Monday Open Thread
Last Bush State of Union: Unfinished business - this is a historic address to the Congress that might've broken the record for the most capitulations by an opposition party to an unpopular president.
We are one day away from the critical Florida Primary for the republicans where McCain and Romney are still statistically tied though with McCain showing slight momentum. Rudy Giuliani has fell off the Earth.
Happy Monday everyone!
Submitted by Ender on Mon, 2008-01-28 09:06
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Comments :
When will Rudy withdraw?
Wednesday or Thursday?
qui tacet consentire
I am of two minds about it
On the one hand I think he should withdraw after Florida, but on the other hand I worry that his supporters are more natural McCain supporters and would help McCain on Super Tuesday... Every little bit helps. So maybe it is better he stay in and lose convincingly on Super Tuesday while preventing McCain from blowing Romney out of water.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Why is Romney's strong point
supposed to be economic issues?
With a track record like this:
And there are more examples of Romney's business savvy here.
Romney must hold some sort of record for most companies forced into bankruptcy and workers laid off.
qui tacet consentire
wiki has a different story
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
It would seem
that his modus operandi is to buy some struggling company, bleed it like a vampire, lay everybody off and discard the carcass.
qui tacet consentire
hey, it's a good tactic
in plenty of cases with failing companies. Plenty of companies who fail, don't know how to do the hard things needed to survive. Others swoop in, cut the fat, make the company more profitable and sell it. Keeping the employees on until the bitter end is not a good in itself. Often it's just stupid.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Bain takes DDI public
taking investors' money and a couple years later it goes bankrupt.
Sounds more like fraud to me.
qui tacet consentire
What did you expect?
Yes, that passes for "successful businessman" these days.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
also nice governing record
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
The Salacious French Banking Scandal
Stay tuned for the unfolding drama of how the bank scandal turns. It's salicious. It's big. It is all they are talking about in french elite coffee shops.
The story of Societe Generale
There is speculation that a young French trader may have been resonsible for the huge downturn in the stock market last Monday, which prompted Ben Bernanke to lower interest rates, with a pre-emptive rate cut, last Tuesday.
The Largest Banking Scam in History
The bank is saying the trader Jérôme Kervie was acting alone.
Mr. Kervie's lawyers Elisabeth Meyer and Christian Charrière-Bournazel,
Was the bank trying to create a hole to hide the loses related leveraged sub-prime securities.......!!??
Did the young man's clever and non repititve huge trading holes and especially high market activity precipate the stock market drop.....!!??
Was the Fed snookered......!!??
Worse yet..... for those libertarian souls will this huge bank trading fraud be the impetutus for .......... the implementation of......... the dreaded R word, as in *shudder* regulations?
Stay tuned .......
I'm only half stupid
Halliburton 4Q profit rises while world Stock market falls
Halliburton's quarterly revenue rose 19 percent to $4.2 billion from $3.5 billion in the previous year, topping analysts' estimates of $4.1 billion.
While at the same time, Global stock markets are into their second day of hefty falls.
On Monday, European markets suffered their most severe falls since the attacks of 11 September 2001.
Hmmm, global markets are tanking but a US energy/services corporation with Darth Cheney connections is doing spectacularly. Hmmm, what could the connection be? I know I know this one....What is that connection?
I guess being a merchant of robber barrons & death is a fiscally good thing to do.
yes...
it's wrong for a company to do well financially. Sorry.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I didn't say that. I wondered how it got it's good connections
in a snarky way.
Someone has to be a Merchant of Death. We got rid of that nuciance of manufacturing jobs, we might as well let the US grasp Merchant of Deathism until Asia decides it wants that too. Mind you, I'm not blaming Asia here either.
I guess it's another case of Darth Derangement Syndrome. I'll as Wikipedia to add it to their ever growing list.
Sometimes it is
It all depends on how the company is making their money.
Halliburton does a needed job, but they get hired for those jobs because they have connections and are great rent seekers (all successful businesses are these days).
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
Oh, George
Pork is suddenly bad when the other party is in control. I'm sure that's just a coincidence, though. President Bush has just had a change of heart and realized that it's time to get tough on pork.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
The Senate votes today on the Protect America Act/FISA
bill before the Senate. The Protect America Act is set to sunset 2/2/08 & the usual sources are making the usual noises about the need for making FISA changes permanent:
"The Politico's Allen wrote: The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which governs surveillance of telephone calls and e-mail traffic of suspected terrorists, expires on Friday. After that, any monitoring that's currently authorized could continue, but no new surveillance could begin."
Besides the fact that that is patenetly false, other MSM has picked up that cannard an is now starting to run with it.
good move by Romney
Romney takes aim at McCain's connection to Kerry
No self-respecting conservative should vote for this guy. I am sorry but McCain is not a conservative. If you are a moderate and want to vote for McCain, I understand but that's about it.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Health care delays
I love arguments about how going to a universal single payer system will lead to delays in getting health care.
As if we don't have delays already with our current broken system.
My wife has been getting stomach cramps for a couple weeks now. She went to urgent care and they referred her to a specialist. Consulting the list of approved specialists (based on my work insurance) the soonest she can get seen is mid-march. That's with daily pain and the very real possibility that something is seriously wrong.
Now with a single payer system at the very least we'd have th option of looking further afield for a doctor who might have an opening sooner.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Primary wars
I got sucked in
.
On the plus side I've been on dKos so much over the weekend I got TU for the first time. Y'all better look out, I got troll ratings to burn!
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
yeah I saw you there
though I didn't uprate your Obama-supporting ass :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
An excellent diary Brendan
and I loved q's "pissing in a hurricane" metaphor too.
"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire." --R. Heinlein
Thanks, and ditto =) -nt-
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
I've been handing out TRs at a rapid clip
qui tacet consentire
I was thinking about the "experience" issue earlier today
and it kind of struck me- the issue isn't one of whether the candidates have experience with government, it is whether we have experience knowing them.
Why does this matter?
Well, as just one example, consider that the President of the United States has sole and exclusive control over the use of our 10,000 or so nuclear weapons. He or she can destroy the world and there are no "checks or balances" on that ability. (which really we might want to think about changing...)
Because of that and all the other power the President enjoys we need to have some sense of knowing the candidate. Obviously the primary and general election campaigns are an attempt to help us know the candidate. Unfortunately they have become so scripted and controlled that we only really learn something about the candidate when they go wrong. Listening to their stick speeches tells us nothing (recall that Bush campaigned *against* nation building and interventionism).
So we come back to experinece, which really means experience in high profile positions such that people get a feel for the candidate's nature.
And here's where i keep coming back to with Obama. On the national stage he's had three years as a senator. That's it. I don't know this guy from adam, and that scares the hell out of me.
It's perfectly reasonable to say you don;t like Hillary's positions a lot of the time (I don't like her positions a lot of the time myself). It's fine to say Edwards seems kind of poncy or high fallutin. But I think that we can all agree that neither of them is literally insane. Hillary may be ambitious and Edwards may be kind of slimy but neither is likely to arbitrarily turn the world into a cinder.
I can say that because Hillary has been high profile for the last two decades. Edwards has been pretty high profile for one.
Obama's been high profile for less than half that.
I don't know I can trust him with that kind of power. Can any of his supporters claim they really know the man?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
I know him as much as...
...I knew Bill Clinton in 1992.
Before the 1988 address at the Dem convention.... an address that was horribly boring and was being booed by the conventioneers.... I had no knowledge of Bill Clinton at all.
Did you know much about him before he began running for President in 1991? If you didn't live in Arkansas, the answer for 99.9% of us is NO.
The problem for Hillary... and this is a problem that is substantial for the General Election.... is that most Americans know her very well. And she has over 50% negative opinion ratings.
Americans know her.... and by and large, they dislike her.... she has virtually ZERO support among Republicans (not counting Ender ;-) ) and is the only Democrat running that has higher negativity rating than positive among independents.
She cannot win the General Election against any GOP candidate with a pulse. Indies hate her. You can't win without the indies.
So the question to me is.... do you want to go with the candidate you know, but that too many people hate? Or the one you know a little less, but who is much more genuine, honest, and likeable?
Let me put it to you another way.... imagine the following scenarios on Wednesday, November 4th, 2008. A citizen in another country picks up the newspaper and sees one of these headlines:
"Americans Elect John McCain as Next President"
non-American's reaction:
"U.S. Election Goes to Romney"
non-American's reaction:
"Hillary Clinton Wins American Election"
non-American's reaction:
"United States Elects Barack Obama"
non-American's reaction:
The words "President Obama" upgrade the perception of the United States around the world Immediately.
The biggest failing of the Bush administration is in our standing around the world. That gets repaired in a big way instantly the day Obama wins the presidency.
The Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton cycle does nothing but increase the cynicism that the rest of the world has towards us.
Since 1980, there has been at least a "Bush" or a "Clinton" on the ballot in every presidential race. That's not the America I want. We formed a new country 200+ years ago to get away from the idea of an aristrocratic or oligarchic ruling "elite".
Barack Obama winning the presidency literally does say that anyone in this country can be President.
It would be a profound and positive change in the history of this nation.
I survived the Bush Administration
Both Obama and Hillary are polling higher than any of
the Republican candidates.
With that in mind, I dispute your contention that Hillary CAN'T win. To the Contrary, even EDWARDS, who is currently the Democratic 3rd runner could beat ANY Republican candidate. Obama and Hillary would mop the floor.
I should rephrase.. you are correct...
Hillary CAN win..... because the GOP field is pathetic.
But she has a much smaller margin for error, since 48% of the country will not vote for her under any circumstances.
She literally has to get every vote that would consider her.
Negatives as high as hers are nationally are VERY hard to overcome..... especially since everyone already knows her so well and there's not much her campaign can do to change the national opinion of her.
I survived the Bush Administration
yes... let's vote for someone different
just because they are different... And because it would make US look better to other countries. Yes, it really is important to not vote on the issues but more in order to make others be less cynical about US. That's profound and positive.
That's the Obama candidacy in a nutshell... Just hope he doesn't screw us all with his change.
I haven't heard more crap with less substance for a long time. When "genuine, likable, and honest (?)" are the "issues" that prop up a complete unknown without any experience, we are in trouble.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
heh
It's the reason you likely voted for Bush in 2000. It certainly wasn't his "experience".
I survived the Bush Administration
Easy answer
Hillary and Obama, policy-wise, are about as identical as you can possibly get; Edwards is still only slightly to the left of either. There isn't much else to differentiate between them, so when making a decision, one has to take into account intangibles.
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...
I think there is more differences
than you think. Essentially in their approaches to problems.
I'm only half stupid
Bill Clinton
In 1991 I was a sophmore in high school. I was paying zero attention to presidential election much less presidential primaries.
As I've argued before the hatred of hillary is blown entirely out of proportion. notice that for someone supposedly so hated she is the leading candidate so far (Obama's big win in SC and big endorsements may have him contesting that in the near future).
How exactly is that possible if she is anywhere near as reviled as you claim?
That's great, but Obama isn't going to be president for one day. He'd be president for at least four years (barring something terrible happening). Do you honestly think you know him well enough to be sure he wouldn't do anything outrageous in four years? I don't think it's likely that he would, but I've never seen him in a position of significant power. I don't know if he has a hidden volatile temper that's just been kept quiet. I don't know if deep down he believes in some apocalyptic vision of the middle east.
I just don't know.
Now granted anyone could have an extremely deep seated neurosis. Anyone could be the guy the neighbors describe after the shooting as "such a nice quiet young man." But after several years of being in the limelight you at least winnow the chance *way* down.
I agree that the dynastic element is unfortunate and undesirable, but if a Clinton is the best person for the job (and I'm really not saying *this* Clinton is) I'm not going to turn them away just because of their family ties. Put it this way if your choice for dem nominee came down to Clinton vs Kucinich which would you pick?
electing the hobo down the street sends that same message, but there are much more important qualifications for president.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Reply
>90% of Republicans revile her
>50% of Independents revile her
She can be in a tight race in a Democratic primary race because neither of those two groups are in play.
Look... the GOP candidate will likely get 90% of the GOP vote. The Dem candidate will likely get 90% of the Dem vote. The winner among independents will be the next President, unless one or the other party has an extremely higher-than-usual turnout.
With the bridge-burning that the Clintons are doing with the African-Americans in the Democratic party, do you see Hillary getting a larger-than-usual Dem turnout in the general election?
If not... she would need to win over independents. And more of them hate her than like her.
Yes... she can win a Democratic nomination...... by getting 51% of Democrats to vote for her and give her delegates.
But in the general election, she's toast.... unless she can somehow have a complete image makeover that the independent voters will buy into.
I just don't see it.
I survived the Bush Administration
RCP Polls
The RCP poll averages back this up, actually. The only matchup the Democrats lose are McCain / Hillary and McCain / Edwards.
And the McCain / Hillary matchup is so tight that she loses only by a tenth of a percent.
Yet the McCain / Obama matchup is still tight; he wins, but only by 3/10ths of a percent.
Early days yet, and polls are not always reliable, but I stick with my original position (and with Prime's): nominating Hillary is a strategic risk and one that puts Democratic control of the Whitehouse in jeopardy. With Hillary, the Dem's run a bigger risk of loss than any other candidate.
"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire." --R. Heinlein
Yes indeed......
I wonder if they count Independents in their polls, who would likely swing to either McCain or Obama. Part of the reason strictly D or R polls aren't that reliable.
An interesting dynamic is the Ted Kennedy endorsement, that the Clinton's had been furiously courting. That Ted bucked the powers that be, he gives more cover to other Senators that are afraid not to endorse Hillary. IN that way this is a major coup for Obama. Plus he will be campaigning for Obama until super dooper Tuesday.
If nothing else the inner dynamics are fascinating.
The old lion, and the new cub join together to buck the entrenched political status quo.
Washington insiders must be abuzz with gossip. ;)
I'm only half stupid
Like I said...
Grossly exaggerated.
New Hampshire is a semi-open primary. Hillary won there. SC is an open primary and Hillary lost. Iowa and Nevada use a caucus system. Michigan was an open primary and Hillary won but it was a funky case.
In Nevada she got 33% of the I vote as compared to Obama's 47%. In SC, despite being whalloped in total she got 26% of independents compared with Obama's 42%. In fact in SC she got half as many Rep votes as Obama. In NH Clinton got 31% of I as opposed to 41% by Obama. In MI she got 37% of independents.
All numbers taken from CNN exit polls which can be found here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/
The numbers simply do not back up your claims of her being intensely hated. Yes, Obama does better with independents, but not enormously so.
Frankly, yes. So far in every primary the turn out has been phenomenal for Dems and much weaker for Reps. I find that it strains credulity to assume that this is entirely due to Obama's charm. Whether it is Hillary or Obama, or even Edwards it is a safe bet that there will be better than usual dem voting at the general.
That's because you keep projecting your personal feeling onto everyone else. That kind of thing makes it hard to get a grip on the actual situation :)
Look at the pollster.com trends:

Her favorables are higher than her unfavorables. That's just not possible if 90% of republicans hate her and 50% of independents hate her because you are living proof that at least some dems hate her too.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
OK...
"Hate" and "revile" are strong words...
Let's replace those words with:
90%+ of Republicans would never vote for Hillary Clinton under any circumstances.
50%+ of Independents would never vote for Hillary Clinton under any circumstances.
I don't think those numbers are a gross exaggeration. 9/10 of the Republicans I know can't imagine themselves ever voting for her.
I'm glad you are optimistic for Democrats... I really do want them to win.
But I think we're better off not giving the Republicans any edge in November.
Any objective analysis of Hillary Clinton would conclude that Hillary gives them an edge in many many ways.... from GOTV efforts to fundraising to oppo research to you name it.
A Hillary nomination would be a boon.... to the GOP. Personal feelings aside, I'm convinced of that.
I survived the Bush Administration
I still don't see
how your 90/50 split makes sense with the actual exit poll results.
Hillary has been getting a reasonable amount of independents especially given Obama's strengths.
Okay, that's fine, but keep in mind the reason why we distinguish between anecdotes and data. There's no way you know enough republicans for them to constitute anything close to a representational sample for statistical purposes of modeling the behavior of the national population of republicans.
I think we're better off with them winning as well, especially given the current GOP nominees. I suspect that barring a disasterous campaign by the dem nominee or a big event ala 9/11 that the dem will win.
I think it is incontrovertible that Hillary will help their fundraising. I disagree that she helps their opponent research because they have already dug up everything in that particular waste basket and basically failed to fatally wound her. That vein is tapped.
What your analysis here fails to do is to evaluate if/how Obama also gives them advantages, and of course he does. By being substantially more anti-war he gives them a lever to use (btw I personally agree with his position, but we are speaking here merely of advantages with the electorate, and I know my position is not the norm). Obviously he's black and there are still people in this country who regard that as significant (a similar argument can be made about sexists and Hillary, however 50% of the population is female only 12% is black). His name (both first and middle) is unfortunately easy for republican to associate with two enemies of the US. It's stupid and shallow but it works to a degree (ask yourself how well a politician named Hitler is going to do). Obama is better for opponent research than hillary, both because he's a fresh target and because he's a product of the Chicago political scene (one of the most corrupt political arenas in america).
And probaly most importantly we don't yet have reason to believe that Obama is a vigorous and effective campaigner. He's done pretty well this campaign, but given the situation I'd expect better. Ask yourself why he hasn't hammered Hillary on her vote for the Iraq war. He could have her by the throat on that issue alone, the base would eat it up. Why? I have no idea. Maybe he's just being nice to his fellow dem, but maybe he's just not up to the more brutal aspects of politics. The bipartisan-let's-all-work-together routine is nice, and I appreciate that he can do that, but it only works when the other side is willing to make some kind of good faith effort. When they aren't you need to be able fight. Can he fight? *shrug* I don't know.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Insane!
Honestly, I think this is a pretty lame argument. If you have worked with someone for even a year or two, you probably have a pretty good feel for whether or not they are a psycopath. Something tells me that Obama wouldn't be getting the endorsements he's getting, from other Senators who have worked closely with him, if he had some secret character flaw that might make him snap and destroy the world. And even if someone is a psycho, but able to hide it from his closest friends, family and coworkers for three years, then he's probably able to hide it for more years than that.
So, feel free to not vote for someone because you are afraid he might be insane, with zero evidence to back up that fear, but you aren't even close to convincing me!
We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki
Insane is an exaggeration
First- I don't suspect that Obama would really destroy the world, my point was to show just how much power we are entrusting to one person.
Second- consider what a screwed up bunch of megalomaniacal wannabe tyrants make up the Senate I'm not inclined to give their recommendations all that much weight. :P
You are presuming that a person's closest friends and family would rat them out. I find that unlikely personally. Instead it seems likely given human nature that the people who genuinely like him will rationalize or minimize any flaws. We all do that about the people we love. That's why it is best to have them in a position where we all get to see what they are made of, rather than relying on potentially prejudiced insider views.
Ask yourself this- what if Obama had a deeply held conviction that a particular reading of St. john's Revelation was correct. This reading requires there to be an apocalyptic battle in the middle east that paves the way for the second coming.
Now do you think you'd actually have any clues to that effect? This isn't something people are likely to volunteer, afterall. It's something that will be intensely personal to them, and yet could have unbelievably enormous repercussions on how they deal with the middle east.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
You can't Claim
to really know anyone. Look at how well everyone knew and loved George Bush. How'd that work out for the conservatives.
It's a matter of character. Do you trust their character.
I'm only half stupid
True in the extreme
There's always the possibility that my wife is a Russian spy or a serial killer. But I can say from spending a great deal of time observing her that the probability is very low.
Hillary might be a brilliant GOP plant, but the likelyhood is negligible.
On the contrary it worked out for conservatives pretty well. Who it didn't work out for were all the independents who only heard Bush during the campaign and thought he was a mild moderate kind of squishy.
They had some serious buyer's regret.
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
On checks and balances
There are actually quite a few checks on a President's control over nuclear weapons. He doesn't actually have a button that launches nukes. His orders need to be followed and lacking a reason, they might very well be ignored. This last year we heard rumors of generals saying they'd resign rather than follow orders to drop nuclear weapons in Iran
Relying on military commanders
to disobey a direct order from their commander in chief is not what I call a "check" or a "balance."
There's a reason we require the president to get war authorization from congress...
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
Home sales, more economics...
Today's Cunning Realist is good.
he talks about forclosed empty houses throughout middle class neighborhoods in Ohio.
"his is the heartland -- not Vegas, Los Angeles, or the west coast of Florida. And it's happening all over the country, from places like Shaker Heights to the leafy suburbs of Atlanta, Boston, and New York...But since home loss strikes at the heart of what many consider the American dream (with obvious longer-term implications for families, kids, and the bonds that hold society together at the local level) this seems less the result of bad monetary policy than some sort of radical social experiment gone horribly awry.
Conservatives have a bitter pill to swallow. You can spin this stuff a million ways (Clinton was reined in by Congress/he inherited Reagan's peace dividend/the economy was already stalling out by 2000, etc) and Heritage can churn out all the policy papers it wants. But if a Democrat wins in November and can take credit for fixing the current mess after one or two terms in office, an apparent pattern of Republicans leaving the economy in shambles and Democrats cleaning things up will have developed over the course of a quarter-century. And it'll take a lot more than lapel flag pins to change that perception."
He has strongly held beliefs, eh?
A Led Zeppelin world tour in the fall?
That's what Jimmy Page wants.
If only they would play smaller houses rather than football stadiums.
final SurveyUSA poll of FL shows slight Romney momentum
here is the link
:
Good.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Romney will be a lot easier to beat
Go Mitt!
qui tacet consentire
US Navy testing a rail gun
story here.
Screw that, where's my meson gun?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.