How Hillary Can Win Dem. Nomination
As a Republican observer of the Dems campaign, I can easily imagine a scenario whereby Hillary can win the nomination. So I am surprised to read all the (self-serving) commentary saying HRC can’t win.
She needs to make the same argument to the Dems super-delegates that McCain recently made to the Republican primary voters. Namely, that she can win the general election, whereas Barak Obama can’t. Let’s remember, McCain won primaries because enough so-called conservative Republicans voted for him to put McCain over the top. These conservative republicans did so (despite their issue disagreements with McCain) because in the general election McCain did substantially better in the head-to-head polls against either HRC or Obama than his primary opponents. In other words, McCain won the primaries (albeit in a crowded field) because he was perceived as more electable. The feeling being 2008 is not going to be a good year for the Republicans anyway, so at least let’s nominate the most electable of our candidates. When you’ve got lemons, make lemonade--and all that.
So the question is how does HRC go about making the electability argument to the Dems super-delegates?. She does this by:
1. Winning by a solid margin the Pennsylvania primary (and most of the other remaining primaries), which is doable. And
2. Performing substantially better than Obama, at convention time, in head-to head polls against McCain.
Regarding the polls, here ,
there has been a significant shift. About a month ago, Obama was leading McCain nationwide in the polls by about 2 or 3% and HRC was losing to McCain by about the same margin--let’s say a spread of 5%. Now both HRC and Obama are about even with McCain. So if HRC can somehow establish a leading spread over Obama in the matchup vs. McCain of, say at least 5%, then that’s a very powerfull argument for the democratic super-delegates to vote for her. She can say, with some validity, that she is more electable.
If you are going to have super-delegates who are unpledged (that’s why they are called “super“ delegates), then what better reason for the super-delegates to move away from the candidate with a slight pledged vote count lead (say 100 delegates), than proof (from the polls) that candidate (Obama) will be more likely to lose in the general election.
Either way, I’m voting for McCain, but it will be interesting to watch.
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Comments :
The problem for me is that to establish
the "proof" for the superdelegates that Obama is unelectable will require attacking him to try to make him unelectable.
Team HRC can't afford to just sit back and root for injuries -- they have to go out there hacking if they want to have a realistic chance of hurting Obama. To me that's a potential problem for the party.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
If I had to bet my own money, I would
say Obama wins the nomination. However, here are some potential negatives that could develop:
1. Rezko--Did Obama do him any big favors that will come out at the trial or otherwise?
2. the Raili Odinga/Kenya connection about which I have writen previously.
3. Hostile interviews or inquires by the press. Unlike McCain, who talks to the press alot, Obama tends to avoid same.
4. Some of his unpopular left wing views which may start to be featured, like suppotring dirver's licenses for illegals.
name the enemy, win the war
Glad you are interested
It is the economy, stupid.
Hillary can Win
by burning down the Democratic Party and then planting her victory flag in the ashes.
She can tout her military credentials
She can rile up the voters in Michigan and Florida, railing on about how they have a right to have their votes counted, that the 'voters should be heard', while at out of the other side of her mouth she tries to get the superdelegates, and the appointed delegates to ignore the will of the voters.
She can do the Tanya Harding on Obama...... kneecapping him and breaking his back with implications that he might be muslim or a cousin to David Duke.
She can fire up old bitter feminists who have endured years of 'abuse' at the hands of their spouses in this society that is so 'unfair' to women.
She can get her husband to say 'Bring It On', and every time someone criticizes her play the "i am a woman as a victim card'.
Hillary Clinton seems angry to learn that not all Democrats appreciate her notion that the Democratic Party owes her the nomination.
Hillary Clinton....... I am so over you.
It is the economy, stupid.
An interesting link
on this subject is here Newsweek
The silver lining is that the dem base is fired up and ready to go in all 50 states after this long drawn out battle, and Obama has become a better candidate.
It is the economy, stupid.
hillary doesn't want to win
i don't believe this is true, but it's an interisting thought. What if hillary wants that old republican guy to be president. That way she can run again in 4 years without having to run against that popular black guy, who won't look like as good a canidate having just lost an election?