How Romney can derail McCain (a look at state polls)
Crossposted at RedState
Here I will quickly examine latest polls and Romney's chances to actually derail the premature coronation of John McCain. Unlike the large number of people eager to get on the bandwagon, I will not jump until the fat lady has sung. Sorry. And yes, I don't know if I will ever vote for McCain as a Conservative and it will depend on his behavior if he wins the GOP nomination.
I will present the best possible scenario for Mitt Romney which I give about 10-15% chance of happening.
Current delegate totals:
McCain 95, Romney 67, Huckabee 26
Analysis of the Super Tuesday States
Alabama - Proportional Delegates [48 total delegates]
A southern state with Huckabee giving McCain some, but not enough trouble. With Romney splitting conservatives with Huckabee, McCain should pull this one out, but there is a decent chance of Huckabee catching McCain.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 20 Huckabee 18 Romney 10
Alaska - Proportional Delegates [29 total delegates]
A staunchly republican state. Bush won with over 60%. However it is a more economic conservative than a social conservative state. Survey USA Bush approval number is 43% which is definitely one of the better states for him. In FL most people who approved of Bush broke for Romney so I believe Romney at least has a fighting chance to gain some of these proportional delegates. Without serious campaign here by either candidate, McCain's national numbers should beat Romney, but Huckabee is not a factor boosting Romney.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 17 Romney 12
Arizona - Winner Takes All [53 total delegates]
|Behavior Res. Ctr||40||23||7|
McCain's homestate should give him a comfortable margin of victory but it is also a state that knows him best. Romney could do better than expected here especially it being in the West where Romney does best (including small Mormon population). Unfortunately it is a winner takes all.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 53 Romney 0
Arkansas - Proportional Delegates [34 total delegates]
No good recent polls but last years polls show Huckabee ahead. It is Huckabee's home state and should give him a small margin of victory with McCain and Romney slightly behind.
My Optimistic Prediction: Huckabee 14 McCain 10 Romney 10
California - Proportional Delegates [173 total delegates]
This is a big one and despite it awarding delegates proportionately it could give Romney momentum if he squeezes out a victory. Arguable there is some momentum in his favor here and his chances are better in this Western State. Many conservative republicans here angry over Illegal Immigration, an issue on which Romney dominates. He can surprise McCain here and he's focused his ad campaign here.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 83 Romney 90
Colorado - Proportional Delegates [46 total delegates]
This is a caucus and Romney's organization should turn out the vote here. The margin might not be as big as the polls suggests but Romney will win.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 12 Romney 30 Huckabee 4
Connecticut - Winner Takes All [30 total delegates]
Romney has picked up a lot of support here since early January but it won't be enough despite CT's closeness to MA. McCain should win this moderate state comfortably.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 30 Romney 0
Delaware - Winner Takes All [18 total delegates]
No good recent polls but Giuliani ran well in this somewhat NE moderate state. The further you go down South on the Eastern Coast, the better will Romney do which is why I don't think it's certain that McCain will carry it. Thompson didn't do too
bad here in the last years polls. This could be a surprise.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 0 Romney 18
Georgia - Proportional Delegates [72 total delegates]
McCain made huge strides here after the FL primary. Fortunately it is proportional. It could be closer with Huckabee giving McCain a run for his money.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 28 Huckabee 28 Romney 16
Illinois - Proportional Delegates [70 total delegates]
A midwestern but a somewhat moderate state should give McCain a victory. Hopefully Romney is running some ads here as he can pick up some support in this proportional primary. Huckabee will not be a factor in the North.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 45 Romney 25
Massachussetts - Proportional Delegates [43 total delegates]
If only it was a Winner Take All. Romney should do well here as expected but not a total blowout which he needs. Still a good margin.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 11 Romney 32
Minnesota - Proportional Delegates [41 total delegates]
|Minn Pub. Radio||41||17||22|
This moderate midwestern state trends strongly for McCain. Despite the one poll here, I do not believe Huckabee will be a factor.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 28 Romney 13
Missouri - Winner Takes All [58 total delegates]
This state presents a chance for Romney's upset. There is some upward trending in his numbers here and with some good ad campaign he could do it. 3-way split should help him in this Winner Take All. It is my hope that on this day Conservatives will understand that only Romney has a chance against McCain and switch from Huckabee.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 0 Romney 58 Huckabee 0
Montana - Winner Takes All [25 total delegates]
No recent polls in this Western state but this is Romney country. He should be able to win this anti-establishment state.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 0 Romney 25
New Jersey - Winner Takes All [52 total delegates]
Despite late "surge" of support for Romney, McCain grabs most of Giuliani support here and should easily win all delegates here.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 52 Romney 0
New York - Winner Takes All [101 total delegates]
Yeah... Well, this is a given and no surprise whatsoever. I will vote for Romney here :)
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 101 Romney 0
North Dakota - Winner Takes All [26 total delegates]
No recent polls. Bush's approval here is relatively high at 40% and It is a mid-western state which should give some chance to Romney. I'll go out on a limb and predict that this conservative state goes for Romney.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 0 Romney 26
Oklahoma - Proportional Delegates [41 total delegates]
Romney should at least catch up with Huckabee here as Huckabee is trending downward everywhere.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 22 Romney 10 Huckabee 9
Tennessee - Proportional Delegates [55 total delegates]
Being an insider is not always advantageous. I believe that Romney has definitely improved in this state and shows momentum. Like I said above, Huckabee is trending downward overall and Romney shows surprising strength here. All potential for an upset.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 21 Romney 23 Huckabee 11
Utah - Winner Takes All [36 total delegates]
No polls needed in this Mormon Winnter Takes All Homeland. Romney will cruise.
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 0 Romney 36
West Virginia - Winner Takes All [18 total delegates]
No recent polls here but I will boldly predict that McCain will not win here. Who knows which way it will go so I'll pull it out from my ...
My Optimistic Prediction: McCain 0 Romney 18 Huckabee 0
McCain wins 9 for a total of 533 Delegates
Romney wins 11 for a total of 464 Delegates
Huckabee wins 1 for a total of 72 Delegates
If this is what happens or even if the split is 600-400, along with a potential California loss, this takes the veneer of inevitability away from McCain and extends Romney's life. Especially since this will spell the end for Huckabee. This is no time to surrender or give up on the hope of Conservative Romney winning GOP nomination and I'll wait until the fat lady sings.