The SC Stock Market Challenge

Promoted by Brendan (and timestamp changed) -- everyone get in on the fun!

There has been some interest in starting a stock market challenge over at Marketwatch . Of course, everyone who is interested in playing is welcome to join.

We do need to set some rules:

Starting cash amount [$100,000]:
Public portfolios [y]:
Portfolio resets [n]:

and then if we're going to allow any advanced options (margin, shorts, stop loss orders, etc.). I think the defaults are fine and the advanced options are fine as well, but I'm open to suggestions.

Edit:

Game ID: swordscrossed
Game Name: Swords Crossed
Password: bernankerulez

The game starts on the 24th and ends on 3/25/09 -- the day I turn 25. Try to be signed up by the start. Everything was the default options as far as rules are concerned. Best of luck to everyone!

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Results

 

Players And Rank

Players 1-21 of 21

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Current Rank ↓

Nickname

Net Worth

 

Total Return

Transactions last 40 days

1

$128,032.79

 

+28.03%

0

2

$98,438.28

 

-1.56%

0

3

$85,129.95

 

-14.87%

0

4

$75,215.20

 

-24.78%

0

5

$74,583.50

 

-25.42%

0

6

$69,893.80

 

-30.11%

1

7

$69,669.75

 

-30.33%

0

8

$67,240.35

 

-32.76%

0

9

$61,787.66

 

-38.21%

1

10

$59,297.97

 

-40.70%

0

11

$58,560.90

 

-41.44%

0

12

$56,052.01

 

-43.95%

0

13

$52,931.41

 

-47.07%

0

14

$49,234.01

 

-50.77%

0

15

$48,557.09

 

-51.44%

0

16

$48,014.35

 

-51.99%

0

17

$40,954.19

 

-59.05%

0

18

$36,965.63

 

-63.03%

0

19

$31,484.53

 

-68.52%

0

20

-$10,109.94

 

-110.11%

0

21

-$24,606.40

 

-124.61%

1

 

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

…………

Forgot to look on 3/25/09

But I'll take today's results ;-)

5th place.

Not too shabby for a buy-and-hold type.   But losing nearly 30% of my investment is pretty awful.  Don't hire me as your broker.   

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

…………

Two days left

Don't hire me as your broker.

Don't think I'd hire you as a personal assistant, either. March 25th is still two days away! :)

I'm hoping for a last minute push that will get me out of the big losers crowd that lost more than half their money, but I'm not counting on it! :(

 

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

………… parent

I know!

I've been doing that all day!   Grrrrrr

Might be my two day workweek ;-)  I tend to lose track of the days.

 

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

………… parent

6th place

Only 1 person's holdings at the end was more than it was at the start.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

………… parent

Bank error in your favor

Lots of crazy errors on VSE this weekend. Ender has more than a 6000% return this week! (Yes, that's percent, not dollars.) Sell! Sell!

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

…………

#5

On the move up, go Coke go.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

…………

I've been gambling like crazy

up and down - first shorting a banking stock at the wrong time, losing 60k, then covering it, and buying the same damn stock with the remaining money and jumping back up as the banking stocks are moving up.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

I just closed out my short and went long some risky stocks

Hope the bailout works!

………… parent

I am a bit pissed

why is Dow going down???

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Sorry, I think it must be my 401K ...

every time it looks to be heading into positive territory cost basis wise Wall Street conspires to take all my money. :(

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

………… parent

I feel your pain

Looks like my retirement is going to be all about Kraft mac n cheese, not Filet Mignon :-(  I was beating the market for awhile, but now I'm solidly down on the year.

………… parent

sorry man

That sucks :(

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

I <3 SKF

After playing the DBO card, I decided to get off that bus and on the SKF train.

Its up about 18% as of this posting. :-)

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

…………

Hey!

Rode the XM-Siruus wave to the top. Now, time to get rid of it.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

…………

Plus $35k yesterday

Yay airline rebound as oil finally falls. Now if the financial sector would keep cautiously creeping upward (thanks Fed!) we'll be back in business.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

Week's return:+67.27%

That breeze you felt was me racing past from the bottom to the top.

BG, you better look out!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

MER blows it!

All ur base are belong to Meredith Whitney! :^)

………… parent

Yeah, you just wait

I'm still holding ultra shorts (2:1 leverage) in the DJIA and S&P 500, not to mention my oil fund.

I won't be selling those for awhile. I'm still willing to bet on a DJIA under 9000 before Bush leaves office.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

I just picked up....

....two near-the-money calls apiece on SKF & SRS today, IRL. Fall expiries. I'm thinking suckers'-rally. KRE might be something to look at. No leverage but better exposure to the regionals, many of which I think are zombie-banks.

………… parent

Awsome news!!!!!

As a group, we're currently up a solid 1.23% to date, in a bear market!

I thinking hedge fund! Swords Crossed Securities

…………

dude...

More like Bernard Guerrero Securities!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

No, no!

Swords Crossed Securities has the added benefit of sounding a great deal like the Swordblade Bank, which was deeply enmeshed in the South Seas Bubble. I'm smelling untold riches and epic debacle all rolled up into one!

………… parent

Not me

I'm currently riding the roller coaster -- up 8 percent one day, down 10 percent the next. Eventually I'll throw up and get off the ride.

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

FWIW

I just put in order for some FRE and FNM, and purchased a couple of Aug calls IRL. This is starting to look silly. Paulson would eat his left nut before he nationalized anything, much less these two. And they still have the Fed window.

Might not pay off, of course, but I think I have some fat to gamble with.

………… parent

hehehe sounds good

I guess you would know better :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Always look on the bright side of life!

Doo doo, doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo!

Cheer up guys, the markets bound to come back sooner or later.

…………

grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

heheheheh

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

It looks like GoRight

got jobbed by the VSE game -- three of his stocks zeroed out.

In other news, the bloodbath skymutt is taking on GM makes my investment in Jet Blue look positively inspired =P

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

I'm riding that puppy down to zero!

Getting killed on it in real life too.  I was "early" on GM, as the traders say :-p

………… parent

Ouch! That would have hurt!

I assume some kind of reporting glitch, though, as these are all mutual funds which seem to actually still have value on the market if you follow the links to their stats. None of them looks good, though.

That's what I get for picking a mutual fund that tries to follow the S&P500. Those losers at S&P don't know squat. They drove things straight into the ground, I guess.

Still, I think I'll hold pat on those, he he, I've got faith in a come back.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

………… parent

I don't know GoRight

Looks to me like you're getting your butt kicked by a bunch of socialists.

I thought you Republican types were supposed to be business experts. :)

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

Republican-types are business experts?

Dow Jones on 1/20/1993:

3241.96

Dow Jones on 1/20/2001:

10587.59

Dow Jones at the end of yesterday:

11442.59

Translation:

Every $1 you put into the market the day Clinton was inaugarated, turned into $3.27 by the day he left office.

Every $1 you put into the market the day Bush was inaugarated, has turned into just $1.08 today.

That's the Republican "business expertise"?

No thanks.

I survived the Bush Administration

………… parent

Small matter of an equities bubble.....

....in there somewhere in the nineties. I have a vague recollection of some such. :^)

Also, I'm kicking ass and I'd say I'm most closely analogous to the "Ghengis Khan" wing of the GOP, despite our religious differences.

………… parent

The game has a long way to go

You can make money shorting the banks, financials and homebuilders for just so long. :)

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

Then you....

....go long the banks, financials and homebuilders! :^)

As an aside, I have shorts on the airlines in there, too. Once the industry rationalizes and adjusts to oil in the 80-110 range (which I figure is where we'll end up), I see potential there. I don't know if it's going to happen in the game's time-frame, though. Same for the financials and HBs, though it pains me to say so.

………… parent

Back in the black on Jet Blue!

Now, how many thousands of dollars profit should I hold out for?

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

LOL! - nt

………… parent

Whatever =/

It hit $4.00 today, it'll probably hit $4.20 tomorrow =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

Forget a new world, you need.....

....a new stock. Put aside the fact that I agree with you that oil is overdone. Most of these guys can't make money at $100/bbl; how is anything other than an utter collapse in oil prices going to help them? And if such a collapse does come about, doesn't it imply a massive slow-down of the sort that would kill their business, anyway?

………… parent

Well, they have

a better financial outlook than some of the old large airlines because they don't have the same overhead from pensions and union pressures.

But continuing to cling to my "it's all smoke and mirrors" image of the stock market, I will insist that if oil drops significantly Jet Blue stock will go up regardless of whether Jet Blue's long-term outlook improves, because enough people don't trade on value they trade on perception =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

/me waits impatiently for oil to plummet

and loses tens of thousands of dollars in value in the meantime...

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

I figured out the hard way

that rather than wait for a trend to develop, it is better to get out and put that money to work in something else than it is to stay and wait on the trend.

I got burned more than once stubbornly refusing to give up on a stock I was sure was fixing to turn the corner.

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

Any day now!

You're probably right, but since it's fake money I'm gonna try to hit it mega rich instead of taking a loss and going back to slogging away for small gains.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

Today was Bargain Day on the market

Nothing better than picking up a stock at clearance-sale prices.

Anybody get any great buys today? I got back into Freeport-McMoran when it reached 117.

qui tacet consentire

…………

no...

I need to sell all the crap I got so I can go into better sectors and pick up those bargains :) Most of my stuff seems overpriced.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Getting HAMMERED on my huge GM play

I've tried to pick a bottom in the hated U.S. auto industry and it's not paying off today. I've bet the farm on GM... I'm either gonna win this contest or finish dead last, and the latter seems more likely at the moment.

I'm still on the wait list for my Chevy Volt though. I'm just hoping that GM gets the technology right this time around, because if they don't, they could be facing bankruptcy. My research leads me to believe that Ford is even further behind in gas-saving technology and could be in even more trouble than GM over the next five years.

…………

I hear ya

I went with a bunch of oil and gas related stocks and it's doing so so. And since that bubble can burst any time, I might be selling it all shortly and moving into a few different industries :)

But yeah, GM and Ford are risky bets. Sorry to see the mini-dive on it. Who knows, it might pickup by the end of the day.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

More GM pain today

The rating agencies said bad things about the U.S. automaker's debt today, and of course GM shed another buck.  Do they not care that I've backed up tje truck and loaded up on GM???

Ah well, I'm committed now, sinking or swimming with it.  It's got like 9 months to turn around... 

………… parent

Could be worse

Did you see what happened to Ford today?

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

Ford and GM are bouncing back a bit today

I'm still getting crushed on the trade, mind you.  In real life, I picked up a thousand shares of GM @13.29... Granted that they don't have a good product mix right now and nobody can afford a new car anyway, but they are making the right investments in R&D right now, so in the next recovery 2 or 3 years down the line, GM's going to have plug-in electric vehicles for sale and they are going to go like hotcakes.  They'll be built by workers under the new union contract, which allows GM to be more competitive with the imports on a cost basis.  Finally, economic nationalism is going to increase during this rough economic patch we're heading into, especially when unemployment starts spiking, and people are going to buy domestic autos more.

 

………… parent

Yikes.

Still hanging on? This looks like overkill on Goldman's part, GM was clearly already in a world of hurt. I'm considering taking it as a contrarian signal to buy.

………… parent

If GM can get the Volt out soon

It'll sure help with the fall off in the truck & SUV market.

………… parent

I've been looking at the big Integrated oils...

Exxon, PetroChina, BP, Shell, PetroBras, Chevron, etc... I don't understand why they aren't doing better since it seems like oil approaching $150/barrel would be a dream scenario for them.  Exxon is absolutely stuck in the mud at around $88, and I don't see any correlation between it's price and the price of oil recently.  Like today: the price of oil is up, Exxon is down.  I don't get it.

………… parent

I think part of it is that....

....the market is discounting the idea that they'll have $150/barrel for very long. It will result in demand destruction or, for the unlucky players with too much exposure to bad places, expropriation or shut-downs. They may also be discounting a good chunk of the recent run-up as speculation, too.

Also, some players are hamstrung by domestic price caps, like PTR.

………… parent

Yeah that's what Jim Cramer thinks

I happened to catch the beginning of "Mad Money" they day I posted this question, and he addressed this exact issue, and his answer was basically yours.  I mean I know that the drillers are having a field day charging thru the roof, but it seems like even at $75 a barrel there's plenty of cash generated to please everyone.  They must be worried that oil is going to really tank.  Maybe they also think that the Democrats are going to slap a windfall tax on them if they earn more than they do now. 

………… parent

I'm scared to be on the same side as Cramer. :^)

The last time that happened, I got my ass handed to me on a silver platter.

………… parent

I am not sure

if the price of oil translates into direct profits for them... Does it? I don't know much about it.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Oil!

Topping out of a speculative bubble, the start of another leg up, or both? :^)

…………

on the one hand I want to make some money

on my virtual stuff, but on the other I would prefer the oil would go down :) I think it's almost time to get out of it though.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

unbelievable crap...

I short a stock before 9:30... The stock stays at -$0.05 most of the morning. The trade doesn't go through the whole day and I stop paying attention to it. Then finally I am tired of it and cancel the trade - as soon as I cancel it, my short goes through and I get the stock. Apparently the stock went down a large amount through the day and because the trade is stuck until you cancel it I was robbed!!! :)

Of course I ended up getting it at the lowest point... whooppie!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

…………

Yeah

The game has about a 50% success rate at actually executing trades in a timely fashion. It's getting pretty ridiculous.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

the key to getting a timely trade

might be to try canceling it after a few...

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Yeah, well...

I tried to cash in on my successful BSC short on Friday, at 10.10. It did trade at 10.10 a few minutes after I placed the trade , but the trade did not go through.

Then it closed at 10.20 and today it's worth 10.30 or something. I can still make money (I shorted at 10.60), but I'm kind of annoyed considering that the game also screwed up the ORCL purchase of BEAS.

By the way, as I've had no response, my plan is to whittle down the difference by selling the same quantity of shares low and buying high over a few days. I think losing money should be easier than making it, but I've never tried to do it on purpose before. We'll see what happens.

………… parent

Good money after bad

There's this strategy for casino games of doubling your bet every time you lose, so that in theory eventually you recoup your losses plus a small gain. As the link explains, it's not nearly as clever as it seems at first glance, and one would think that such an approach would be even less attractive when it comes to stocks, since presumably past performance really is correlated with future trends rather than being random (in the short term, anyway).

Nevertheless, that's my preferred "strategy," and I find it to be reasonably effective given the large bankroll we have to play with. When a stock I hold drops in value I am more likely to buy double what I hold than to sell it, and wait for the rebound. Now I only need it to go up half as much to break even =)

I wouldn't do this with real money but like I said it seems to work ok if one has minimal interest in conducting deep research into specific companies. The little numbers go up and down and if they go up you sell and if they go down you buy more (assuming long positions) -- what's not to like?!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

Martingales are not a plan. :^)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_%28betting_system%29

They only work under two circumstances, one very theoretical and the other very real but requiring some of what you seek to avoid:

A) You have effectively infinitely large pockets. I don't think 100K over 1 year counts.

B) There are underlying trends or cycles in the market or bet you're playing. In that case, either a martingale or anti-martingale might work, depending on whether the effect is a regression-to-the-mean or some kind of trend (higher highs or lower lows). But trends and/or regression-to-the-mean mean that you have to have some idea of the driving force, whether it be fundamentals or as simple as trend-following/momentum.

………… parent

But regression to the mean seems highly likely

for most of these cases, where the drop in value is connected to some outside force that is expected to stabilize. For example, Yahoo tanked because Microsoft withdrew the purchase offer, but Yahoo's stock before that wasn't inflated due to the pending offer by nearly the amount that it fell. So it should rebound once everyone calms down.

Ok, so that's cheating because I'm trying to use knowledge of the companies involved, but my impression is that if I dug under the surface for most of these sharp swings I'd uncover fundamental factors that favor a rebound.

Like I said, I wouldn't do it with real money =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

More errors? Help!

Hey everyone.

In all honesty, I have such limited understanding of the stock market that I am surprised I am still in the green. I have a few Q's for anyone who wishes to give a short tutorial:

I own 59 shares of RDS.B (Royal Dutch Shell). Every time I attempt to sell it, I get this message:

You are trying to sell 59 shares of RDS .B, but you are only holding 59.0000 shares and already have pending sales of 59.0000 shares.

This message comes up even if I attempt to sell one share. It's been stuck like that for three days now. WTF?

Next question: what is 'Sell Short' (I saw 'stopping short on Seinfeld once) and 'Buy to Cover'? These are options beyond the basic 'buy' and 'sell' transactions.

Update: I went into 'Orders' and I noticed my sale of RDS.B was still pending (after three days). I cancelled the order. We will see if that fixes the stalled transaction.

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

…………

Pending orders

Sometimes the game just seems to choke and not execute an order for whatever reason. If you cancel it, that usually makes it go through, at least it works for me.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Sell short

means you think the stock is going to decrease in value, so you "sell short" it to someone else (the computer in our game) at the current price and then later when it falls you "buy to cover" to complete the transaction. Basically it's the opposite of buying low and then selling when the stock value gets high.

I think, anyway =) There are additional more complicated options not available in the game... lots of ways to lose money in real life.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

Pretty much

Technically, I believe when you sell short, you borrow shares from someone to sell to someone else. Then you have to cover your position (buy to cover) by paying the guy you borrowed from whenever you're ready to do so.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

The technical term....

...is hypothecation.

………… parent

I'm still confused

When would you need to do that and what is the benefit?

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

………… parent

you benefit

I think Walmart is about to go down because they suck.

selling short

I borrow 100 shares of Walmart that are currently selling at 1$ per share.

I sell 100 shares for $100 total

Walmart shares subsequently drop to 50cents per share

buying to cover

Now I want to make my profit and return the shares that I borrowed.

I buy back the 100 shares which now only cost me $50 total.

I return the shares and keep the $50 I made.

I benefit :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

That was a much better explanation

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

thanks

I tried to make it simple :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Example

Basically you short when you think a stock will go down and buy to cover when you think it has hit about the lowest it will hit in a given time (a local minimum for us math geeks).

For instance, right now I'm shorting Wachovia Bank and Freddie Mac. I essentially borrowed shares from someone and already sold them at $29.41 and $26.19, respectively (all numbers will be quoted respectively from here on out). Right now those same shares are trading $29.89 and $26.75. So if I paid off the guy I borrowed the shares from, I'd lose $.48 and $.56 per share because I have to pay the current market prices. Paying the borrowee (that isn't a word, is it) is called "buying to cover" or "covering one's position". If those shared had gone down I'd realize a profit because the shares were worth more when I sold them than when I covered my position.

This is in contrast to a long position (the default) where you buy a stock at a relatively low price and hope it rises in value so that you can sell it then.

It was confusing for me at first, but Wikipedia and various finance websites helped. Hopefully, my example wasn't too confusing. :-)
It's a complicated topic, for sure.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Wacky Wachovia and FRE?

I'm shocked. While all the financials are probably overvalued to some extent at the moment, I can think of much crappier stuff off the top of my head that is still trading at much more inflated values. I think the big names are closer to fair value by mere virtue of being closely watched by a lot of people.

The regional banks, OTOH....

………… parent

Funny you say that

since today FRE is down over 5% and WB down about 1%

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Yeah, but then FNM announces...

....things are worse than expected and FRE, miracle of miracles, is up 7+%! Like I said, I might not disagree with the case that they're overvalued, but it seems like there's easier money out there, particularly given that VSE let's you short stuff that is otherwise nearly impossible to borrow IRL.

OTOH, I just saw this: http://acrossthecurve.com/

If agency spreads are widening significantly, I suspect todays melt-up in the GSE's and friends is not long for this world.

………… parent

It's volatile

I'm hurting pretty bad lately. I went from top 3 to very close to bottom.

At least my small investment in TAP is doing well. I figured bad economy = more people on the sauce. Up 7%!

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

You convinced me.

Or maybe it was the agency spreads. Or maybe all this bottom calling on CNBC. Anyway, I put in a small short on FRE. I'd still rather play the crappier banks for most of it, but it can't hurt me too much even if Mudd is being overly pessimistic about the GSEs and housing.

………… parent

How ironic

I'm about ready to cover. :-)

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Yeah, turned out to be a day-trade......

.....for me, too. I wouldn't mind re-entering the short if it pops a little, though. The key's the wave of alt-A trouble still coming. It doesn't impact the GSE's directly, but it should keep up pressure on housing (and therefore mortagegs) in general.

………… parent

P.S.

Only two more weeksleft in the semester, then I can hopefully find time to jibber-jabber with you all. :-)

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

………… parent

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

I see Marcus A. put in a stellar performance today, with a 16%+ one-day gain. Alas, I can't make heads or tails of it. It looked like his last purchase of BEAS was a few days ago. Did I miss something?

…………

Sorry guys...

I had a bearish position, unlike most of you, so I did a couple of trades to obtain essentially an interest rate, as if I were buying bonds.

One of these was BEAS, which Oracle bought a couple of days ago for 19.375 per share. I'd picked it up at around 19.14 and then some more around 19. It dropped the last week as BEA executives bought their options and then sold.

Had VSF worked correctly, I should have seen $19.375 per share replaced for my BEAS stock. Instead it was stuck at 19.01 the first day, and then replaced with ORCL. This is odd because it was an all-cash deal.

I sent some feedback to get them to fix this, but so far nothing, or their "fix" was to give me the ORCL stock.

Overall my account should be at around 105K right now, as planned, and not 119. If this persists one more day I'll send feedback again till they fix it. I cannot sell ORCL at 19.375, which is what I would like to do, because it's trading well above that.

I'll keep you posted.

………… parent

I thought you were....

...basically looking for risk-free arbitrages (or as close as you can get to risk free in equities), which is why I was so shocked to see the 16%+ in one day. You don't strike me as the "bet it all on the red 7" type.

My immediate thought was to e-mail David Faber and DealBook and berate them for letting that particular little gem get by their radar screens. :^)

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Yeah, well...

I was. I figured a 3 to 5% monthly yield ain't exactly peanuts and capital preservation was a good strategy. The game lasts a year and some of the hotshots would likely go down in flames.

I missed the changing mood. Still, I do expect some short-term profit taking with the next options expiration week at the latest. But I've got to say I'm feeling a bit less bearish. My next round might be a bit more aggressive.

Broadly, I'm impressed. Not one person out of 20 is losing a dime right now. The market has been kind, but still it's a good performance. Consider that some people have dropped thousands in trade fees as well.

Sent another feedback message, but nothing. I'll fix it somehow.

………… parent

Say, are you the guy....

....posting under the "Marcus Aurelius" handle over at Calculated Risk? He sounds somewhat more fanatically bearish than I'm sensing from your trades and risk management, but I could be wrong.

"Broadly, I'm impressed. Not one person out of 20 is losing a dime right now."

Ha! We should start up a hedge fund. Pretty decent coverage of the techs and financials. Now we just need somebody to watch manufacturing, commodities and biotech/pharma.

………… parent

No, I'm not.

Marcus Aurelius was a Roman emperor.

I'm just M.

No idea who that guy is. I don't frequent the site.

I'd hold on the hedge fund for a bit. Still early.

I see my BSC short has worked yet again. I have no idea why they've been pricing it above the agreed purchase value (do the math with JPM). What do they expect?

Anyway, it will free up some buying power while I've got most of it stuck with Oracle. Still no response. Any luck and it will drop to the 19.40 range and I can get rid of it so we are all square. I can't promise I'll sell at exactly 19.38, but I'll try.

I don't mind the specialization we see here. You should trade in what you understand, at least roughly. Otherwise you are only gambling. Nothing wrong with that, if you like that, but I've never seen it work over time.

………… parent

re: BSC

Yeah, at $2 I was betting Lewis and the other shareholders were going to balk, particularly given the shoddy overnight way the original deal was put together. At $10, and after the a bunch of the big guys have caved, I find it highly unlikely.

………… parent

I was bearish as well

Actually, I was pretty bearish myself, but I got caught in the recent uptick. I've done quite poorly in the last few weeks.

You win some; you lose some.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

No worries

Thanks for explaining.

In real life you should take the money and run =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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not only that

but it looks like BEAS final for the day is 19.01 and not 20.85 as it shows in his portfolio... Weird. Might be a screw up in the system.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

If you click on the BEAS link

it goes to Oracle, which did finish at 20.85.

I call shenanigans!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

Ok, I'm slow...

Oracle acquired BEA Systems and completed the takeover yesterday.

Can you people who actually trade explain what happens to the stock when a company ceases to exist?

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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I believe it depends upon the details of the takeover

but I might be wrong.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Ender

Nicely done on the Ford call, sir.

…………

thank you

I did not expect these news myself...

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Bah

I picked a bad time to short them.

Who would have figured you'd lose money betting against US auto companies? I still don't like their long-term outlook...

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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I've shorted them before...

But this time I saw that their earnings were coming up and thought... what if it's better than expected. Lucked out :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Average net worth for today is $108,528.29.

Not bad for less than a month. Are you hot dogs wishing this was real money yet?

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

…………

The Skymutt Model Portfolio real money account...

...closely tracks the skymutt play money account, because I'm making similar trades in both accounts.  So while I'm not beating a few of the hotshot daytraders on SwordsCrossed, I'm beating the market :-)

………… parent

Heh

If it were real money, I probably would have cashed out on day one and stuck it in a high-yield CD or something. Wouldn't have anywhere near this outrageous return rate that I am currently enjoying, but I'd be saving a ton of money on the medical bills that would inevitably result from the constant stress of worrying what the market is going to do next!

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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Exactly

Right, if this was real money, I'd have paid off all my debts and put the rest into government bonds or something.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Today's return: +11.16%

Hooray for Google!

In somewhat related news, *everyone* is positive overall at the moment. Half the players are over 8% up.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

nice

wish i hadn't sold my google shares 2 days ago

………… parent

Good day for the stock market

Not sure why, last I heard oil was going through the roof. Anyone paying attention know what's going on? What does "upbeat earnings news" really mean, and why would it drive the whole market up if a few companies outperformed expectations?

We have 6 people more than 10% up, led by tophat who has moved from last to first, and only a few in the red (where I maintain my hold on last place... but look out, AMN jumped like $8/share today!).

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

Current average net worth = $107,447.01

A question for all you zero sum gamers out there, whose little children are we raping here?  I'm just curious.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

…………

Tell us what you really think...

Raping? Take it easy...

Economics/stocks/etc. isn't zero-sum, but it's not infinite sum either.

Our mutual friend Barney Frank said on Real Time that in the long run, economics isn't zero-sum but that Keynes also said that in the long run we're all dead. He then mentioned that at any given point in time, it is zero sum. Wages can always be increased to the point that an employer has exhausted his funds. Any funds left over at the end of the day, month, year, etc. can necessarily be redistributed.

If you want to debate this further, I'd suggest doing so in an open thread so that we don't clutter this thread any more than it needs to be.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Not really looking to debate this ...

Raping? Take it easy...

 so much as I am looking to have the zero summers explain who is getting abused here.

Raping? Take it easy...

Meh, it's their terminology, not mine.  Rape?  Screw?  Little guy is expected to bend over for?  These are all the same thing and that's exactly how they portray anyone who manages to accumulate any wealth (i.e. increases their net worth).  Or am I wrong about their rhetoric?

As a group we are obviously "winners" so far, so by their logic someone else has just been screwed/raped/bent over to pay for these gains. 

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Wow, Ender made $14,000 so far today

and SpinDoctor (from the Forvm) is up $10,000 on the day. For perspective, so far I'm third on the day (although last overall) with $1,750.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

I knew I shoulda sold it all

last night... Gonna lose my shirt today.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

...and today as well...

Damn, you're on a serious roller coaster!  -$15k+ in like 2 days... weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

 

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heh and might continue today

Since I lost so much, I don't feel like cutting my losses and selling - want to see if it will come back some :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Bad luck :-(

Yuck.

You really took a big hit!

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

hehe

you live by the sword...

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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From First to Worst?

Stop digging! You've reached the bottom! Welcome to the lower third with the rest of us.

Don't worry. It's a long way to go, I bet you're just prepping us for your Atlanta-Braves style worst to first run for the top.

I've got my eye on you.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

………… parent

From plus 20 grand to minus 10 in a few days, ouch

Welcome to last place, I'm happy to leave! If only temporarily...

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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wow yeah he really caught that PSTI...

I caught the WaMu today and hope it stays up!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Good choice

That was a smart buy. I was thinking of shorting it. Since I already tried to do that with GOOG, I decided against it.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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that thing has been volatile like crazy

I keep hoping for a turnaround in housing and lending... Would be a nice ride for those stocks.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Damn Ender!

You considered doing this for a living?  I think you've got the knack for it!

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heh I don't think so

Just a bit of luck for now. Can just as easily go the other way.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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He's cheating

You're not allowed to buy cheap stocks. They go up $1, which doubles your money. :-)

I'm glad he's doing well, but he may want to beware that cheap stocks will fall just as quickly.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

don't be a playa hata... :)

I did some serious research. hehehe

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Good day for the stock market

Pretty much everyone is doing well overall too, except me =)

Just think if we had pooled some cash and invested it as a community, we'd be getting a nice little return so far. Especially if I were omitted from the team deciding how to invest it.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

hey woodsman

I bought the NCEN stock because I didn't think you should be the only one reaping the benefits from that company. Why did you pick it? :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

…………

It was a gut feeling :)

Dude, 95 trades? Are you day trading? :)

Sic semper tyrannis

………… parent

maybe in the first few days :)

Now I just like to clear dead weights here and there.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Today's average net worth = $100,424.17

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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yeah, not too hot :)

dude, create that other account you wanted to, so you can do some fun day trades.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

I keep betting on the downtrodden stox

Let's see how the makers of Vytorin fare today...

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

…………

Wow Brendan-- tough luck on the Ameron trade today!

Looks like you got caught trying to ride the momentum on that one... It's gotta smart when you get in at the very top and then the stock immediately tanks 6% in an hour!

Did you buy South Florida condos in 2006 as well?

;-)

 

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Haha

I was on tilt... google and oracle sliding, I figured I'd recoup it all with a quick strike, then sell after it rose another few dollars.

Serves me right. But looking at the long term I figure I'll at least get even, I bought low in a big-picture sense. Never one to learn my lesson and walk away, I'm buying 200 more shares now that they're even cheaper!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

Wow, Brendan.

26 trades and almost $8,000 in the hole.  Ookpik, Ender, and stinerman appreciate your support, I am sure!  He he.

I'm not winning any awards but I am at least still beating the stuffed mattress strategy, and for the time being my more than skymutt!  :) 

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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I haven't looked but I know I'm doing crappy

I'm kinda frozen in a couple value trap stocks.  Plus I have no idea whether the market goes up or down from here in the short term, so I'm not doing any trading at the moment.

What I need is for the government to start dropping those rebate checks out of helicopters so that everybody can buy a BowFlex or a StairMaster and boost my NLS.

It's a long contest, and I'm just biding my time, waiting to make my move when the time is right :-) 

………… parent

I was 11 grand down before the day started

so I'm actually having a great day relative to last week!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

Yes,

you are surpassing everyone's daily total by a far margin. A few more days like this and you could not only emerge from your hole, you could dominate.

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

………… parent

Hehe understand totally

I've stubbornly thrown good money after bad a few times myself ;-)  And if these hotshot traders like Ender and Spiritual and stinerman keep being blessed, we're all gonna have to start trading around more to keep pace...

………… parent

this game is a lot of fun

up and down rollercoasters - but if I was playing like this without any research with real money, I woulda had a heart attack by now.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

…………

You did well today, though.

You made a good profit today! 7% last I checked.

My shorts on Goldman Sachs and Fannie Mae are paying off pretty well. For just guessing, I'd say I'm doing relatively well.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

yeah a bunch of quick trades

seesawing and lucked out. Mostly I scan the current news on the companies, look at most active, and check their history. A lot of guessing.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Wow 61 trades already!

Good job, though.   It's really a good market to be doing a lot of trading, with 100 point moves up/down just about every day.

 

………… parent

I have the second-most trades

and dropped $5,000 today.

Maybe, just maybe, I'm making the wrong trades =)

But I like my long-term prospects!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

………… parent

News flow will kill ya, give ya heartburn if not heart attack

For instance, one of the companies I own fired its CEO last night... I guess i should feel lucky that the stock's only down like 3%...

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uh oh-- look out for quaoar!

Quaoar has a whole 50 shares of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts at $3 a share... if Krispy Kreme doubles to $6, quaoar will show a profit of a whole $150!

Bold move, quaoar!

;-) 

…………

It was a sentimental pick

qui tacet consentire

………… parent

hehe Q is just playing it safe

for the time being :) And he probably likes the sweet delicious donuts.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

………… parent

Today's average net worth = $100,487.81

Is our pie growing or are we taking food out of the mouths of the little children?

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

…………

Depends on your definition

By writing this comment, I'm taking food out of the mouths of children because I'm spending time doing the former instead of doing the latter.

And as I've said many times about this, the fact that we have more and everyone else has the same doesn't really hurt anyone else in the long run, but it is immoral. In 2 days, I've made more money in speculation than than I made IRL last year in wages. Frankly, thats criminally ridiculous. Doing physical labor deserves more compensation than "moving money around in circles".

This by no means implies I feel the same way about investors. People who invest in companies help create jobs by raising capital. I don't have much of a problem with this sort of "work" because it is necessary (but not as necessary as many think) for the economy.

To discourage speculation and increase the importance of labor, I think that taxes should be cut across the board on labor, but increased on short-term capital gains. A very small sales tax on stock transactions would be advisable as well.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Mmm... pie.

So after day two, I think I have learned enough to realize that I have no clue how the stock market works. And by "works" I mean, how does it actually help the companies?

See, I picked a bunch of stocks from companies that I thought were doing really cool things that I would like to see succeed. But now I am wondering, how does me buying stock from some other guy who bought it, help in any way the company that originally sold the stock? Turns out it seems to have helped me, since I've earned big (but alas, virtual) bucks in a couple of days, but is Ascent Solar Technologies any better off because of what I have done? I don't really see how. Can anyone explain that to me?

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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Thanks for all the replies below

I guess, once I have $100,000 in real money to wave around, I'll invest directly in companies that are doing good things. Screw stocks, unless I need to make more money!

For our simulation game, though, I think I will stick with what I'm doing - picking smallish companies that look like they are doing things that might take off and be really important. High risk I suppose, but for now it is working. My two solar energy companies are big winners so far!

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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Spiritual Lefty: How Stock Market Helps Companies

Basically, by buying stocks you are helping finance the company. You own a share (albeit small) portion of the company. The company basically gets money from you to use as working capital to grow the companies' net worth.

How? You may ask "When I just bought it from someone else who already bought it?"

Well, the thing is you most likely paid more than that person. If a company initially issues the stock at $20/share, then they issue a million shares, they gave you a piece of paper and you gave them $20. But then they use that $20 million to pay for the cost of running their business, then they turn a revenue about $40 million. Your $20 share may now become worth $25 in the eyes of someone else and they will try to convince you of this (why the stock goes up). Sometimes it can go down. You can sell it to them or not.

One other thing to consider--watching a day-to-day up and down movement of a particular company isn't productive. It's the long term performance that drives the price. Sometimes the market gurus overlook/undervalue a stock and sometimes they overvalue it, which can affect short-term price.

Bottom line, stick with companies with established track records or small companies that have little debt and a strong potential brand and you should be fine over the long run.

I tried to keep this short and hope I didn't confuse you too much :-)

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

………… parent

Thanks for trying!

But I'm not really sure I get your point. I understand that the value of the stock might go up, and I see how that makes money for the people buying and selling the stock. But I still don't see how that helps the issuing company.

I get that the company can affect the value of the stock, but I don't get how the reverse can happen.

My underlying question is this: Were I to choose to buy stock in a company that I think is doing good things, rather than a company I dislike, am I having any effect whatsoever on promoting business practices I like, or am I just fooling myself?

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

………… parent

The way I see it

It's essentially speculation until dividends are paid.

Unless you have a rather large share of the corporation, you don't really have any say in its day to day operations.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

You help a company in several ways with a stock purchase

Were I to choose to buy stock in a company that I think is doing good
things, rather than a company I dislike, am I having any effect
whatsoever on promoting business practices I like, or am I just fooling
myself?

Your stock purchase can help a company in a number of ways:

1. Companies often own shares of their own stock, called treasury stock . Your pruchase helped support the price of the stock, and thus supported the value of any treasury stock that the company has.

2. Companies often raise capital thru secondary stock offerings , whereby a company raises cash for business purposes by creating and selling new shares of stock.  By supporting the price of the stock through your purchase, you have supported the company's ability to raise money for future expansion, either organic or thru acquisition, via the secondary market.

3. Companies often compensate employees thru stock and/or stock options.  By supporting the stock price through your purchase, you help compensate the human capital of the company, helping retention rates and recruiting, and reducing cash expenses for labor. 

4. You support the investment decision of other shareholders who are also supporting the company in ways 1 thru 3. 

 

 

 

………… parent

#3 is a good one I didn't think of...

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

………… parent

IPOs vs NYSE in 100 normal words or less ;}

Unless you're buying "new" stock directly from the company (e.g. IPO's, dividend reinvestment plans, scheduled purchase plans, etc) your assessment is correct -- you are buying stock that somebody else bought from the company. Therefore your purchase enriches the seller, not the company directly.

For example, you can buy Exxon via the NYSE (usually somebody else's shares -- but only your broker knows for sure ;}) or via Exxon's trustee, in which case you are buying "new" shares and enriching Exxon.

If it bothers you in real life (not in our game) I assume you can direct your broker accordingly.

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

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well also

you buying the stock from whomever raises the value of the stock - the more people buy, the higher the price which in turn gives the company more available capital as their own shares go up in price.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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But only if they sell them ;}

See, it's really hard to do this in a 100 words or less....

The stock market is not a simple beast. And as far as Spiritual Lefty's question, my take is that moralistic ethics and the stock market just don't mix too well. Unless you can afford a broker who can make sure your cash never touches that which you despise.

And, giving this another thought, there are probably ways within the arcane world of corporate financing for the increased stock value itself to be used to offset no-cost borrowing, so your original statement is probably accurate too within some frame of reference.

I was not a Finance major, obviously ;}

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

………… parent

I believe that PurpleFace is, of course, correct! :)

Bottom line: the company only directly receives cash (from the stock) when it issues new stock.

After that the price fluctuates and any increase/decrease in value goes to the seller.

The companies do get some intangible benefits from rising stock prices, so they have some incentive to keep their stock looking attractive. Market capitalization gives you bragging rights at times, and makes you look like a solid company.  This can help influence important business issues like partnerships, mergers, obtaining loans, etc.

A company may sometime buy back stock or split the stock to keep the stock trading in a favorable price range.

Also as PF points out, if your goal is to somhow help a company that you think is doing good things buying stock is not the approach for you.  Buying stock is not an altruistic activity, it is a selfish one from a motive perspective.  :) 

 

A digression: 

If a company needs to raise funds an alternative to issuing stock (which represents an ownership stake in the company itself) is to issue bonds instead (which do not include any ownership rights). Bonds are simply a promisary note in which the company agrees to pay interest at a specified rate for a specified term.  These bonds are only as good as the ability of the issuing company to make the required payments.  The risk is that they might default.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

………… parent

someone is starving

for sure!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Someone over at the Forvm asked about puts/calls

which AFAICT are not an option in this game... is that correct?

Does anyone else care? It might make the competition aspect more exciting.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

…………

They are not allowed...

I think it's just a straight-shot game. I'm not even sure how stock splits are addressed. But no calls/puts as far as I know.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

………… parent

Thanks

Maybe once we're all making >10%/year we'll move on to more complex games =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Does anyone know how the company hosting this uses

the data they gather from it? I am sure that they are analyzing all of the player's picks and doing something grand with it. I'm just curious if anyone knows any of the details.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

…………

Feel free to use my stock picks in real life :-)

What I'm doing in this contest is not all that dissimilar to what I'm doing in real life in the Skymutt Model Portfolio™ in my AmeriTrade account-- for instance,  I own Nautilus (NLS) and Nam Tai Electronics (NTE) in real life.  So, if I go bust in the contest, I'm probably going bust in real life also, although I imagine I'll take on even more risk in the contest.

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Nothing jumps out at me

Take a look at the user agreement if you want. The only thing I see in it is that if you post anything in the discussions, they get a non-exclusive license to your posts. That probably means they can use it in any number of data mining/aggregation techniques and sell that info to others.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

………… parent

Average net worth for the whole group is now: $99,717.86

Total transaction fees for the day = 73 * $9.95 = $726.35.  I think I see who is going to come out ahead in this game!  :)

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

…………

The house always wins! n/t

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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WTG Skymutt

It looks like skymutt cleaned up!

If you keep this up, I'll hire you as my broker ... once I've paid off most of my debts.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

…………

I put in a nice little short on Bear Stearns

It was trading $2.50 above JP Morgan's $10 bid on speculation of an even higher bid, AFTER JPMorgan had already raised the bid fivefold.  I thought that was a little rich.  I covered at $11.25 on 2000 shares for a quick $2500 gain :-)

It could all turn on me quickly-- If the market continues to rise, I'm toast, because I'm weighted short.

 

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Sticky thread?

I think maybe we should keep this thread open for talking smack. Perhaps we could put it in the "Special Topics" section to the right?

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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heh I'll see what I can do :) n/t

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Ha! Losers!

I just took a look at the standings and I am currently ranked #1! I'm using the name Ookpik there, by the way.

Since this is likely to be my only chance to say that, I'm taking advantage of it! 

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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It's a battle

for last place! Hah, I bet I win!

I'm in. I'm the typical "hands off" long term investor, so I' will probably lose my shirt ;}

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

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I think you should just go for the stuffed mattress philosophy!

Just keep your $100,000 and see where you end up. It will definitely not be last place!

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Looks like

you bought yourself some cat food and decided on that path yourself.

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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Nope. I have pending orders.

Still figuring out how to use the tool.  I am only buying mutual funds and am planning to simply do an asset allocation across them.  I think that the mutual fund orders won't execute until after hours, but I am not sure.  You can see what people ordered by clicking on them going to the order and transaction history tabs.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Ender went the 'surge' route

and aggressively placed himself into a little hole already. :-)

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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I thought is was interesting that we had an equal number

of winners (5) and losers (5).

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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I think it's interesting that there's 5 losers...

...on a day that the market was up 200 points...

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And an equal

amount of break-evens (5) at the moment.

I looked at your history but did not see any pending transactions. Are sales only completed during market hours?

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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Nevermind

They are under 'orders.'

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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There's no magic to the funds I picked.

I just picked things that happened to match the mix I wanted. I doubt I picked the best funds in any of these categories. I am aiming for a mix roughly as follows:

25% S&P 500

25% International Equity Growth

15% Government Bonds

15% Health Care Sector

15% Alternative Energy

5% Cash

These are just targets I made up out of thin air. As the year goes on I will buy and sell as needed to keep these same rough percentages. I will be interested to see how this does against the hot shot day traders. This is obviously lower risk than day trading so my expected rate of return is limited in comparison, but so is my downside. :)

Hey, do you guys care if I setup a second account? I might play with some of this day trading stuff too but I don't want to mix it in with this strategy.

 

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Yeah I think you need a second account

You need to get into the muck of picking individual stocks & trading around a bit...

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Investment horizon is one year

Mutual funds! We have a year for this, not five or ten or twenty!

Me, I'm living dangerously :}

(oops, meant this to link to GoRight's)

"The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire."  --R. Heinlein

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I just don't have time for the research required

to truly be a day trader.

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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Does anyone know of a mutual fund that specializes ...

in buying up property about 1 block from the coastline?  :)

I'm the Bugs Bunny of Swords Crossed!
-4 Strongly Disagree - 0 Meh - Strongly Agree +4

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2nd account

I don't mind but we'll see what others say.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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hahaha

I am a surge kinda guy :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I'm sure

the market will welcome you with flowers and as a hero any day now. :-)

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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nice job dude!

Good luck keeping it!

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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damn, my Bear Stearns order

has been pending forever... sons of...

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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It's slow

Yeah...

I've been waiting on Costco all day.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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It only executes market orders at the beginning of the day

I figured this out after the fact, with my three market orders just sitting there :-(  Then I figured out that there was no way to delete a pending order :-p

Looks like you should use limit orders during the day.  It's not too big a deal-- a limit order at a price at or below the current bid price is basically equivalent to a market order. 

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Are you sure?

I just got Honda using a standard market order and shorted Goldman Sachs and both went through just fine.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Never mind, I misread the Help

One of my trades did execute, looks like.  The others are still pending...

 

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All of mine have gone through almost instantly

and I have no clue what I'm doing but I'm raking in the $$ already =)

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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is that crap realistic?

Too bad it's not instant trade :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Fried Chicken and Urban Outfitters

Hopefully KFC and Timberland's stocks will go through the ceiling.

Buying those stocks is just my homage to the Chappelle Show, sadly no FUBU stocks.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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you want me to go to lunch at KFC

to boost you up a bit?

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I'm not helping either

Well I'll be damned if I'm going to watch Fox News for you.

:-)

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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OK, I'm in.

But not as Spiritual Lefty - just didn't seem appropriate for a frickin' stock market simulation!

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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What's your

moniker, er screen name?

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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Ookpik.

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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hehehe

cool, I really suck at this stuff - mostly because I don't feel like doing the research :) But it's fun.

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Research?

Who needs it? It's just Monopoly money!

(Just trying to lay the groundwork of expectations. I'll be pleased if I don't lose everything!) 

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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amen to that

I might be gone in a couple of weeks :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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I'm in

and pretty excited to have $100K to invest =)

We've already got a nice size group but if you want a few more people someone could post a note at the Forvm...

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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heh

why don't you drop them a note, since they know you :)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Ok, I cross-posted the notice

here . Stinerman, I hope you don't mind me quoting your diary in full. Thanks again for the great idea and for setting everything up!

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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I'm gonna put this at the Minority Report too

I'm sure the conservatives will shred the field =P

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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can people join after the start?

Too bad this wasn't started yesterday because I was all excited about plunking some money into the Visa IPO, and disappointed about the game not starting yet ;)

"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR

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Join whenever...

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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skymutt registered, account locked and loaded

Thanks for setting the game up, stinerman!

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I have no time

Bu it looks fun. Post the results so we can get some info. on trends to use in the 'real world.'

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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Ok, in but

I have to do some research before I make my buys. I guess I have about a year or so to do that.

We are all mediators, translators. - Derrida
http://signicide.blogspot.com/

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This is a good simulator!

I used it for our stock market game over on Wealth Weekly and we ran the game for an entire year (April 1 2007 - April 2008). Not only does it keep you focused more than those one month games, but it shows how long-term investing is beneficial. I'll sign up soon once the game ID is posted.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

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It's up...

I can still change the end date and a few other options if any one is interested in playing longer.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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I'm in--but I suggest a date extension..

You'd be surprised how quickly a year goes by. I would say extend the game to at least the end of this year (maybe even a year from the start date). I don't think any of the regulars will be leaving the site any time soon, and it gives us a chance to see how we perform against the long-term statistical mean of the Market Average. I'm sure we'd all beat the market in 60 days, but 360 days will be different.

And, we get to talk passive-aggressive trash to each other :-) (j/k..)

Everything else is cool.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

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I favor an extension also.

End of year sounds good to me.

As for this:

And, we get to talk passive-aggressive trash to each other :-)

Most definitely-- be prepared for stuff like this: 

"Tough luck on that Alcoa position, Chuck J... who knew that Coca-Cola in juiceboxes would turn out to be such a hit?

"Wow, Brendan-- ouch on that  Chapter 11 filing taking your Countrywide shares down to nil.  I guess the Fed only bails out real banks!

"Two oil tankers, colliding-- off the coast of the Flamingo National Wildlife Reserve, no less!  Man, steinermeister, that's just bad luck on your ExxonMobil!"

 

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Extension until March 25, 2009

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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