SC Shameless Predictions Revisited
(promoted by Ender) OK, take a breath Swords Crossed. Back in August of last year, we put up a set of ten questions that we'd revisit after the first major primaries ended. With Florida pending for the Republicans and the Democrats poised for a Super Tuesday Blitz, the results look to be fairly surprising. So how'd we do? Let's see how far we've come...
Here are the questions, with some of the selected answers that were dead on, way off, and even the absurd :-) I've only selected a few; you guys can click through to the original if you want...
10 QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
1. How will the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina play out in each party? (Feel free to predict late entries and their impact as well).
"Without predicting individual primaries, Clinton will be the clear frontrunner amongst the Democratsafter the first group of primaries. Amongst the Republicans, it will be a virtual tie between Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani." - Skymutt Skymutt of course, the only one who foresaw the "Huckaboom." (Sorry, I had to say it).
"Obama will pull out a victory in Iowa, but the bigger story is Clinton placing third behind Edwards. Obama will then take New Hampshire, while Clinton takes Nevada. All eyes focus on South Carolina and Obama takes it in a squeaker...Fred! will fizzle, strangely because his continued delays to enter the race builds up his hype so high that even he can't perform. Fred will come across as weak in the fall debates, and will fall to third behind RG and Romney." - Me (Man, if NH went like I thought...)
"A blinding snowstorm hits Iowa on Caucus Day. Due to low turnout, Bill Richardson and Tom Tancredo pull shocking upsets.oth go on to win their nominations but both campaigns implode when it is discovered that Richardson entered the country illegally and Tancredo was once an Imperial Wizard. America groans. - Quorar" Funny Stuff.
Well, it looks like McCain or Romney for the Rs, unless Guiliani's bone-headed Florida strategy turns out to benefit him. But McCain? Really? Plus, the collapse of Hillary the Inevitable has confused the pundits once again.
3. Will the stock market and housing market be significantly/marginally better, significantly/marginally worsened, or about the same as today (August 15th, 2007)?
"The Stock Market will improve on-year. The housing plunge will be stopped artificially by continued Fed intervention and maybe a rate cut. I predict a 6% gain, boosted by holiday shopping, despite the sub-prime meltdown."- Me
"Given that the stock market is currently taking a beating I'd say it will be better than today." -Ender
We have not yet seen the bottom of the housing market crash nor its ripple effects. - Purpleface
S&P by YE 2007: UP 5.49%
Since Jan 1, 2008: DOWN 7.95%
(Topsy-Turvy aren't we?) . Plus with the artificial props the Fed and Congress are making to the market, Purpleface's words will most likely still ring true.
5. Care to make any predictions regarding any famous people being involved in serious crimes, or any people dying unexpectedly?
"Barry Bonds gets indicted." - skymutt - Not much more to say on that one.
"Enough Youtube vids are starting to break into mainstream culture that we're going to start with serious Youtube celebrity-izing..." -Pico Here ya go, pico...
If we can extend our predictions up until yesterday, I guess we can include Heath Ledger's Death and the completely accidental re-emergence of one of the Olson Twins .
7. Predict any major intentional/natural disasters that will impact the US, Europe, etc. Before January 15th, 2008. Try to be specific (health scare, infrastructure collapse, terrorist attack).
"Paris will be hit by a terrorist attack - 300+ dead. France will move closer to US on Foreign Policy..." - Ender
Well, France has decided to build some military bases again , maybe that counts?
Oh something is bound to happen. "When Mars is with Sirius, the Eagle who looks both ways lays waste to the land of Nachos, while the River by the Wall runs green." - Purpleface. You Nostradamus fans out there should have fun with that one.
SWORDS CROSSED, JANUARY 2008
10. Our beloved Swords Crossed will _____ over the next 5 months. Explain.
Increase in traffic by 50% after five months (consistent with current growth). Begin to get noticed by the big blogs, both left and right. Get a brief mention in some small paper doing a story about politics online (we can be pro-active about this). Host a political debate between the Republican and Democratic student groups for some college (ditto). - Brendan
Of course, I cannot verify this. However, the influx of our beloved Libertarians and Greens was pretty nice. We even got a few more conservative expats from RedState and other areas so Ender doesn't have to represent the entire ideology anymore.
Well, there you have it. Let's look forward to Super Tuesday, where we will yet again prove we're just as good as the pundits are at talking out of the side of our necks. It's crazy what people get paid to do in America. I guess that's what's makes us great.