Ultimate Feb 5th Prediction Thread
Here we go! Post your final predictions for Super Tuesday. You can do either Dem or GOP or both. Whoever comes closest will have bragging rights as the best SC predictor :) No need to predict actual delegate counts. Also you don't need to do all states or go state by state. If you feel like it, just give the approximate number of states won, maybe some really contested states results, who's hurt, who's helped, what happens after Super Tuesday.
I'll post my predictions in comments!
Submitted by Ender on Mon, 2008-02-04 18:35
-->
- Ender's diary
- Login or register to post comments
Comments :
here are mine, we'll see how many I get right
McCain is hurt, Huckabee drops out, Romney fights on. Hillary obliterates Obama on the sheer number of State victories (mostly on the strength of the female turnout) and is the presumptive nominee yet again though Obama soldiers on.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
How can I make a nice table like that? Excel?n/t
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678
Brawl: 2277-7051-2186
nah, just regular html
you can look it up here
for example.
And if you want, I can email you the code behind my table.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
On the dem side...
You're wrong about:
Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and MAYBE California.
Here's my picks:
Obama: AL, AK, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT
Clinton: AZ, AK, CA, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OK, TN
States: Obama 13, Clinton 9
Delegates: Obama with gains 32 overall... a statistical tie when considering 1650+ total.
Hillary's camp claims that CA win reflects the "nation". Obama's camp claims delegates are what matters, and winning more states.
Wednesday afternoon, John Edwards endorses Obama.
MSM declares the "tie" as an Obama win.
“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” --- Albert Einstein
I set expectations lower
What is clear is that folks don't really know/
Caucus's are dem only so that likely favors Clinton. Not sure Colorado will go for Obama.
A lot of progressives don't think Obama is progressive enough, sort of the same way that a lot of conservatives don't think John McCain is a conservative enough.
I am going to call the numbers for Clinton, but the delegates for Obama. But I don't really have a frickin' clue.
If tons of young folks turn out for Obama in California.......
Too many possibilities make the head spin.
As for Republicans....... I just can't get interested. :)
It is the economy, stupid.
I'm hoping for CA to go Obama
I don't trust the Zogby polls but I'm counting on the undecideds breaking his way.
But that mostly matters for spin, the result will be close enough that the delegate count won't change much whoever wins.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Prime Mover is Dead On
Your picks appear to be dead on (with the exception of NM). Although you have Alaska in both sections, I think you probably meant Arkansas for Clinton. You called it pretty well.
Now, how will the Mega Millions turn out? I'm buying a ticket on Friday with your picks here.
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678
Brawl: 2277-7051-2186
Wow! I had it EXACT!
the "AK" in the Clinton column was supposed to mean "Arkansas", not a dupe of Alaska.
I got the state totals right, came within 10 of the delegate count, and even got the post-election SPIN correct.
Damn, I'm good.
I swear to you that I don't have a time machine. ;-)
*NOW* will you people start to believe me when I have an opinion on the election? ;-)
By the way... some bonus predictions:
Obama will win every state that is left in the month of February. He will go into the March 4th mini-Super Tuesday with about a 150 to 200 delegate lead.
Hillary... due to cash shortages... will be forces to pull the Rudy-in-Florida strategy in Ohio and Texas.
If Hillary can win both of those, she has a shot to pull this out in a brokered convention with the superdelegates.
If Obama wins one of Ohio and Texas, this will be his nomination. The superdelegates will bow to the verdict of the pledged delegates.
Now.... go place your bets at intrade.com. ;-)
“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” --- Albert Einstein
Very impressive. -nt
The more you look into it
the more it seems to me (as objective as I can be) that Obama has the advantage.
ONe factor is that Hillary didn't exceed expectations anywhere...... anywhere!!! And Obama is way ahead in the money race!
Dems always win the coast states.....
What is remarkable is the states that Obama won. Utah!!! Alaska! Kansas! North Dakota!! Georgia!!
Does anyone really think that Clinton would have won those states. That brings a whole new democratic majority to vote for an Obama Presidency. I don't think Hillary would do nearly as well in those same states in a National Election.
It is the economy, stupid.
Wow
Yes you are! Outstanding.
I look forward to your continued prognostications.
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
Never!
At least not for a while. One lucky data point does not a trend make! :) Impressive none the less...
Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree
I just had to bump up my old predictions....
"By the way... some bonus predictions:
Obama will win every state that is left in the month of February. He will go into the March 4th mini-Super Tuesday with about a 150 to 200 delegate lead."
He is 10-0 in Primaries/Caucuses since I made that prediction, and his pledged delegate lead is 153, according to MSNBC.
SCORE for ME!
"Hillary... due to cash shortages... will be forced to pull the Rudy-in-Florida strategy in Ohio and Texas.
CHECK!
"If Hillary can win both of those, she has a shot to pull this out in a brokered convention with the superdelegates. If Obama wins one of Ohio and Texas, this will be his nomination. The superdelegates will bow to the verdict of the pledged delegates."
CHECK! CHECK!
Damn, I'm good.
;-)
“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” --- Albert Einstein
Analyzing Ender's picks - Democratic side
You missed on Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico. All of your picks were wrong in Hillary's direction.
And the states that you correctly picked for Hillary, you got the margins WOEFULLY wrong in all but Deleware. He won those six states by much larger margins that you predicted.
You have a very strong anti-Obama bias in your predictions, which means you are predicting with your heart, and not your head.
Several in here... Quaoar, Tlaloc, and yourself said that I was "cherry-picking" with polls showing Obama closing in and had a pro-Obama bias.
My picks below turned out to be EXACTLY right. 13 states for Obama, 9 for Clinton.
I know Democrats, and I know this race.
Hillary is running low in cash, and Obama is favored to win the rest of the states in February.
The intrade markets.... which were trading at 61-39 in Hillary's favor just 72 hours ago, are now 50-50.
I told all of you this many times over the past two weeks.... and you all called me nuts.
I'm gloating, sure.... and I apologize..... but if FEELS good. ;-)
“Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” --- Albert Einstein
Ender follows his gut.
He doesn't need things like 'books' to tell him 'facts.'
How does the rest of the Colbert's 'truthiness' commentary go?
Technically
Only Tlaloc has called you nuts -- or, rather, unscientific, which to Tlaloc I believe is equivalent ;}
The rest simply urge caution against premature jubilation.
Now if they would only pay attention about the "nominate Hillary at your peril" aspect.....I don't know why that's not obvious.
"Perplexity is the beginning of knowledge" -- Kahlil Gibran
some poll closing times info for you all
11:30am EST - Polls close in WV (R)
7pm EST - Polls close in GA
8pm EST - Polls close in AL, CT, DE, IL, MA, MO, NJ, OK, TN
8:30pm EST - Polls close in AR
9pm EST - Polls close in AZ, CO, KS (D), MN, NM (D), NY
10pm EST - Polls close in ID (D), ND, UT
11pm EST - Polls close in CA
12pm EST - Polls close in MT (R)
12:30am EST - Polls close in AK
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
11:30AM?
That's when they close in West Virginia?
WTH? Why wouldn't you, at a minimum, keep the polls open through the usual lunch hour of 12-1?
I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.
dunno
that's what it said in the MSNBC guide... I believe it is caucuses, but who the heck would find time to caucus, unless they were old, very young, or unemployed. Wonder if this info is correct.
[Update] Oh, it's just the State Party Convention... I guess there is no need for general voting :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Thanks, you've done great work
on the Super Tuesday stuff, even if you are overly optimistic as to the likely outcomes =P
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
good luck to your candidate Brendan :)
I am a bit more interested in the GOP side tonight, but the Dem side is plenty fascinating.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I'm excited about the election and abhor the process
all at the same time. How so?
The candidates, the possibilities - it is a marvel to actually see how our political process works "on the ground". It's good to see the excitement in races (even if I don't share that excitement) to recognize we citizens still have some control over the whole thing. All too often it spins out of our hands.
The process and the media, or the media and the process, whichever way you want to put it. The MSM & the blogsphere all have their preferred outcomes. Those outcomes are protrayed in the light the portrayee wants to push their point of view. This can be a calming experience bringing in explainations and intellect. More often though, it's anything but that. Modern politicing plays on fears WAY more than explaining ideas. It's the lowest common denominator, it's quicker than explaining something and it's much easier to mis-state your opponents position when doing so. Consequently, election times have become the best of times for a National Enquirer public and the worst of times for someone like me that prefers to have ideas serve as the reason for being. No, sadly the public has spoken and the public is incredibly dumb. Sorry, but they are.
My very conservative (NPI) predictions
Obama will win 8 states: Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Utah, North Dakota, Colorado, Idaho, and Alaska (thus finally ending the whole he cannot win whites argument). Obama may also pick up Americans Abroad.
Hillary will take the other 14 and American Samoa. However, when the delegates are all added up, I think that Hillary will win the delegate count by about 40, and we will still have a race.
My final, iron-clad delegate predictions after the dust clears:
Clinton: 866 Tuesday + 249 Previous = 1,115 delegates
Obama: 825 Tuesday + 181 Previous = 1,006 delegates...
and the race will continue on to the next level: Maryland, DC, and Virginia. Aren't you guys excited?
On the R side, I don't think McCain will have much of a problem. Watching the CA returns will be a sight to see though--if Romney can pull off the victory, he will have life again. But it looks bleak.
Oh, and if any of you will be in the City tomorrow evening, feel free to join us watch the results come in at
Baton Rouge
458 West 145th St.
New York, NY 10037
It should be an exciting night.
http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com
Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678
Brawl: 2277-7051-2186
They're saying Romney will win out here in CA.
Honestly, I believe it. The California Republican Party almost uniformly selects the most conservative individuals for elections. They didn't always. That's how Pete Wilson became both a Senator and Govenor for the state. But the Party itself is way more conservative than the public in general, thus we get odd match ups that produce Senators like Barbara Boxer.