consentire

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I'm going to go ahead and say "ouch"

for Guiliani

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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If you are going to say something for Guilliani

It needs to include "9/11"

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Is this "dogpile on the fascist" day? -nt.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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SC Exit Polls

Something very interesting to look at:

Voters who self-describe as "very conservative":

Huck: 38%
Thompson: 21%
McCain: 19%
Romney: 17%

I keep saying that the meaning of "conservative" is changing.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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I think these days

it really breaks down by region and sometimes even by state :) SC has a lot of pro-life evangelicals. Same as Iowa. They went all in for Huck's religious conservative message.

In Michigan the most conservative voters voted for Mitt Romney. I think it might be the same in Florida.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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That's exactly what I'm saying

That's just my point.

"Conservative" means something different in the deep south as compared to New England or the Mountain West.

To an extent "liberal" has a changing definition depending on where you go, but I think the word has a more solid meaning than does "conservative".

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Yes. Let me taste your tears!

Redstate is saying it is all over for Thompson.

I have only this to say:

Scott Tenorman: No, wait! Waaiittt!! Oh, my God, Oh, my Gaawwwd!!
[buries his face on the table]
Cartman: [walks over to Scott's end of the table] Yes! Yesss! Oh, let me taste your tears, Scott!
[starts licking Scott's tears off his face]
Cartman: Mm, your tears are so yummy and sweet!
Kyle: Dude, I think it might be best for us to never piss Cartman off again.
Stan: Good call.
Cartman: Oh, the tears of unfathomable sadness! My-yummy!
[licks the tears off the table and off Scott's face]
Cartman: Mm-yummy, you guys!

(Best episode ever)
(I don;t have any rancor towards Thompson himself, it was just the absurdly ridiculous cheerleading on RS that annoyed me. I suppose I should expect it, I mean these people fool themselves on every issue, but damn it handicapping political races is the one thing they are supposed to do well)

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Since when?

handicapping political races is the one thing they are supposed to do well

I participated in their 2006 pool. I did well, as did all the other liberals or moderates, while the front-pagers and hard-core posters generally did terribly with some exceptions (Adam C, I think, for example). Bloggers mostly talk themselves into whatever they want to believe, I think -- myself included.

Regarding Thompson, he got a lot of positive publicity from Fox early on too; tonight they cut away from him in the middle of his speech, saying something about trouble with a mic (but the other networks were still carrying it). Ouch.

I was expecting him to withdraw and support McCain, but maybe he wanted to wait and see how he did. Beating Romney is a nice consolation prize, anyway.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Yeah, 2006 wasn't a good year for them

predictions wise. Maybe it's been a steady degradation.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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The left blogs are devouring themselves

over the Nevada results: Clinton wins with 5% over Obama, Obama wins the delegate count 13 to 12. The same people who raged against Bush losing the popular vote in 2000 to Gore are suddenly advocates for the caucus system of disproportionate representation. The Clinton supporters are calling the Obama 'victory' pathetically cynical; the Obama supporters are calling the Clinton reaction sour grapes; the Edwards supporters are outside the corner grocery drinking heavily from an unmarked bottle in a paper bag, and we've got the French Open on TV, avoiding the punditry entirely.

I can't wait for this whole process to end.

Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

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heh

1 delegate one way or another is not going to matter. Nor does +/- 5% in a state with only 25 pledged delegates. It's all about the spin...

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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liberals are delicious

It's a noisy conversation.

For the record the left has been bashing democrats for a while now. Mention Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid and you will get a rabid reaction.

It's not exclusive to the left. The Republicans are also howling at the moon over their crop of candidates.

You fight with the system you've got and not with the system you wish you had.

I think I'll join the brown bag club, find a soap box and start shouting from the street corners! That'll show em.

It is the economy, stupid.

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I can't wait for Hillary to be the nominee

and for dkos to be full of diaries of "I will never vote for Hillary". And then after that I can't wait for Hillary to lose to the republican nominee and a lot of crying :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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oopsie

It is the economy, stupid.

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I'll be voting

for McCain in that case. :)

I am not interested in reliving the 90's, and having the Clinton's, especially Bill, suck the life out of the Democratic party... again!

It is the economy, stupid.

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yeah right

there is no way you will vote for McCain :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Wanna bet!

I don't appreciate Bill Clinton and his ugly campaign that is dividing the Democratic party. It shows a lack of character, and a lack of respect for the progressive cause that goes beyond the pale. And for him to pretend like he is innocent is the very definition of parsing the meaning of the word is.

If I have to fight a president for my values, I don't want it to be a democrat.

I am not interested in a power hungary Bill Clinton pretending that his wife is in charge, while purposefully not rising above the issue of race, and pretending like he doesn't know about swiftboating robo calls sponsored in support of his wife. I had enough of that with Bush.

It is the economy, stupid.

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You might want to look at McCain's freinds before you

write off any Democrat:

"Nearly 24 years after voting against creating a holiday honoring Martin Luther King, John McCain is spending today at the inauguration of Alabama Governor Bob Riley who is a member of an organization that has been criticized for excluding African Americans. The "Grand Master" of the Grand Lodge of Alabama admits he knows of no African American members among the groups 30,000 plus membership. [AP, 9/30/2006] [...]

In past efforts to pander to a far right base that doesn’t trust him, McCain campaigned in Alabama for George Wallace Jr., a popular speaker at a white supremacist hate group, continues to employ a strategist who denounced the creation of a Federal holiday honoring Dr. King as "vicious" and "profane," and even hired the man responsible for the racist ads against Harold Ford in the Senate race in Tennessee in 2006.

Bob Riley is a Mason; a member of the Grand Lodge of Alabama. So far so good. No big deal. Lots of well-known people are Masons. But, when we learned and then exposed on our former morning drive radio talk show that Governor Bob Riley's Grand Masonic Lodge discriminates against African Americans, by formal resolution that they will not allow a black man to become a member we knew that his affiliation ­ because he is the governor and wants to be the governor for four more years ­ was and is 100% wrong."

(Incidentally, Russ and Dee Fine, two conservatives who have a radio show in Birmingham, publicized this heavily in the fall of 2006, and were then fired in the middle of their show shortly thereafter.)"

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You don't even need to go that far

never mind loose or foggy associations and innuendos, McCain is simply unsavory. His total view just makes me grind my teeth.

I don't like him at all. His tough guy views on war, peace and foreign policy are simply a non starter with me as are his paternalistic notions of "American Greatness" in the context of it all.

Anyone who talks about wanting to take control and use the oval office to make America great again should be severely questioned.

People who talk about making America great and safe from danger are usually for measures that do just the opposite. And why? Because they don't truly know or cafre to appreciate how complex the world is and how it got the way it is...for better or worse.

Their rough estimations of what's really going on coupled with their arrogance in the face of the limits of singular human wisdom on such a monolithic, worldwide scale makes for a dangerous brew.

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Yes, that's just what we need

Yay! Another Conservative White Male Christian appointing 2+ more Supreme Court nominees and keeping us in Iraq for "a hundred years"

Reminds me of the folks who voted for Nader because there was "no difference between Gore and Bush."

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true enough

but I am tired of tiptoeing around the fact that Bill Clinton is Hillary's Karl Rove, dividing the democrats for self serving gain. Blah.

(At least with McCain you know what you are buying. And he spoke out in front of God and everybody about Media Consolidation, while Hillary was courting Rupert Murdoch.)

Who can be sure with the Clintons. It is less the substance, (although partly that) than it is their campaign style that irks me beyond belief.

OH...... but it's for the 'greater good', you say. Super. I feel better now. if we call candidate X a black muslim cocaine user and stir racial tensions, all for the 'greater good'. Blah.

(I still love you knocienz and value your insights)

It is the economy, stupid.

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Your pushing a mountain

You can get a few million voters and they can push that mountain (political hackery) a few feet.

Yes, a lot of the Hillary machine is cut-throat. I have issues with a lot of Obama supporters as well. I have problems with both candidates as well. But in the end, the country as been pushed WAY too far in the last 8 years and pushing it in Hillary's direction or Obama's direction, while not the vector *I* would choose is still way better than pushing it McCain's way.
Oh, and plenty of Republicans have pushed the Black Muslim Manchurian candidate angle as well.

And no problem, I can tell when you are really upset.

Here, take it as a proof of Obama's reach-across-and-bringing-people-on-board philosophy. If you can't get Edwards and Hillary supporters, what are the chances of getting Republicans on board? ;-)

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I take your points

of trail by fire......

I am still not on board this dynasty thing, and the ugly machine thing, brought to you by the 'greatest living Democrat', who can't let go of power, Bill Clinton.

The biggest appeal of the 'other possibility' is getting rid of the DLC crowd and his appeal to the youth. The hopeful youth. Our next generation.

AS far as R's pushing the Manchurian candidate, well no surprise there, but for a Mr. Big Dog to stir the race pot for his wife's gain...... no. I reject that. It is anti-ethical to everything the dem party is supposed to stand for.

IN the general, I still hold that Obama, if he can make it through Bill Clinton has the best chance of winning the nomination.

So as far as pushing a mountain I say, why not try?

OH, and thanks for the counseling session ;)

It is the economy, stupid.

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oh..... and

on a last little partisan note.

Next fall when the Republicans trot out General David Patreous to challenge the Democrats on keeping troops in Iraq longer, for the big wedge issue, who will be more effective and have more credibility rebutting the General's talking points?

It is the economy, stupid.

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What's odd about that

is how little the frontrunners differ on substantial issues (especially when compared to the Republican field). In fact a lot of the bitterness and fighting over parsing quotes is a reflection of that: the candidate supporters/detractors have little else to go on. But yeah, when you consider the loathing people have for her, you'd think she was selling a completely different line than the other two.

Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

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So if they are all the same

differing little on substance, then don't you look to their character, who would be in their respective cabinets and appointees, the national tone that would be set, and the methods used to achieve goals? And if there is little difference on substance then it would seem obvious that it becomes a matter of personality.

It is the economy, stupid.

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Could be.

I don't know how other voters work, but there are certainly people who go that route. I'd imagine some people choose based on a notion of electability; maybe some choose based on regional affiliation (Southerners do that a lot); maybe some choose on something as superficial as age or looks.

I live in a state that 'doesn't matter', so I'm content to wait until a delegate is chosen and lend my happy-but-not-thrilled support to the winner.

Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

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Are we finally going to get rid of caucii?

They kind of suck and should probably have been done away with a long time ago. Seems like neither side is happy this year with how the primaries are going. I'd like to see that turn into actual reform with a single national primary day for all states and all caucii changed to direct elections.

For that matter, while I'm dreaming, I'd like the whole Electoral College done away with too.

EDIT: what Brendan said about one delegate not really mattering is true.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Abolish them all and go back to smoke-filled rooms! [nt]

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Huh?

The "smoke filled rooms" term usually refers to party conventions. I'm talking about replacing the various state caucus with direct elections.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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If the party machines chose the candidates...

...then we wouldn't need primaries *or* caucuses.

We could also go back to having the state legislatures choose the members of the Electoral College.

I'm simply not convinced that it's a good thing for the average citizen to be involved in the selection of the next president. Too much democracy is a bad thing.

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Ah.

I see, you weren't paraphrasing my suggestion, you were proposing an alternative.

I understand what you mean, now, although as you can probably guess I don't agree.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Unless we revamp the whole system

we really do need some way of narrowing party candidates down to one: otherwise whichever party has the most people running is at a disadvantage (assuming the country is split relatively evenly along party lines).

But caucuses/caucii suck. The primaries bother me a lot less, because people aren't hounded and bullied in a private voting booth. They're still hardly representative and lead to candidates that may be more partisan than not, but they're a huge step up from the cattle call.

Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

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I kind of like the cattle call

Why not reward those who are willing to participate actively and engagingly.

You also get a chance to actually meet and get to know folks of like mind and supposedly build a network.

You have to have the courage of your convictions.

But I can see how a boss 'knowing' who you supported could threaten you, but of course that seems so very Republican.

The party pays for the caucus. The State pays for the primary. That is another factor in states choosing the caucus.

It is the economy, stupid.

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Well, just a philosophical difference, I guess:

when voting (not primaries, but real voting) we have secret ballots in order to discourage bullying and worse: no one should face persecution for one's choices, otherwise it damages our ability to have real public participation in the process. The party nominations are different, though, and a lot of people would agree with you that, in that case, it's important to have people who are public in their endorsement (otherwise the vote could be swayed by people who aren't as active or invested in the party). I prefer secret ballots either way, but I can see why others wouldn't.

Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

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Well I am not

saying that caucus's are the best...... the likely aren't.

I am saying that with lots of participation they look like the most fun, because you feel like you are a part of something. Not just a person alone standing in a line waiting to push a button... which seems so impersonal.

It is the economy, stupid.

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After Gore was denied his Presidency in 2000

I've had no use for the Electoral Collage. It's just another place to manipulate results. ie - see dubya.

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Final Prediction

4 hours and 30 minutes

And the Patriots take it

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Politic is....

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it whether it exists or not, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.

..........~Ernest Benn

It is the economy, stupid.

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