SC Shameless Predictions Revisited
(promoted by Ender) OK, take a breath Swords Crossed. Back in August of last year, we put up a set of ten questions that we'd revisit after the first major primaries ended. With Florida pending for the Republicans and the Democrats poised for a Super Tuesday Blitz, the results look to be fairly surprising. So how'd we do? Let's see how far we've come...
Here are the questions, with some of the selected answers that were dead on, way off, and even the absurd :-) I've only selected a few; you guys can click through to the original if you want...
10 QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
POLITICS/ECONOMY:
1. How will the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina play out in each party? (Feel free to predict late entries and their impact as well).
"Without predicting individual primaries, Clinton will be the clear frontrunner amongst the Democratsafter the first group of primaries. Amongst the Republicans, it will be a virtual tie between Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani." - Skymutt Skymutt of course, the only one who foresaw the "Huckaboom." (Sorry, I had to say it).
"Obama will pull out a victory in Iowa, but the bigger story is Clinton placing third behind Edwards. Obama will then take New Hampshire, while Clinton takes Nevada. All eyes focus on South Carolina and Obama takes it in a squeaker...Fred! will fizzle, strangely because his continued delays to enter the race builds up his hype so high that even he can't perform. Fred will come across as weak in the fall debates, and will fall to third behind RG and Romney." - Me (Man, if NH went like I thought...)
"A blinding snowstorm hits Iowa on Caucus Day. Due to low turnout, Bill Richardson and Tom Tancredo pull shocking upsets.oth go on to win their nominations but both campaigns implode when it is discovered that Richardson entered the country illegally and Tancredo was once an Imperial Wizard. America groans. - Quorar" Funny Stuff.
Well, it looks like McCain or Romney for the Rs, unless Guiliani's bone-headed Florida strategy turns out to benefit him. But McCain? Really? Plus, the collapse of Hillary the Inevitable has confused the pundits once again.
3. Will the stock market and housing market be significantly/marginally better, significantly/marginally worsened, or about the same as today (August 15th, 2007)?
"The Stock Market will improve on-year. The housing plunge will be stopped artificially by continued Fed intervention and maybe a rate cut. I predict a 6% gain, boosted by holiday shopping, despite the sub-prime meltdown."- Me
"Given that the stock market is currently taking a beating I'd say it will be better than today." -Ender
We have not yet seen the bottom of the housing market crash nor its ripple effects. - Purpleface
S&P by YE 2007: UP 5.49%
Since Jan 1, 2008: DOWN 7.95%
(Topsy-Turvy aren't we?) . Plus with the artificial props the Fed and Congress are making to the market, Purpleface's words will most likely still ring true.
FAMOUS PEOPLE
5. Care to make any predictions regarding any famous people being involved in serious crimes, or any people dying unexpectedly?
"Barry Bonds gets indicted." - skymutt - Not much more to say on that one.
"Enough Youtube vids are starting to break into mainstream culture that we're going to start with serious Youtube celebrity-izing..." -Pico Here ya go, pico...
If we can extend our predictions up until yesterday, I guess we can include Heath Ledger's Death and the completely accidental re-emergence of one of the Olson Twins .
WORLD EVENTS
7. Predict any major intentional/natural disasters that will impact the US, Europe, etc. Before January 15th, 2008. Try to be specific (health scare, infrastructure collapse, terrorist attack).
"Paris will be hit by a terrorist attack - 300+ dead. France will move closer to US on Foreign Policy..." - Ender
Well, France has decided to build some military bases again
, maybe that counts?
Oh something is bound to happen. "When Mars is with Sirius, the Eagle who looks both ways lays waste to the land of Nachos, while the River by the Wall runs green." - Purpleface. You Nostradamus fans out there should have fun with that one.
SWORDS CROSSED, JANUARY 2008
10. Our beloved Swords Crossed will _____ over the next 5 months. Explain.
Increase in traffic by 50% after five months (consistent with current growth). Begin to get noticed by the big blogs, both left and right. Get a brief mention in some small paper doing a story about politics online (we can be pro-active about this). Host a political debate between the Republican and Democratic student groups for some college (ditto). - Brendan
Of course, I cannot verify this. However, the influx of our beloved Libertarians and Greens was pretty nice. We even got a few more conservative expats from RedState and other areas so Ender doesn't have to represent the entire ideology anymore.
Well, there you have it. Let's look forward to Super Tuesday, where we will yet again prove we're just as good as the pundits are at talking out of the side of our necks. It's crazy what people get paid to do in America. I guess that's what's makes us great.
- Charles J's blog
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Comments :
I did not predict the McCainaboom, however...
nor the Obamaboom, and I did not foresee the Giuliani fizzle.
I was pretty on target on the economics stuff, if I may say so-- S&P 500 is bouncing around near my target of 1280. Judging by the action in the futures at the moment, (-19.00 in the S&P's at the moment) it's not out of the realm of possibility that we may see 1280 tomorrow, in fact.
Countrywide (why o why didn't I short it???) is trading at $6 bucks a share, down from $28 bucks or so when we made the predictions. It will go to $2 if Bank of America pulls its takeover commitment. So it hasn't officially died like i predicted, but it's in the ICU with a round-the-clock watch. I will confess that I considered actually buying a few shares of Countrywide when it got under $5-- just for a trade... but then I remembered how I bought Worldcom just for a trade back a couple of years ago when it was dropping like a stone down around $2 I think-- and then the news came out about the massive accounting fraud. Doh! I also bought Enron on the Dynegy takeover rumor, and owned it when Dynegy basicaly said "thanks but no thanks", which ended Enron as a stock for all intents and purposes. In addition, I have owned Exodus Communications and Calpine, two other companies that also went bankrupt. So, I have learned that if the market is trading a stock as if it is going to go to zero, it probably is indeed going to zero.
skymutt: accept no substitutes!
I think our predictive capabilities suck
But lets do some more :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I predict
that our next batch of predictions will also suck.
qui tacet consentire
hahaha indeed :) n/t
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I think it's time to predict who will be the ultimate
nominees, or if there will be brokered conventions. :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
The nominees are
Obama
McCain
and the VP selections are.....hmmm...talk about a shot in the dark
Obama / Powell?
McCain / that scary Alabama guy Quaoar keeps warning us about
Under this scenario, the winner is:
Obama
what a horror show... :)
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that it will be:
Hillary vs Romney
Hillary / Mark Warner (fmr Gov-VA)
vs
Romney / Huckabee (dumbass extraordinaire)
and
Romney will win.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Take note
My predictions have been most generally proven correct, 85% of the time, plus or minus a 100% margin of error for having the courage to make no predictions.
I'm only half stupid
My predictions have been 100% correct!
Unfortunately, due to a claim of states' secrets, I couldn't publish them. However, I do have a hand-written note concerning all of these occurrences locked up in a drawer somewhere... (mind the wet ink!)
I predict the Patriots will beat the Giants this weekend.
but I won't wager any money on it.
I like Brady, the team & even the cheating coach. I mean, I would like them less if the Niners were any good at all, but until they fire their owner and get another, I'm stuck watching other teams play the big game.
Unfortunately
I predict the same, even though I hate the Patriots, their QB (he went to Michigan for Zeus' sake!), and their coach with every fiber of my being.
NE by 14. If I had money, I'd take that bet at the tune of at least $100 (hint: $100 is a lot to me).
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
I wanted the Packers versus Patriots
but I will settle for a Patriots victory march.
Wouldn't it be perfect if they ran up the score with a few minutes left in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl? Let the hatred flow!
Are the Niners still using Smith at QB? I don't even know anyone on that team, besides Gore...
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
No one can say.
Erickson kept his job but was forced to fire most his staff. I'm not a huge Smith fan. I think Chris Hill looked better and he's the third string.
Smith is another one of those top 10 first round picks who aren't better than a second string quarterback.
I miss Bill Walsh & Eddie DeBartolo.
Don't get me started
Internal power struggles killed the 49ers (my team, btw). Back when Mariucci was coaching them, they were playoff contenders every year. He didn't rub the front office the right way, so they decided to bring in an idiot in Erickson and go into rebuilding mode.
They have the players to be a playoff team, but their coaching staff is the dregs of the NFL. They can do better.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
I'll tip a glass 'o suds to ya next Sunday's game (n/t)
This one came close
His strip club is in an even tie for second most visited in all of Second Life ;} Today, anyway.
Of course, he's not making enough money to cover expenses and probably overpays his staff. But he's having a blast.
*slaps forehead*
virtual strip clubs in SL.
I hate people so much right now.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
I know
It strikes me as incredibly comical too, but boys will be boys ;} And to give him credit, it's more the friendly, welcoming, family type atmosphere he and his SL partner have created there which keeps folks coming back. Which is kinda weird for a metal / vampire / demonic themed place, but hey, it works.
For the record, I have nothing to do with his club. I'm the SL equivalent of Paris Hilton.
Why
would you spend your "second" life as that bitch?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
haha
she is not :) She does a very good job as the coordinator of SC events for example.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Sigh
I should have known to clarify...
"Paris Hilton" as in independently wealthy, several homes, no job, lots of friends, decent connections, goes to all the right events, membership in exclusive groups (e.g. the "Beautiful Ladies Who Lunch Social Club" lmao), fabulously expensive wardrobe, picture in the paper, and, as Ender says, I am even politically active -- well, as active as one can get in a virtual world ;} I attend as many of the political events as I can, and I'm on the executive committee to write the constitution and bylaws for the Democratic Party group. For those who claim to be anti-authoritarian, they sure do seem to have a real need for rules and laws...but hey, I'm a helpful sort of girl, whatever it takes to get them moving. I'm also considering helping Jimbo Hoyer with the upcoming Netroots Nation stuff...but I might be too centrist for their tastes.
And I am of course way smarter than Paris, but that's not difficult ;}
I could use the Princess Di analogy, but that level of sweetness just doesn't work for me. But, I am a Princess of Syldavia. . . .
At some point this begins to cross over into officially insane territory, doesn't it?
The first step...
is admitting you have a problem.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Some predictions....
I survived the Bush Administration
Al Gore is overrated, I agree that he will endorse before
Super Tuesday and despite all the networks hyping it up like there is no tomorrow in their effort to elect Obama, most of America will do a collective yawn. Hillary will still win most of those states.
And like I predicted above, I think Romney will win before convention. Witness his movement in Rasmussen national poll
for example - he is already ahead of McCain nationally. People are taking notice.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
You are right...
Al Gore is overrated nationally.
But among Democrats.... especially those in California.... he is an icon.
America will do a collective yawn. Democrats, especially west-coast Democrats, will not.
I survived the Bush Administration
I don't think it will be enough
to make it close in CA.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
It's already close....
The polls prior to Saturday showed Hillary with a 47-35 lead over Obama in California.
I suspect he'll get a small SC bump and California will be somewhere areound 45-38 now.
With the wave of endorsements from key democrats, Kennedy clan today... and I predict Gore and others before next Tuesday... that will wittle down to a 4-5 point race.
...and remember... Democratic primaries are not "winner take all". Even if Hillary wins a narrow California vote, the delegate total coming out of the state would be something like 230 to 200.
Hillary had a 30-point lead in California just a month ago. Everything is trending away from her.
Will she hold on? Maybe..... but she was looking to take 350 of California's 430+ delegates just a few weeks back..... if she gets more than 230 or 240, she would be very fortunate now.
A big endorsement from Gore on the eve of the vote could be enough to swing California.... especially northern California and its high-concentration of environmentalists.
All the evidence you need to see that the Clinton campaign is beginning to panic is this:
All three Dem candidates agreed to NOT campaign in Florida after the DNC stripped them of their delegates. Hillary Clinton is now backing out of that promise and is actively campaigning in Florida.
It's dirty pool and it is desperate. But her campaign is willing to take the hit to their credibility and ethics in order to land ill-gotten delegates from Florida.
...oh... she'll couch it in language like "Floridians deserve to have their votes count" and might even lead a court fight.
But months ago... when she felt like the "inevitable" nominee of the party, she agreed to abide by the DNC's decision about Michigan and Florida.
She lied. She's breaking a promise. And it fits the narrative that she'll do or say anything to get elected... ethics be damned.
She's panicking. She might turn it around, though... because she has some VERY powerful friends. But every move she and her campaign have made the past week has made them look worse and worse.
Her husband has morphed into William Jefferson Atwater. She's become Hillary W. Bush. Rove would be proud.
Democrats aren't buying it anymore. Just watch.
I survived the Bush Administration
Behold the Power of Name Recognition
Obama was able to close the gap in the states in which he campaigned. I'm afraid that a large segment of voters will vote for who they recognize come February 5th. Obama's job in my opinion is to garner as many delegates as he can on next Tuesday, but I don't think he will have more than Clinton by the end of Tuesday. He does need to keep it close though. If only a few hundred delegates separate them by Tuesday's end, then Obama perhaps will have pulled off something significant.
If he inexplicably leads after Super Tuesday, not only will he make someone on Intrade pretty rich, but it may open the door for a brokered convention in the summer--along with the Republican one--unless of course they wrap their nomination up after Super Tuesday, which would be quite unexpected.
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186
Yes, but there's still time
With all the endorsements, with the passionate speeches, and with him now actively campaigning in the Super Tuesday states, I think Obama will raise his profile. I predict Hillary's leads in the large states slowly decrease between now and 2/5. I kind of feel like he will need an outright victory because if Hillary wins she solidifies the idea that she is the prohibitive favorite for the nomination and because she and Bill have a lot of behind-the-scenes clout with the folks who make up the superdelegate pool. Right now it looks like a long shot, but this primary has been all about momentum and at the moment that's helping Obama.
Florida will be interesting on the Republican side; if Romney beats McCain, it will be a close race. I think Huckabee needs to do well to stay in the top tier. Obviously it's do or die for Rudy, and all the polls say die -- his campaign is going to be remembered as one of the most disastrous in recent history.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Prediction
...or wishful thinking?
Obama-Richardson v. Romney-Bush (Jeb, that is)
Romney looks great, sounds great, and says exactly what everyone wants to hear in the debates and on the campaign trail, spends zillions of dollars on advertisements, and still gets crushed in the election, 58-42. Obama names Edwards as Attorney General, Bill Clinton as Ambassador to the U.N., Colin Powell as Sec. of State, and Al Gore in a new position which the media will immediately dub "Climate Change Czar." The rest of his cabinet also includes a couple of Republicans that I've never heard of but are apparently widely respected in their fields.
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
Make it so!
That would be pretty awesome.
Gates has been decent as Sec Def so far IMO.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Republican Presidental Tickets 101
There has to be a Bush or Dole on the ticket. There has been since '76.
I'd cry if Edwards was AG. His background isn't civil rights and the like. It's torts, IIRC.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...