A Look at Polls Heading into Super Tuesday Part 2
RealClearPolitics has the latest polls up:
In Ohio, on the Dem side, we have the latest polls showing a decent but vulnerable lead for Clinton.
The RCP average is Clinton +6 approx. And Reuters/Zogby is the exception of the latest round in that Obama is leading (by 2 points). Barring a late surge or a huge error in data, Clinton seems poised to take Ohio.
In Texas , things seem more dicey and unsettled. Obama has an RCP average lead by less than a point and has a razor thin lead in the latest polls which that mainly fall into the margin of error.
Should be interesting.
Of course, the fact that delegates won are what matter and not the popular vote and their polls, it's hard to assess much since the real deal will be at the local level where delegates are divided.
This is all seems to bode better for Obama in that he will retain his total popular vote lead and should maintain a slight lead in total delegates for a moral sense of victory. But this settles nothing. If the polls reflect reality and there are no fluky results at the district/county level (whichever it is), the delegate split should be pretty even with a slight edge for one or the other....meaning that little may be settled and a "hung jury" at the convention looms large where super delegates will rule the day.
BTW, Clinton has a commanding lead in Rhode Island ....for what it's worth.
Though it's early, check out the general election polls. McCain vs. Clintion and McCain vs. Obama
.
Edge to Obama over Clinton. However, anyone notice how Obama's "lead" over McCain has shrunk drastically??
Hmmm, are the Dems getting ready to snatch defeat from the hands of victory? Just a thought.....
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Comments :
it will be interesting
Hillary's last stand. If she wins both states, even by slim margins that do not allow her to close on Obama significantly, it will still be a huge moral victory and allow her to bounce back and campaign in PA and beyond.
I am hoping for that scenario.
I predict (with pretty pathetic track record on this):
Ohio - Hillary wins 55 - 44
Texas - Hillary wins 51 - 48
Rhode Island - Hillary wins 55 - 45
Vermont - Obama wins 60 - 40
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
I think we can safely ignore any poll
associated with Zogby for the moment, so that means Clinton should be fine in Ohio. With one caveat: the accuracy of the polls depends on getting voter demographics correct. So if a particular group turns out more heavily than anticipated, we can get surprises.
You're right of course that delegates are what matter, but I think the Clinton campaign has done a good job here of setting low expectations to the point where slim wins in Ohio and Texas, which really ought to be interpreted as the end of her chance to catch up in pledged delegates, will be spun as a comeback and might sway supers.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson