Wednesday Open Thread

I've consistently repeated the same mantra - it's a lot more about perception and momentum than it is about pure delegate counts. Hillary has a chance now. She can choose to attack Obama as a solid presidential candidate should do to an inexperienced candidate running on vapors and personality (sorry I am biased). Or she can lose. I think Hillary can get a 20%+ blowout in PA if she builds on her strong performance today. Also the Super Delegates who were ready to jump to Obama will hesitate and wait now.

It's a whole new ballgame and Obama could not clinch it despite spending 2-3 times more on Texas and Ohio than Hillary. Happy Wednesday!

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The financial community collectively held its breath

last week as S&P affirmed AMBAC's and MBIA's ratings.  AMBAC and MBIA insure many of the ABS structures that are out there and the bond's rating is tied to the insurance behind it.  If S&P would have downgraded, then banks would have had to pledge more capital to maintain their required capital ratios.

Now, we can quibble over S&P's methodology and ratings system, but the folks at Accrued Interest ask why a subjective opinion carries such dire circumstances...In their words what does AAA mean anyway?

 

First...how did the market take the news?  Like they've been burned by trusting the ratings agencies before.

The market continues to be highly skeptical of these ratings. CDS on both MBIA and Ambac's AAA-rated insurance subs are still well over 300, roughly in line with BBB+ rated Washington Mutual, wider than A rated Bear Stearns.

 

....and on the power of subjectivity.  That whatever is done creates a self-fullfilling prophecy (or negative feedback loop if you will.)


When you come down to it, the debate over whether the monolines should or should not be rated AAA is entirely subjective. We all agree that a AAA-rated bond should have a remote chance of taking losses, but how remote is remote? We all agree that a AAA-rated insurer should be able to withstand a 6-sigma event, but what constitutes a 6-sigma event? There is no single answer to these questions. It's subjective.

That would be OK, except that credit ratings are so ingrained in our financial system. Everything from banking and insurance regulations, mutual funds, money markets, pension funds, debt service reserve accounts, etc. all depend on a ratings system to guide them. Try sometime sitting down and reading the SEC 2A-7 rule, which governs money market investments. The rules all but encourage managers to buy whatever they want as long as the instrument has the right rating and right maturity. And yet if 2007 taught us anything, its that credit ratings are just opinions. No matter how sophisticated the modeling and financial analysis, those opinions can be just plain wrong.

On Monday, the Dow rallied nearly 200 points, and credit spreads almost universally tightened. Why? Because a AAA rating for MBIA and Ambac means that banks won't have to pledge more capital against downgraded ABS. This gives them more capital to lend into the economy. No matter what you think of S&P's analysis, that's the reality. If that reality bothers you, perhaps your derision should not be aimed at S&P or MBIA, but at the banking regulations that are so heavily reliant on ratings.

…………

They should have been downgraded.

These two companies have insured so much bad sub-prime paper that there is no way in hell that they can escape the next two years as profitable companies.

I can understand why the pressure was put on to keep them AAA. The Money Boys think they can wait this out and sweep the whole mess under the rug. If the amount of bad loans out there was less than it is, I'd agree they could pull this off. But I don't think they'll be able to put enough lipstick on that pig to make it work.

It's gonna get worse before it gets better.

………… parent

McCain got a couple of wins on Tuesday....

The smaller of the two is officially clinching the Republican nomination.

With his big funding-raising disadvantage, I'm sure he's very pleased that HRC and BO will have to spend money and time attacking each other for the next 7 weeks.

…………

And today

he gets to have his picture taken with George W. Albatross.

Smile real pretty McCain, cuz you're gonna see that picture a lot between now and November.

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

As opposed to being married to William J. Albatross?

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Money

Not convinced that this is a win for McCain. I suspect that the events of yesterday will prove to be another giant fund-raising opportunity for both Obama and Clinton, enabling them to get their messages out to millions and millions of more people, while McCain sits around desperately trying not to be ignored by the press.

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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More importantly

McCain has to sit mute due to FEC rules while Obama and Clinton remain in the 24 hour news cycle pretty much every day.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Re: money....

The nominee traditionally gets a big boost as far as fundraising goes. Now that you're splitting the fundraising effort between two candidates, it's going to hurt flow. Additionally, they've got to spend that money on what will be a hard fought campaign.

Simply put, the faucet is smaller. The drain is bigger. I think the money disadvantage is inarguable (though, the Dems will likely continue to destroy the Republicans overall in fundraising. McCain simply isn't generating excitement among in the ranks.)

Good point on the press aspect. I will tentatively agree with the tentative depending on how much they are beating each other up.

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the audacity of hubris :)

What's up Obama. Are you happy about the prospect of a nice campaign for PA and beyond?

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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The Fairy Tale is Over

Hillary is now officially the head of the Dick Cheney wing of the democratic party.

We find out from CNN, that the vapid, empty Great Black Hope wears muslim garb, doesn't wear a flag lapel pin, and possibly goes to a muslim church. As far as Hillary knows.....

Hillary revives herself from the near dead like a vampire rising in the night, waiting to put a stake through the heart of Prince Charming.

My cynicism index is maxed out. While Barack shows promise, but he can't close the deal.

…………

cheer up

As a woman you should be happy about Hillary! ;)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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As you know, Ender, ...

my GOP buddies and I did our part yesterday all over the state of Ohio, but in the end we simply couldn't have done it without those racist Democrats.

I mean policy wise I don't see much difference between Hillary and Barack [My own wife is afraid of my middle name] Obama. So what were they left with to make their choice? Either the color of their skin or their gender

In the end it seems that they picked the white power structure over the oppressed blacks. Just one more example of how Hillary as a White woman has it better than even a black leader like Obama. She continues to benefit from our slave owning past which has kept the black man down even today as yesterday's primaries clearly demonstrated.

Hillary only won because she is White. What a sad statement about the Democrat party ... the party that is supposed to be for the blacks and minorities. They continue to keep their jack boot of oppression on the throat of one of the nation's most promising leaders.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

………… parent

hehe

dude that is funny :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Sometimes, you're so close to something that you can't see it

One of your themes is how "identity politics" dominates the Democratic Party.  I readily admit that it's an issue:  in the Democratic Party, whites still strongly tend to vote for white candidates, and blacks still strongly tend to vote for black candidates.  It doesn't take a genius to figure out what a huge role race plays in many people's voting decisions.

Funny how, though, that all these black Democrats aren't fleeing all these white racists in the Democratic party and flooding into the Republican Party.  Apparently, they'd rather take their chances with the white racist Demnocrats. So apparently you're overlooking some missing appeal of the Democratic Party, or some lack thereof in the Republican Party.

And what you're missing is the fact that you belong to a party that has taken identity politics to an even more insidious level, by adopting and protecting policies and positions that attempt to maintain and perpetuate legacy white wealth and privelege from earlier racist eras. 

I'm talking about such policies such as the reduction of taxes on unearned investment income and the elimination or reduction of inheritance taxes, both of which would serve to help ensure that more "old" money was passed thru to future generations.  Much of this money, largely held by whites, was not earned by present generations, but it is the legacy of wealth and privelege from an earlier racist era where unfair policies excluded blacks from the opportunity to accumulate wealth, or worse, where white wealth was generated on the back of blacks, whose own wealth needle was never allowed to budge from zero.

In fact, any attempt to gradually even out the distribution of wealth over generations, no matter how subtle the policy, no matter how non-punitive the measure, is characterized in the Republican Party as "wealth redistribution", code for "stealing earned money from someone and giving it to someone who didn't earn it".  The fallacy that all white wealth and privilege has been earned is never questioned in the Republican Party.  The false assumption is made that everybody got an even start in life.  Even policies which would benefit only young people, such as money for college for poor students, is looked at as wealth redistribution-- as if the students from rich (largely white) students who can afford college earned that privilege.  In this way, even "earned" money is kept in the hands of whites, as the cost to go to the good schools skyrockets and significant wealth is required to attend, which tends to keep the good jobs in the hands of privileged whites whose parents have the green to put them thru school 

Same thing with primary education-- rich white Republicans want to keep "their" tax money in their schools for their kids-- meaning that the schools where the poor kids go get inferior funding and end up providing an inferior education.  It's just another way to pass on privelege and wealth from generation to generation, and it's not as if the rich kids "earned" this privelege and the poor kids did not. 

Sure, the brilliant and the talented can thrive and accumulate wealth under the Republican rules regardless of race; but where in time where the average black individual has had a favorable environment to accumulate the kind of wealth that can be passed from generation and make a difference?  When has there been a time higher education was accessible to most blacks, when you consider that almost as soon as segregation was phased out, college costs began to rise and have skyrocketd beyond the means of many black families?  Where is the even playing field for the poor black kid in the inner city who has not one single ancestor who was a member of a privleged class, who has not one single ancestor who passed on any significant wealth to the next generation that could be used to fund an education or start a business?

So sure, you can point to the race squabbles of the Demoicratic party, but recognize that you are a member of a homogenous, lily white party, which maintains that homogeneity by adoptiong economic policies that have little to no appeal to most black people-- policies that do not value work or education but place a high value on passing unearned legacy wealth and privilege from generation to generation.

 

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Wrong.

One of your themes is how "identity politics" dominates the Democratic
Party. I readily admit that it's an issue: in the Democratic Party,
whites still strongly tend to vote for white candidates, and blacks
still strongly tend to vote for black candidates. It doesn't take a
genius to figure out what a huge role race plays in many people's
voting decisions
.

Well, it seems to have escaped most of the Democrat party ... at least in Ohio and Texas ... where they clearly showed that they are willing to talk the talk but NOT walk the walk. Hypocrits pure and simple. Holier than thou attitudes from the athiests, that's funny.

Funny how, though, that all these black Democrats aren't fleeing all
these white racists in the Democratic party and flooding into the
Republican Party. Apparently, they'd rather take their chances with
the white racist Demnocrats. So apparently you're overlooking some
missing appeal of the Democratic Party, or some lack thereof in the
Republican Party.

Well, not exactly. When you are running a plantation, as the Democrat party is, you make sure the blacks continue to be dependent on you for everything. That is the primary goal of the liberal handout programs, to buy votes and keep people dependent. If anyone is keeping these people locked into a cycle of poverty it is the Democrats and their policies of dependence.

And what you're missing is the fact that you belong to a party that has
taken identity politics to an even more insidious level, by adopting
and protecting policies and positions that attempt to maintain and
perpetuate legacy white wealth and privelege from earlier racist eras.

Bah, humbug. We are doing no such thing. We are adopting and protecting policies that allow people to keep what is theirs, pure and simple, and to keep people from confiscating personal property for redistribution to others.

I'm talking about such policies such as the reduction of taxes on
unearned investment income and the elimination or reduction of
inheritance taxes, both of which would serve to help ensure that more
"old" money was passed thru to future generations. Much of this money,
largely held by whites, was not earned by present generations, but it
is the legacy of wealth and privelege from an earlier racist era where
unfair policies excluded blacks from the opportunity to accumulate
wealth, or worse, where white wealth was generated on the back of
blacks, whose own wealth needle was never allowed to budge from zero.

Total BS. Which generation earned the money should not be a factor in this discussion. Why do you want to tax people for dying? What a ghoulish way of confiscating someone's property and preventing them from providing for the progeny. In the end ALL of this money was earned, which generation earned it does not matter.

The simple fact is that you are confiscating money that was earned by someone and giving it to someone else without their consent. Whether it was earned by me, my father, or my grandfather doesn't change that fact.

In fact, any attempt to gradually even out the distribution of wealth
over generations, no matter how subtle the policy, no matter how
non-punitive the measure, is characterized in the Republican Party as
"wealth redistribution", code for "stealing earned money from someone
and giving it to someone who didn't earn it".

There's no "code" about it. That's exactly what it is. You can't deny it.

The fallacy that all white wealth and privilege has been earned is never questioned in the Republican Party.

Give me some examples of "white wealth and privilege" which wasn't "earned: by someone somewhere.

The false assumption is made that everybody got an even start in life.

I have no idea who makes this assumption. You're just making this up.

Even policies which would benefit only young people, such as money for
college for poor students, is looked at as wealth redistribution-- as
if the students from rich (largely white) students who can afford
college earned that privilege. In this way, even "earned" money is
kept in the hands of whites, as the cost to go to the good schools
skyrockets and significant wealth is required to attend, which tends to
keep the good jobs in the hands of privileged whites whose parents have
the green to put them thru school.

Hey, I can't speak for everyone but I don't know any one personally who actually complains that Blacks and other minorities shouldn't have a decent chance to get a decent education. I have advocated here many times for a system to funds kids equally and have even advocated for a progressive form of funding where the rich pay more than the poor into the pool. I am speaking, of course, about school vouchers.

Republicans want to give minorities and equal opportunity to attend those better schools by providing a system that actually gives them choice. The Democrats are consistently against such policies, preferring instead to keep them locked into a system of inferior schools with inferior results which keeps the black ignorant and uneducated. A policy used by slave owners in their day as well. Coincidence? You decide.

College education? There are already so many programs handing out so much money and it is all tied to need. Merit scholarships are almost totally unheard of anymore. Rich people won't see a cent of the public grants for education so I don't know where you are getting this mostly rich white kids BS. Show me some evidence that the bulk of the public grant money is going to rich white kids because I simply don't believe it.

Same thing with primary education-- rich white Republicans want to keep
"their" tax money in their schools for their kids-- meaning that the
schools where the poor kids go get inferior funding and end up
providing an inferior education. It's just another way to pass on
privelege and wealth from generation to generation, and it's not as if
the rich kids "earned" this privelege and the poor kids did not.

Well, as I pointed out above, school vouchers are a viable mechanism to address this very concern. Who's for them? Republicans. Who's against them? Democrats. Net results for the minorities? They are stuck in inferior schools with no options ... just where the Democrats apparantly want them.

Sure, the brilliant and the talented can thrive and accumulate wealth
under the Republican rules regardless of race; but where in time where
the average black individual has had a favorable environment to
accumulate the kind of wealth that can be passed from generation and
make a difference?

Whether I accept this loaded premise or not, the Democrat rules prevent such a thing in the first place, right? I mean lets say that Joe Average Black Guy happens to earn a couple of hundred million or so. When he dies you are going to confiscate huge amounts of it from his kids anyway, right?

The Democrats are, once again, putting in place a system whereby everyone is forced to start back at square one. Everyone is forced to scrape and scratch to get ahead. Why do they do this? Because they want people to be poor and hungry because it allows them to come in on their white horse and pretend to make it better. All the while, of course, padding their own pockets and keeping the minorities and the poor shut out of their power structure. Republicans, of course, are not afraid of sharing their power with minorities.

When has there been a time higher education was accessible to most
blacks, when you consider that almost as soon as segregation was phased
out, college costs began to rise and have skyrocketd beyond the means
of many black families?

Well, I would say that college education is as readily available to blacks in recent history as it has ever been, wouldn't you? Is there still rom for improvement? Sure, so why are the Democrats advocating policies that hamper the ability of minorities to get a good primary education so that they are prepared to succeed in college?

Where is the even playing field for the poor black kid in the inner
city who has not one single ancestor who was a member of a privleged
class, who has not one single ancestor who passed on any significant
wealth to the next generation that could be used to fund an education
or start a business?

I don't know about you, but I don't have some fat trust fund in my background. Nor do most of the people who go to college or start their own businesses. This is a stawman.

So sure, you can point to the race squabbles of the Demoicratic party,
but recognize that you are a member of a homogenous, lily white party,
which maintains that homogeneity by adoptiong economic policies that
have little to no appeal to most black people ...

There is nothing homogeneous or lilly white about my party.

... policies that do not value work or education but place a high value on
passing unearned legacy wealth and privilege from generation to
generation.

This part is funny. Republicans are THE party of hard work and education. Democrats are THE party of hand-outs and keeping minorities stuck in dead-end schools.

As for "unearned legacy wealth" please provide some examples of "legacy wealth" that wasn't earned by someone, somewhere, sometime, and how impasing a death tax on people ... especially any minorities that happen to accumulate some wealth ... is helping the poor in any way? This policy is explicitly design to insure that are as many poor people as possible, not the other way around.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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A couple short responses, perhaps more later...

Total BS. Which generation earned the money should not be a factor in
this discussion. Why do you want to tax people for dying? What a
ghoulish way of confiscating someone's property and preventing them
from providing for the progeny. In the end ALL of this money was
earned, which generation earned it does not matter.

 It's a tax, not a 100% tax.  Words like "confiscate someone's property" hint that everything is being taken away, when really, the tax would only represent a small percentage of the total estate.  Heirs would still benefit.  But the tax money would alleviate the need for higher taxes on working people and small business, give them a chance to maybe build up a bit of an estate themselves.  So working people would have less of their paycheck confiscated, and small business would have less of their revenue confiscated-- if you want to look at it that way.

There's no "code" about it. That's exactly what it is. You can't deny it.

Making adjustments to the tax code is not stealing. Any adjustment to the tax code that is revenue neutral will have winners and losers.  But it's not stealing.  Raising inheritance taxes to lower income taxes is not stealing.  If you don't like it, vote for the nuts who say that all taxes are uncostitutional.

I am speaking, of course, about school vouchers.

 Well, since there seems to be no will to fix public education, I'm willing to try something else.  I'm not fundamentally against vouchers.  Funny thing is though-- when the Republicans were in power in both houses of Congress and the Executive, instead of aggressively pushing thru a solid conservative agenda, their leadership was over getting drunk in Scotland on a golf junket scheming up ways to shake down the Indian Casinos.

Out of time for now, I may respond to more of this later... 

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Don't make me go there.......

:-)

(I will be nice, since I already got my jag on about Hillary as Cheney's vampire twin sister, and all the other sweet things I have to say about Hillary.)

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This post applies to all the die hards out there:

Obama and Clinton Supporters Must Drop Out of the Race .

As a liberal democrat, anyone who trashes their own party and increases the electability of John McCain is no different than Ralph Nader was in 2000.

I don't care who you like and who you hate. Don't screw the pooch. That goes for both Clintonites & Obamaphiles..

Tangental topic - the subject of a Hillary/Obama ticket was brought up yesterday in an interview with Hillary. She said it might be a good idea but it has yet to be determined who would lead the ticket. I like that answer.

Compare that to Rove's new idea spouted on Hannity & combs last night that John McCain name Mitt Romney as his VP. Makes me think that bush43's history of drinking & snorting too much stuff in the 70's & 80's has finally caught up to bush's brain.

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well...

As a liberal democrat, anyone who trashes their own party and increases the electability of John McCain is no different than Ralph Nader was in 2000.

You say that like Nader was a bad thing...

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Nader has "issues".

He was someone back in the 60's. He never regained his glory from the GM Corvair days. It's an ego thing I guess.

He still denies having any responsibility in Gore losing the 2000 elections. Now now I think he is a very sad old man.

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I've always thought the Democrats were a dog of a party ...

I don't care who you like and who you hate. Don't screw the pooch. That goes for both Clintonites & Obamaphiles..

but it is good to know that you see it the same way. :)

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Democrats are like cats

Republicans are lemmings.

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

Democrats are like cats.

Republicans are free thinking adult humans.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Republicans are like lemmings with each other.

Just watch as they follow their leaders over the cliff into the sea.

When republicans are in a mixed group of others who aren't all republicans, then republicans are like monkeys flinging their poo at everyone else.

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Well, maybe cats wasn't the proper analogy after all ...

but somehow this puerile twaddle is making my point about who the adult humans are.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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yea, just like the Swift Boat Liars.

monkey = adult and monied republican.

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Keep diggin' ... :)

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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hmmm

where are all our Obamaniacs?!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Jamming the lines of the suicide hotline

You'd think that David Duke had won yesterday from the hysterical reaction over at DKos last night.

Obama took a shot to the chin last night. If he has the mettle to be president, he will bounce back and be all the stronger for it. If not, he'll be a footnote and we'll all be better off for finding out in time.

Personally, I think he'll right the ship and eventually win the nomination.

qui tacet consentire

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Hmmm, interesting ...

You'd think that David Duke had won yesterday from the hysterical reaction over at DKos last night.

You mean like I expressed it here:

As you know, Ender, ...

 

or some other take? 

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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You must have missed the Republican reaction

qui tacet consentire

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Yawn.

After this I don't ever want to hear how Republicans don't have a sense of humor.  That wasn't funny at all or on any level.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Marcos is sayign the right things. The audience is still

acting like this is a religious dogma thing.

Marcos is saying he still wants and thinks Obama will win. Obama will win just by the delegate counts alone. There is no way Hillary can win all the remaining primaries with 80% or more and that's what she'll need in order to overcome the lead Obama now has. Marcos is also saying Hillary is a very smart person and that she is a good Democrat.

The crowds.....well, they are more like the crowds during the French Revolution. They are screaming for blood.

When it comes down to them realizing that it's either a Democrat or a Republican who will be the next President (yes, Nader has zero chance), I hope they'll decide they would prefer a Democrat.

But hey, McCain and his people are saying they can take California in the general election. I sure hope they spend huge sums trying to do that in the upcoming campaign. It'll just mean they have less to spend where they may actually have a chance.

But I'm not a good representative person here. After all, I think that the Electoral College is an anachronism that should be done away with, let the Republic become a true Democracy.

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Gah

But Hillary Rodham Clinton's camp has a strong following on campuses, too, students said. While Mr. Obama's stance on the war in Iraq was a determining factor for several college-age supporters, many young voters said they backed Mrs. Clinton because of her universal health care plan.

"I lost my health care coverage when I turned 25 ... and I haven't had insurance since, mainly because I can't afford it," said Katherine Jones, a 27-year-old Texas Woman's University student who voted for Mrs. Clinton. "I'd like to know that I can go to the doctor when I get sick without having to worry that it's going to cost me a ton of money."

Of course, Obama is the candidate making the case that the reason people don't have insurance is because they can't afford it, not because it's not mandated. Both plans would make health insurance more affordable, but the Clinton plan would mandate health insurance even for people who might not want it, like young healthy workers. Why might they not want mandated health insurance? Because odds are they'd be overpaying to help cover the higher risk pool -- effectively a regressive tax that even then only partially closes the funding gap.

Whatever you think of the overall respective merits of the Clinton and Obama plans, young people such as those interviewed for this article should clearly prefer Obama's version, with the option to opt-in or not as they choose. That they view Hillary's plan as better for them individually indicates just how successful her campaign spin (with a gigantic assist from Krugman) has been.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

Both aspects are true.

When I was in my 20's, I never had Health Insurance. Mostly because it just wasn't affordable but partly because it wasn't offered. A couple of the companies I worked at had only their top honcho's covered. Everyone else got the plan B pay through the ass plan that they didn't buy.

But, and I voted for Obama so don't kill me, Obama's plan won't make Insurance more affordable. 2 reasons:

1) Group coverage needs healthy people in the "pool" in order to make rates cheaper.

2) Uninsured people still get sick or hurt, go to hospital emergency rooms for care, and then don't pay. Guess how those bills are covered? They raise the price on everyone else who does have insurance. The hospital can only write off stuff to their profits. They still need to make money to pay their utilities, staff and property taxes.

There is no free lunch. get used to it.

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you just beat me to the punch

good job dude :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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This is incorrect

The aspects aimed at making it more affordable for everyone have to do with modernizing the system, removing inefficiencies, and having government shoulder the costs for catastrophic coverage.

The total costs of health care are relatively fixed. The question is how to divide up the costs.

(1) Forcing healthy people into the pool makes the rates cheaper for the high risk cases and makes the rates more expensive for the low risk cases. The problem here is that you are merging two pools with different risk levels, when in fact what you want (if the goal is "fair" priced insurance) is to pool risk within a relatively homogeneous group.

Again, regardless of whether you think Obama's or Clinton's plan is better overall, the young health people such as those interviewed in that article should logically personally prefer Obama's plan.

(2) There are ways to handle the free rider problem short of mandates, such as a limited enrollment period or penalties if someone changes their mind. The difference is that someone who doesn't access benefits does NOT pay under the Obama plan and does pay under the Clinton plan.

Yes, in theory this should make the Obama plan slightly more expensive, since you're not stiffing the young workers. Cover it with progressive taxation.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Didn't mean to jump down your throat

Ditto to Ender.

Maybe I'm still a bit irritated by the results last night =(

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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I don't buy it Brendan

Which you know because we've argued it before, but it's wednesday- time to do Healthcare :)

The aspects aimed at making it more affordable for everyone have to do with modernizing the system, removing inefficiencies, and having government shoulder the costs for catastrophic coverage.

How can you modernize the system when you keep private insurers involved? They are the inefficency.

The total costs of health care are relatively fixed. The question is how to divide up the costs.

(1) Forcing healthy people into the pool makes the rates cheaper for the high risk cases and makes the rates more expensive for the low risk cases.

That's not right. mandating coverage lowers the cost for everyone. Simple equation-
x is the total cost of health care
y is the population of people paying an equal portion of that cost
anytime y goes up the cost per capita (x/y) goes down.

Hence the way to achieve the lowest price is to spread the cost across everyone. This is fair because everyone requires some amount of health care in their life. Whether they need a lot or a little is often simply a matter of luck.

Again, regardless of whether you prefer Obama's or Clinton's plan overall, the young health people such as those interviewed in that article should logically personally prefer Obama's plan.

Only if they value their personal well being above everyone else- in which case they'd be republicans anyway... :)

There are ways to handle the free rider problem short of mandates, such as a limited enrollment period or penalties if someone changes their mind. The difference is that someone who doesn't access benefits does NOT pay under the Obama plan and does pay under the Clinton plan.

Everyone get the benefits. Nobody in this day and age goes their whole life without ever visiting a doctor,a hospital, or a pharmacy. You can even point to the indirect benefits (i.e. if you aren't sick but your wife is it still benefits you to get her care).

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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No it doesn't

mandating coverage lowers the cost for everyone. Simple equation-
x is the total cost of health care
y is the population of people paying an equal portion of that cost
anytime y goes up the cost per capita (x/y) goes down.

It lowers the cost for everyone who participates. It obviously increases it for those who don't from the zero dollars they were previously paying.

The thing is, most of those non-participants don't want to pay zero dollars and risk large debts later and/or sharply curtailed access to care. They're happy to pay their fair share towards x in return for coverage. Most of them will opt-in anyway if they can afford it and if they get more-or-less reasonable rates (ie, they aren't overpaying by too much to cover the extra cost of the high risk cases).

I don't buy it Brendan, which you know because we've argued it before

Yes, I thought your point about framing it in terms of future benefits was a strong one, although we already pay towards Medicare.

How can you modernize the system when you keep private insurers involved? They are the inefficency.

They certainly aren't the only inefficiency, although I tend to agree that a government-run single-payer baseline system (to which I would add optional "luxury" coverage) makes the most sense. There are more details at Obama's and Clinton's websites =P

Only if they value their personal well being above everyone else- in which case they'd be republicans anyway... :)

Heh. But seriously -- I really do think it's best to design policy in such a way that it is aligned with personal well being whenever possible. Not always possible, and maybe health care is one such area, but I'm strongly convinced that the larger the misalignment between the public good and self interest, the stronger political opposition will be to the proposed plan.

Everyone get the benefits. Nobody in this day and age goes their whole life without ever visiting a doctor,a hospital, or a pharmacy.

But, of course, they get different amount of benefit. That's still not a problem, if I paid my "market value" of insurance and got lucky enough not to need care I have no cause to complain. It's also not a problem if we as a society decide it is in our interest to provide care to anyone who needs it -- now we just need to figure out how to share the cost. I vote for progressive taxation.

You can even point to the indirect benefits (i.e. if you aren't sick but your wife is it still benefits you to get her care).

Edit: forgot this last point. Agree in principle but I'd point out that in many cases spouses and children are already are covered under the same plan.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Shorter Brendan

The "mandate" in a single-payer system with automatic enrollment funded by general taxes is fine. The mandate in Clinton's plan is potentially problematic for both political and practical reasons (although it's not really as important a distinction from Obama's plan as both she and he like to argue).

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Differences

It lowers the cost for everyone who participates. It obviously increases it for those who don't from the zero dollars they were previously paying.

Our difference here is in who we say is participating (i.e who is getting medical treatment). I'm maintaining that it is universal for all intents and purposes and hence the body of people paying for it should be too.

But seriously -- I really do think it's best to design policy in such a way that it is aligned with personal well being whenever possible. Not always possible, and maybe health care is one such area, but I'm strongly convinced that the larger the misalignment between the public good and self interest, the stronger political opposition will be to the proposed plan.

Despite my bluster you do have a good point here. In a republic the more innocuous or acceptable the policy the more likely it is to get enacted and the less likely it is to later be rescinded.

But, of course, they get different amount of benefit. That's still not a problem, if I paid my "market value" of insurance and got lucky enough not to need care I have no cause to complain.

Just as a person might not personally drive much on the freeways their taxes create, but they get a lot of goods shipped along those freeways...

Agree in principle but I'd point out that in many cases spouses and children are already are covered under the same plan.

You can always change it to sibling, or parent, or best friend, or whatever...

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Don't worry. You have to have a thick skin to talk here.

I work in the Health Industry now. Yes, the whole pantheon that makes up the "industry" does have many flaws. Believe it or not, I support the single payer system, even though that would probably mean I'd have to find a new job. But probably not.

Right now, it would just be too expensive for the government to start up it's own health care dept. Just think of the VA on a huge scale. They'd have to buy out the private hospitals, they'd have to buy rent space for clinics, they'd have to pay salaries for people to run all those things. That's why I say it probably won't happen.

A much more likely scenerio is like what happens now to folks with MediCare (MediCal out here). Those people can either find physicians who take MediCal (Care) which is getting harder and harder to find, or they can sign up for a private insurance and MediCare pay's their premium for them. That's much more likely.

My company is a Not for Profit HMO. It's run by the physicians who practice here. They are the owners for all practical purposes. They make all the medical calls, not accountants. That doesn't mean the company doesn't make a profit. it does most years. It means that that profit gets distributed to the owners and the employees so the books zero out every year.

The industry does have it's horror stories. The scams, the pharmaceutical industry, the stupid red tape (especially here in CA). But the way it will go is more than likely people will get the chance to choose who you will go to in the area where you live.

Are there better ways to do it? Yes. There are. But finding the balance and finding the balance that will actually get through any political process will force the issue to the middle. I wish we had Canada's system. We won't. We won't because there is too much money in the system we have now and those folks don't want to give up their money. The best alternative is to find a system that has a chance of passing and cuts the difference. Oh yea.....the drug companies. We have to find a way where the drug companies can spend money on development and still have money to spend on their employees and their stockholders. Right now, there is no middle there. That's the first place I'd start.

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I'll defer to your analysis as to the likely next steps

I think most of us would settle for cutting the difference at this point, which is basically what the proposed plans do with the hybrid public/private + regulation schemes.

Would you say your company is more or less likely to base treatment options on potential profit because of the way it is structured? In theory I certainly prefer the doctor making the call rather than an accountant... but if the doc gets a chunk of the profit, might not that impact his decision?

Also curious -- do you think there's a chance the recently killed universal bill in CA will be revived anytime soon?

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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I work in the accounting section.

They do take money and costs into account. Things that pop up with some frequency, they'll contract to an outside provider if they don't have a specialist to cover that. Some Specialties they end up adding that physician group to the mix if it comes up often enough. We just added Radiation Therapy as an example. Previously that was all sent to outside groups.

Physicians who are part of an ownership group do take costs into account more than physicians who are independent and billing an insurance carrier. Independents don't care and are more prone to wanting the newest toys and pharmeceuticals. Our physicians care and will use the new stuff that actually has a higher level of effect on a patients care. If it's the same, and this is particularly true with drugs, they'll use the cheaper stuff.

I won't say that the physicians are completely altruistic. They aren't. They know if they go by a spreadsheet to make their decisions they'll get sued (and lose) and that will shoot their spreadsheet all to hell. They care about both the member (patient) and the costs.

The bill you are talking about is probably Arnold's proposal. It wasn't going to go anywhere. Arnold didn't really put much into it. It wasn't a comprehensive plan, more of a marketing plan to make him look good. Of course, the ususal suspects (the same ones who killed Hillary's proposal, which also had pleanty of things to gripe about) did the same marketing to kill Arnolds plan. I would say what Arnold was trying to do was a good place to start a discussion. It wouldn't have been the final product though.

At some point, the American public will demand change in the way the system works now. Just the dollars involved will force the issue. Essentially I see a system where those that are raking in huge bucks rake in less. They really can't cut the rank & file healthcare workers money because they don't make that much. The folks at the top (and that includes some of the physicians in my company) are going to have to tighten their belt so as to keep getting some of the eggs that goose is laying. But they'll bitch, lie and scream the whole time.

America....the land of grown up babies.

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what happens when those young healthy workers

have a serious problem and have to go to the doctor / emergency room and can't afford it there? Why should those who didn't opt out of this plan and bought in, pay for the people who decided not to purchase it because they thought they might not need it.

For me, if we do go to Universal Healthcare, you gotta make it fair like with Auto insurance where everyone who has a car has to have it. With Universal Healthcare, everyone who has a body and is alive should have it or else they shouldn't be living.

Sorry, but in the battle of Socialist plans, Hillary makes more sense.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Auto insurance is a terrible analogy

(a) There is no requirement that you insure yourself or your car. The minimum mandated insurance is to cover the guy you run into (and his car). Note also that this mandate most definitely does not prevent people from driving uninsured.

(b) Risk pools are related to behavior, rather than genetics. No this is not perfect either way (behavior can impact medical risk, non-controllable factors such as age and gender can impact auto risk) but it's much more correlated with auto insurance.

(c) Auto insurance rates are not controlled or capped, so really bad drivers have to pay an amount that reflects their risk. In the health care plans proposed, both Clinton and Obama would prevent "discrimination" based on prior illness -- ie, they would remove the link between risk and cost. So it's not even really insurance anymore -- essentially, you're arguing over how best to pay for the (relatively fixed) cost of health care.

As far as the free rider problem, see my response to kindness above. The actual magnitude of the effect is expected to be quite limited according to the studies I read.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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for Ron Paul fans among us

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I would guess

because he believes the US government has no place condemning the internal politics of other nations.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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why not?

everyone has a right to an opinion, correct?

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Individual congress people

certainly can have their own opinions. When they pass a resolution it is no longer an opinion, nor is it personal- it is then an official position taken by the US government.

Just to be clear I'm not saying I completely agree with Ron Paul on the issue, I'm just saying where I think he's coming from, although my thoughts are probably much closer to his than to, say, yours. :)

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Unsurprisingly

Kevin Drum reminds us of the eternal truth- the rich get richer at the expense of everyone else.

quoting from the WSJ:

The nation's top 400 taxpayers reported a total of $85.6 billion of income on their federal income-tax returns for 2005 — an average of $213.9 million apiece, according to Internal Revenue Service data obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

....The top 400 taxpayers have greatly increased their share of individuals' income since the mid-1990s. The group accounted for 1.15% of total income in 2005, up from 1.02% the prior year — and more than twice as large as its 0.49% share a decade earlier. It's the highest percentage since the early 1990s, which is as far back as the IRS data go.

Even after adjusting for inflation, the minimum amount of income required to make the top-400 list has nearly tripled since 1992.

....The average federal income-tax rate for the group was 18.23%....well below the average income-tax rate of nearly 30% back in 1995, when Bill Clinton was in the White House. By contrast, the average income-tax rate for 2005, based on all returns filed, was 12.6%

So, during a period when wages for most americans were nil or negative and personal debt skyrocketed, the super wealthy made bank. Pretty clearly their tax rate is a tad low...

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Even more unsurprisingly ...

You are perpetuating a completely cherry picked set of statistics to present a false view of the situation. Here are the bits you and Drum left out:

From the original WSJ article:

Top 400 through 2005 -- Table 1 | Table 2 | Table 3

All of my comments here are from table 1.

The nation's top 400 taxpayers reported a total of $85.6 billion of
income on their federal income-tax returns for 2005 — an average of
$213.9 million apiece, according to Internal Revenue Service data
obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

They also paid $15.6 billion in taxes -- an average of $39 million each for 2005.

....The top 400 taxpayers have greatly increased their share of
individuals' income since the mid-1990s. The group accounted for 1.15%
of total income in 2005, up from 1.02% the prior year — and more than
twice as large as its 0.49% share a decade earlier. It's the highest
percentage since the early 1990s, which is as far back as the IRS data
go.

This is true, but it is a problem why? They accounted for 1.67% of the total taxes collected in 2005, up from 1.51% the prior year and 1.03% a decade earlier. They have consistently paid a higher percentage of the total tax receipts than they earned as a percentage of the total income. This is completley consistent with the notion of progressive taxation.

Even after adjusting for inflation, the minimum amount of income
required to make the top-400 list has nearly tripled since 1992.

This is interesting but why is it a problem in and of itself? It isn't.

....The average federal income-tax rate for the group was
18.23%....well below the average income-tax rate of nearly 30% back in
1995, when Bill Clinton was in the White House. By contrast, the
average income-tax rate for 2005, based on all returns filed, was 12.6%

Again, I ask, this is a problem why? While their effective tax rates dropped from roughly 30% in 1995 to 18.23% in 2005, their share of the total tax load increased from 1.03% to 1.67%. In terms of real dollars (i.e. inflation adjusted to 1990 dollars) they went from paying roughly $5.2 billion in 1995 to $10.4 billiion in 2005. In other words, Geoge Bush even WITH his tax cuts managed to soak these people for almost twice as much as Bill Clinton did.

Gee, their effective tax rates went down ... and yet somehow the taxes collected from them went up, and not only in terms of dollars collected but as a percentage of the total. Hmmm, where have I heard this before?

Pretty clearly their tax rate is still a tad high...

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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FBI chief: Report shows improper use of subpoenas in terror case

No, really?

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The FBI improperly used national security letters in 2006 to obtain personal data on Americans during terror and spy investigations, Director Robert Mueller said Wednesday.

A report will show subpoenas were improperly used to get personal data, FBI chief Robert Mueller says.

Mueller told the Senate Judiciary Committee that the privacy breach by FBI agents and lawyers occurred a year before the bureau enacted sweeping new reforms to prevent future lapses.

Details on the abuses will be outlined in the coming days in a report by the Justice Department's inspector general.

The report is a follow-up to an audit by the inspector general a year ago that found the FBI demanded personal data on people from banks, telephone and Internet providers and credit bureaus without official authorization and in non-emergency circumstances between 2003 and 2005.

Mueller, noting senators' concerns about Americans' civil and privacy rights, said the new report "will identify issues similar to those in the report issued last March." The similarities, he said, are because the time period of the two studies "predates the reforms we now have in place."

They'll do it right this time. For reals!

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Tit for tat ...

White House FBI files controversy

Oh how selective your indignation continues to be.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Who wants to read a positive article about Pakistan?

Here's one about a newly elected guy from the NorthWestern frontier region . A secular guy who doesn't threaten us.

I only wish we had the foresight to help folks like this.

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Well, what do you know ...

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Technology

will certainly advance, and personally I could not care less as I neither did or am planning to use any of my firearms in an illegal manner. Besides matching a gun to a bullet found at a crime scene is not the same as putting that gun in someone's hand.

Sic semper tyrannis

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What is your opinion on microstamping?

That's where I really think this is headed. Mind you, there will be ways around it. Buy an old gun.

But what are your view of the right wrong of such an approach?

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Generally against it because of practical considerations ...

The controversy section of the Wikipedia article on the topic provides a decent overview of the issues, pro or con.

Personally, I am not rabidly anti-microstamping but like so many gun control initiatives I have no doubt that it will only create hassle for manufacturers, dealers, and owners and drive up prices.  I also doubt that it will ever be a significant benefit to law enforcement since (a) it is trivially defeated, and (b) it can actually be exploited by criminals to mislead or misdirect investigators.

On point (a) the stamps are easily removed from the weapons with a file ... just like serial numbers.

On point (b) obfuscating a crime scene would be as easy as collecting spent brass at a gun range and leaving cases with a variety of microstamps lying about, thus creating many false leads and hassles for innocent gun owners.  The more nefarious criminal might even use the micro-stamping to frame some one by using a counterfeit set of stamps during a crime and then replacing the original parts on their weapon.  In this way they could actually use the microstampiing to introduce reasonable doubt that they committed the crime. 

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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That's a very balanced response.

I'm slightly surprised, but I guess shouldn't be. At least you are consistent.

Myself....I don't like it but would accept it. If I really wanted to do something that I didn't want evidence, I'd just buy a pre-microstamping gun that was in good shape. They'll be around for eons.

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smearing Obama

I think that the Republican " dirty tricks " dept .may have been responsible for the smearing of Obama ( Muslim garb etc ) and blaming it on Hillary ... hence a two-fer,,, smear him,,,, blame her ... do not misunderestimate Rovian tactics..... .On the other hand , he does have to be able to counter attacks that come from where ever they come from , high minded speeches will not do every time.
And again today , an old gentleman said to me , "he took oath on the Koran , I could never vote for him " ...so the dirt sticks in some cases.

sligowoman

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Good post (nt)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Except for the facts that ...

1) Drudge said he got the photo from a Clinton staffer.

2) When given multiple opportunities to do so the Clinton campaign declined to deny it.

And this somehow equates to Republican Dirty Tricks? Pfft.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Does that mean that

Republicans would prefer to run against Hillary, if they are the ones spreading this rumor?

It would have been easy for Hillary to unequiivocably squash the whisper campaign that Barack is a muslim, yet when she had the opportunity to do so, she hedged. Why?

Obviously it benefits her for the rumor to continue, so she parses words in her answer, turning the focus instead on herself, and how she has been the victim of smear campaigns so many times (because she is a woman). Nice double play.

The answer to the question, Hillary, when asked if Barack Obama is a muslim is a simple declarative, "No".

At some point people start to ask the question is how you play the game important, or is winning at all costs the goal. What is off limits?

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Iraq does take after us

BAGHDAD, March 3 -- Two former high-ranking Shiite government officials charged with kidnapping and killing scores of Sunnis were ordered released Monday after prosecutors dropped the case. The abrupt move renewed concerns about the willingness of Iraq's leaders to act against sectarianism and cast doubts on U.S. efforts to build an independent judiciary.

The collapse of the trial stunned American and Iraqi officials who had spent more than a year assembling the case, which they said included a wide array of evidence.

"This shows that the judicial system in Iraq is horribly broken," said a U.S. legal adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the case publicly. "And it sends a terrible signal: If you are Shia, then no worries; you can do whatever you want and nothing is going to happen to you."

Kind of like if you are a Halliburton employee- no consequences for the crimes of the connected.

bonus irony:

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's decision to allow the case to proceed to trial was considered a significant step toward proving his Shiite-led government could hold Shiite officials accountable for sectarian crimes. The case was heard at the multimillion-dollar Rule of Law Complex, protected and supervised by the United States, which has said that the development of an impartial justice system is essential to Iraq's long-term stability.

*snort*

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Or if you are Bill Clinton, don't forget him.

Kind of like if you are a Halliburton employee- no consequences for the crimes of the connected.

 

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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