The reviews are in -- ABC sucks

Where to begin?

Let's see. How about Tom Shales at the Washington Post, who said Gibson and Stephanopoulos turned in "shoddy, despicable performances."

For the first 52 minutes of the two-hour, commercial-crammed show, Gibson and Stephanopoulos dwelled entirely on specious and gossipy trivia that already has been hashed and rehashed, in the hope of getting the candidates to claw at one another over disputes that are no longer news. Some were barely news to begin with.

Then there was Will Bunch from the Philadelphia Daily News:

With your performance tonight -- your focus on issues that were at best trivial wastes of valuable airtime and at worst restatements of right-wing falsehoods, punctuated by inane "issue" questions that in no way resembled the real world concerns of American voters -- you disgraced my profession of journalism, and, by association, me and a lot of hard-working colleagues who do still try to ferret out the truth, rather than worry about who can give us the best deal on our capital gains taxes. But it's even worse than that. By so badly botching arguably the most critical debate of such an important election, in a time of both war and economic misery, you disgraced the American voters, and in fact even disgraced democracy itself. Indeed, if I were a citizen of one of those nations where America is seeking to "export democracy," and I had watched the debate, I probably would have said, "no thank you." Because that was no way to promote democracy.

Greg Mitchell at Editor and Publisher:

In perhaps the most embarrassing performance by the media in a major presidential debate in years, ABC News hosts Charles Gibson and George Stephanopolous focused mainly on trivial issues as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama faced off in Philadelphia.

Even The Guardian couldn't stand it, offering the headline "Worst. Debate. Ever."

Almost a year since the Democrats had their first debate of the presidential campaign, and what did we get in the latest one? A stinker, an absolute car crash - thanks to the host network ABC. It was worse than even those debates last year with 18 candidates on stage, including crazy old Mike Gravel.

In short, ABC would have done a greater service to its viewers if instead of the debate it had aired aerial footage of Britney Spears being hauled off for psychiatric treatment.

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What I don't get

is what ABC was thinking.

This reaction wasn't hard to predict. Polls consistently show the public says they'd prefer more substantial discussion and less "gotcha" politics. Whether one believes them I suppose is open to debate, but it's no shock that people are trashing the tabloid level of questioning.

Many of the debates this year have been crap.

Time to switch the format. I would love to see single-topic debates that go in-depth, moderated by neutral experts in the field, in which the candidates can also question one another.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Re: "Polls consistently show

Re: "Polls consistently show the public says they'd prefer more substantial discussion and less "gotcha" politics."

And polls would probably show that no one watches pro wrestling ;)

Good idea re: single topic, in-depth debates. I wouldn't want all the debates like that (particularly since some issues overlap with others -- e.g., some aspects of economics and foreign policy) but I'd sure like to see some debates like that. And for moderators, I'd like a combination of a SERIOUS newsman (e.g., Jim Lehrer) and neutral experts (another idea I like. Maybe if a friggin' economist were a modator last night he would have slapped stupid, ignorant, irresponsible Charlie Gibson when he kept insisting that cutting the cap gains tax increases revenues).

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People may watch fake wrestling, but there are no real fans

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Sounds good to me

Lehrer was pretty consistently reasonable and even-handed, something like that would be a nice improvement.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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Actually, any of the

Actually, any of the co-anchors from NewsHour would probably be more serious and substantive than the moderators we've seen this year.

But Lehrer has the gravitas, at least among those who are into news.

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The Smut Debate

I could not be more disgusted.

It is the economy, stupid.

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I wouldn't be upset

if ABC decided to dump Gibson and Stephanopolous.

It would certainly send a message to future moderators.

qui tacet consentire

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I'll second that, even

I'll second that, even though I think Snuffulupagus does a good job on This Week. I'd rather see Big Bird moderate.

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Funny. These guys refused to debate on Fox news ...

and this is what they got instead? :) I bet they're regretting that decision about now ... Fox would have stuck to the issues. They report. We decide!

Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree

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The Most Disgusting Question

STEPHANOPOULOS: Number one, do you think Reverend Wright loves America as much as you do?

It is the economy, stupid.

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OMGWTF

Christ, he actually asked that?

I heard it was bad, but I didn't know it was that bad.

When are they going to ask McCain why he's too good to put on his own jacket (for those who don't know, due to his torture at the hands of the VC, he cannot do this himself)?

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Ha! That's a great question ...

it puts them into a catch 22 before the voters, right where I like 'em! This is some great kabuki!

Republican Maverick at Large
-4:Strongly Disagree; 0:Meh; +4:Strongly Agree

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Obama went...

to church to court the Christian vote, now you can rant on Obama for at the very least being not the right kind of Christian or even worse a nontheist.

Are they going to ask McCain if he loved American when he participated in Viet Minh propaganda after enhanced interrogations?

Why not ask Bush if he thinks his cocaine dealer loves America as much as Bush does?

Or ask Bush if he thinks Vladimir Putin loves Christ as much as Bush does. Putin did wear a cross once and Bush saw the overall good in Putin because of it.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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It sounds like a question

that an SS agent would ask. Tell me how much do you love your country.

Would you be willing to sacrifice your oldest child for the homeland.

If you don't love your country enough, please go to door #2.

It Is a disgusting question, with disgusting implications.

It addresses a pet peeve of mine, which is questioning my love for my country, or my patriotism, a favorite tactic of Republicans.

It is the economy, stupid.

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Great kabuki

But is it great journalism? Is it something that ABC News should be engaging in?

We are the environment. There is no distinction. What we do to the earth we do to ourselves. —David Suzuki

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Great column!

Great column! http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1731655,00.html

Even nails Jackass Charlie Gibson for his jackass capital gains tax assertion -- YES!! Thank you, Michael Grunwald.

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The term Obama should

The term Obama should introduce:
"Jerry Springerization".

As in:
"What we're seeing in the focus by the news media on these manufactured side-issues is the Jerry Springerization of politics and elections. Instead of focusing on matters that are going to affect the lives of Americans, they try to provoke chair throwing between the candidates by bringing up silly things that have nothing to do with important policy matters like the economy, the war, healthcare, etc. And unfortunately, some political candidates are more than willing to participate if they think they can gain from it."

If he introduced that term, I think it would become a widely used term, but maybe I'm giving myself too much credit for it. Anyway, if it happens, you all know who coined the term.

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It would have been great

If Obama had said, "I thought this was going to be a debate about real issues, not a taping of the Jerry Springer Show."

qui tacet consentire

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I like it!

That debate deserves to be compared to Jerry Springer, and it would be a very effective meme. It would have won Obama a couple more precentage points in the primary.

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Nice to see

Nice to see http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/04/an-open-letter....

By the way, Hillary's spin is so lame. She's claiming that Obama is complaing that the questions were "tough". Obviously he was complaining that the questions were about the trivial rather than the important, not because the questions were tough.

I'm not going to vote for either of them, and I have been critical of Obamamania (people getting caught up in some amorphous feeling of inspiration even if they can't articulate why they support him) and of Obama's lack of experience, but I have to ask Hillary supporters: Doesn't she just make you sick as a politician? She is just so lame, so phony. She will distort, misrepresent, pretend the unimportant is important, the irrelevant is relevant, do or say anything to gain any amount of political advantage. I can understand why some Democrats would favor her over Obama (particularly due to greater experience on her part, even if she does overstate it), but can anyone vote for her without holding his/her nose? At least with Obama I don't get the feeling that the guy is a 100% political animal with nothing genuine and no principles or integrity. I do get that impression with Hillary.

Other opinions?

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A Thread hijack of sorts

I'm not going to vote for either of them

I hope that isn't an implicit endorsement of McCain.

I'll remind you that you may have electors for Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, Cynthia McKinney, and perhaps even Alan Keyes or Roy Moore on your ballot, depending on where you live.

Nader has climbed up my list rather fast. I probably won't vote for Barr if he's the Libertarian nominee. He's too conservative and not libertarian enough for my liking.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Yes, I'm going to vote for

Yes, I'm going to vote for McCain. I'm far from perfectly happy with him. I liked him much more in 2000 when he was much more of a true fiscal conservative, when he was pushing campaign finance reform, and when he was calling Falwell and Robertson "agents of intolerance". But I have to choose someone, and the Obama and Hillary want to spend too much, promise irresponsibly to withdraw from Iraq no matter what, are acting like protectionists, Obama is unqualified and Hillary is an incredibly annoying phony who I'm sure would always put her own political gain over the interests of the nation when the two conflicted.

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McCain lost my vote in 2000

When he failed to punch Bush in the face after Rove spread rumors in South Carolina that McCain's adopted daughter from Bangladesh was a black love child.

Maybe it's just me because I have an adopted son who is Asian, but a man who does not stand up for his children is not worthy to be president.

qui tacet consentire

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I hated watching him suck up

I hated watching him suck up to Bush in 2000 (and 2004), as well as suck up to the religious right and to the extreme supply-sider crowd in 2007/8.

I hear ya' re: the Bush dirty tactics in 2000, including that rumor. I think they were supposedly by independent third parties (i.e., not the Bush campaign), but I'm skeptical of that independence, and in any case they could have spoken out against it (if they did I don't remember them doing it).

Another reason I hated to see McCain sucking up to Bush in 2000 was that it seemed that Gore compared favorably to Bush in some very important areas in my view and, I assume, in McCain's view: Qualifications to be Commander in Chief, campaign finance reform, and quite arguably fiscal responsibility.

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I'm surprised,

in that I think of you as the independent's independent.*

 

*- Note:  That was just a comment based upon how I thought independents might go...not a judgement of your judgement.

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hmm, that's intriguing. What

hmm, that's intriguing. What do you see as "the independent's independent" ? And what surprises you?

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I dunno...

As far as being independent,...You're very much above the fray, IMO without being drawn into any single political bin (tho I know you're pretty economically conservative).

and......I just figured that independents were undecided or Obama. Probably more a miscalculation on my part than any weird scenario that's playing out in American politics.

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If McCain weren't such a hawk, I'd probably

give him my tepid to room-temp support.

I simply cannot support his war stance...even if he were libertarian on almost everything else...and his is FAR from that anyway.

I sway between voting for Obama and casting a third party vote....for what it's worth (and that ain't much).

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I'm sure I won't votea major party candidate...

but for fun...

I'd just watch how much Obama was willing to back off of protectionalist stances and taxes during the actual election. If he's not so steadfast, I would vote for him....otherwise, I'd go Mc....(do I have to say it?)

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I'd rather write my own name in than vote for Mc...

The president has too much sway over matters of war and peace.

Obama may annoy me with a lot of things but a lot of it requires procedure that will blunt it out or prevent it from happening...that and the fact that I think he's lying on some of his more egregious rhetoric.

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Voting....

I think I've been convinced that it's a waste of my time by all of our economic friends (unless the state of Ohio is so kind to send me an absentee.)

Can't wait to find out who we're voting for!

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I'd opt for the latter

I don't think Barr is the answer for the Libertarians. He's more of a principled federalist than anything else -- anyone who pushed through DOMA isn't a libertarian of any stripe. The Libertarians, like the Greens, are succumbing to the trap of thinking they need a big name at the top of their ticket.

The other two candidates with a shot are Wayne Allyn Root , who comes off as a slimy used-car salesman and Mary Ruwart , who is apparently somewhat of a celebrity in libertarian circles. I read something by her that said taxes are tantamount to theft. That crosses into Ayn Rand loony-bin territory as far as I'm concerned.

Speaking of Ayn Rand, this cartoon gives me a chuckle every time I see it.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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thanks (I take that as a

thanks (I take that as a compliment).

The rest of this comment is going to sound like me tooting my own horn, but my purpose is not to praise myself but to comment on politics and political discourse in America today and how I wish more people would be, and to point out what's great about the SC format and the participants here.

I hope one reason you have that impression of me (independence) is that I try not to let partisanship or a candidate preference or policy preference compromise my objectivity too much or keep me from exposing weaknesses in the case for what I prefer and strengths of the case for an opposing view. A lot of people (in general, I don't mean on SC) refuse to seriously consider and acknowledge legitimate points made by the other "side". I'm glad that the folks here on SC, for the most part, are not like that. Unfortunately, the trend in political discourse in America today is in the wrong direction. The fragmentation of the media (e.g., talk radio, ideological/partisan blogs, etc.) is leading people increasingly to adopt a hostile, partisan mindset that makes substantive discussion/debate very difficult.

The folks at RedState wanted to tar and feather me for pointing out that the Bush tax cuts have almost certainly had a large negative net impact on revenues. The folks at "progressive" economics blogs Economist's View and Beat the Press reacted similarly when I exposed a fundamental conceptual/analytical error they were making in their arguments against any cuts in projected Social Security spending. In neither case did my point constitute advocacy of any policy. They were both just corrections of analytical errors. Yet in both cases people immediately presumed my policy preference and attacked me for my supposed hidden, sinister motives and lack of integrity, instead of considering my point on its merits and discussing it as an analytical matter.

It just so happens in those particular cases I DID oppose the policy preferences of those groups (we do need to raise taxes and we do need to cut projected Social Security spending), but that doesn't change the fact that my points had nothing to do with any policy preference. And in many cases, I've (publicly) corrected people who were advocating the same policy or candidate that I was advocating if they were saying/writing something erroneous. It's a matter of intellectual integrity, and it's also a matter of humility: even if I feel confident that the policy I prefer is the best one, I can't be SURE, so doing my best to contribute to people having the best, most accurate info possible on which to base THEIR preference is a higher priority than just seeking the achievement of the policy I prefer. A lot of people are just fine with others having misconceptions as long as that's conducive to achieving the policy that those people are seeking. In extreme cases, that may be justified, but one should realize that it's an arrogant approach, based on the presumption that if others were better-informed they would lack the judgment or values or whatever to choose what is supposedly so obviously the right policy.

I'm not done complimenting myself...

I hope another reason you have that impression of me is that I try to think things through independently and critically rather than taking some tribalist partisan approach (my "side", "us" vs. "them") or simply using ideology as some be all end all formula for all policy choices. The result, in my case at least, is that my set of views doesn't fall neatly into any cookie-cutter category or label. I try to get the facts, assess as best I can what the consequences of policy (or candidate) X or Y would be, and apply the choices to my values. I try to overcome cognitive dissonance by allowing my views to adjust to new information, not just seeking and interpreting information to confirm and reinforce my views. (I just read a good book on this topic, by the way: http://www.amazon.com/True-Enough-Learning-Post-Fact-Society/dp/0470050101 )

Lastly, there is an important dimension to policy that does not lie on the left-right spectrum, and that third dimension is responsibility. Fiscal responsibility may be the most important example. Given our enormous, unsustainable projected long-term fiscal imbalance, someone who wants to raise taxes and keep spending policies unchanged is more fiscally responsible than someone who wants to cut taxes even if spending policies are unchanged. Someone who wants to cut projected spending and leave taxes unchanged is more fiscally responsible than someone who wants to leave both projected spending and taxes unchanged. The spending cutter and the tax raiser are obviously at different points on the left-right spectrum on fiscal policy, but they may be at the same point on the responsibility dimension of fiscal policy. I try to place a high priority on responsibility, rather than letting ideology (left-right) trump responsibility.

Boy, I really hope all of the above doesn't make me sound like an ass. What I said above about myself I would say about most folks here at SC (even if we end up with different policy and candidate preferences), which is why I like SC. I think the fact that SC is open to folks of all political/ideological perspectives is both cause and effect of most people here being pretty good in the ways I described above. I would guess that the people drawn to SC are seeking more thoughtful, substantive discussion/debate than those who stick to the partisan/ideological echo chamber circle j-rk blogs, and I think that knowing that people from a wide variety of perspectives are here kinda keeps people honest to a large extent in a way that the partisan blogs don't.

So everybody take a bow. (wait, wasn't I just ridiculing blogs that engage in circle j-rks? Yeah, but this is different. You guys know what I mean.)

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Nope

Boy, I really hope all of the above doesn't make me sound like an ass.

People like you are why I'm here, too.

Cheers!

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Thanks Stinerman. And Happy

Thanks Stinerman. And Happy Passover. (I'm going way out on a limb and guessing you're Jewish, although you could be secular)

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Thanks Anyway

You guessed wrong; I'm not Jewish.

The traditional Jewish names like "Bernstein" and other "-steins" don't have much to do with "Stein" (which my ancestors changed to "Stine" on the boat) as far as I know. "Stein" is German, meaning "stone".

People often mistake my name for being a "Jewish name", to which I don't take any offense.

Religiously, my father's side is Methodist and my mother's side is Catholic. I self-identify as an agnostic atheist, which is to say that I believe there is no god, but I don't think one can know if one or more exist.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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I'm agnostic. I, too, don't

I'm agnostic. I, too, don't think whether or not there is a "god" is knowable. I was raised Jewish and used to believe in god, but became agnostic as a college freshman over two decades ago. (I'm heading up to CT to spend Passover sedar with family; to me it's just a family thing).

I used to believe in Jesus.......Jesus Alou, that is. But then it occurred to me: If the guy can't hit .300, how can he be omnipotent? (I don't know if you're old enough to get the Jesus Alou reference. He was on the Oakland A's in the 1970s when I was a kid).

Actually, I'm a dyslexic agnostic: I don't know if there's a dog.

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unimportant,

unimportant, anally-retentive correction of something I said:

"Responsibility" would be a SECOND dimension (the left-right spectrum being only one dimension), not a "third" dimension as I stated.

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Fiscally Responsible?

I've got to ask, how is the war in Iraq coupled with tax cuts (both of which John McCain supports) go under the heading of fiscally responsible?

To be more precise, do you consider Bush to be morally or fiscally responsible? If not, then how are McCain's policy proposals bringing an end to that irresponsibility?

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Bush is about as fiscally

Bush is about as fiscally irresponsible as one can get. Huge growth in spending -- even aside from the wars and homeland security -- coupled with tax cuts.

McCain was fiscally responsible in 2000. These days not so much, at least not in his promises. I'm hoping that if he becomes president, what I believe to be his sense of responsibility and honor and service will win out, when it is clear to him that we must get our fiscal house in order to avert disaster, and he'll renege (a la H.W. Bush) on his promises to make the Bush tax cuts permanent and elimate the AMT. He is, at least, a spending hawk, and spending is obviously a big part of the problem. And he can use his promise re: taxes as leverage to extract concessions from the Democrats on the spending side as part of the kind of compromise that every expert knows is inevitable sooner or later (and the later it comes, the worse the eventual pain will be).

knocienz, please send me an email so I have your email address. I want to get back to our discussion on that abortion thread from a couple of months ago, because you made some impressive, thought-provoking arguments that I'd like to address. So I want to email you after I've posted a comment, when I get to it. So can you send me an email (brooksbud@aol.com), or would you rather keep that private?

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knocienz, here's our

knocienz, here's our exchange on that thread to which I'm referring http://swordscrossed.org/node/1736#comment-74772

I'd like to pick up where we left off sometime.

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Mccain is running for Bush's third term

Whether he actually plans on following through, I don't know. But he has been very consistent on his support for spending a few hundred billion a year on Iraq for the foreseeable future. IMO that makes it pretty much impossible to be a spending hawk.

email sent.

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I view spending on

I view spending on Defense/war as more complex than spending on current consumption, and more akin to capital spending (e.g., infrastructure). If you think the Iraq war does not benefit us, on balance or at all, even aside from the financial cost -- i.e., even if it were free -- than obviously you'd view any amount spent on it as wasteful. But if you view it as an investment in our future physical and/or economic security or well-being, then the question becomes one of ROI.

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War spending is either an imperative or a waste

I considered going after Bin Laden in Afghanistan to be a defensive imperative. But I don't see Iraq that way at all.

ROI analysis requires some set of quantifiable metrics yes? I've never seen any such set. I see a lot of "Them Islamofascists will call us yella!" but it is always abstract.

Have you seen any justifiable ROI analysis? If so, please share.

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I'm not saying I know of any

I'm not saying I know of any such ROI analysis (and it would be extraordinarily complex, with a zillion assumptions all subject to debate). My point is conceptual -- that the proper perspective is to view such spending as an investment rather than simply as spending on current consumption. I also think it is wrong to view any such spending as "an imperative", since obviously there is at least theoretically some financial cost of even a justified war with substantial security benefits that we would not want to bear because the ROI would not seem sufficiently high, all things considered (including the consideration of having resources for future security threats). So ROI is the proper perspective either way.

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I'd say investing in infrastructure is ROI based

But pulling the trigger has to be at least based on an imperative.

In other words, developing a new weapon, sensor or fusion system and taking it to production is an investment, but causing people to die must be based on a moral imperative and that it needs to be remembered that war is almost always a negative sum game.

You stated that you are voting for McCain, who has promised to stay in Iraq no matter what while complaining that the Democrats have promised to leave Iraq no matter what and I don't get why the first is OK but the latter is irresponsible. In the absence of a meaningful ROI that actually supports the activity, avoidance of a negative sum game SHOULD be the default choice IMO.

Also, I don't think that McCain has shown any degree of competence and has been a frickin' hypocrite for the past 7 years, complaining about how he disagrees with the Republican party right up until he votes for all of the most hideous bills they can come up with (See Military Commissions Act)

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Perhaps we're getting stuck

Perhaps we're getting stuck on the word "imperative". I'm just saying that a decision on whether or not to go to war (or to continue a war) should be based on consideration of costs/benefits and risks -- all of which factor into ROI -- just like any other decision.

Saying we should stay no matter what and staying we should leave no matter what are both irresponsible. I don't think "stay no matter what" is McCain's position, at least not explicitly, but if it is/were, then that is/would be irresponsible.

Those who say we should leave and those who think we should stay should both be asking what the consequences are likely to be under each scenario (more precisely, the various possible consequences and probabilities of each, including contingency plans or other reaction to initial consequences). But most Democrats have simply advocated leaving without addressing the consequences of doing so (or engaging in wishful thinking -- or deliberate deception -- by claiming, conveniently, that announcing a schedule for departure would make political reconciliation MORE likely). And most Republicans who support continuing our war effort have simply argued that leaving would be disastrous without really addressing the prospects for making progress if we stay. I've long advocated telling the Iraqi political leaders that we will continue our full support CONTINGENT upon solid progress on key milestones, particularly of political reconciliation (e.g., oil revenue sharing; reversal of de-Baathification; etc.), but if they continue to drag their feet, we will reduce our support and focus on narrower security interests of ours. I should point out, though, that my favored policy makes a key assumption: that we have substantial leverage in that threat to reduce support. If the Shiite leaders just assume whatever support they lose from us would be replaced by Iran, we may not have such leverage and I'd have to reconsider what approach to advocate.

By the way, I've also long favored "soft-partition" (regional autonomy for Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites, respectively) as advocated by Biden and Les Gelb, among others. I think O'Hanlon of Brookings has also advocated it.

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By imperative, I'm talking lack of fungibility

I agree that cost/benefit analyses should be undertaken. I just think issues like Pride (We'll look like idiots if we back out now) do not have an intrinsic benefit that can be traded against dead people. Yes, you can argue that loss of national stature can lead to a greater chance of more American deaths throughout the world, but if you do so, then you need to show at least SOME numbers and you are then committed to accepting the same cost.

i.e.
Against the War: "The rest of the world hates us"
For the War: "Who cares what the rest of the world thinks!"
Against the War: "We need to withdraw!"
For the War: "But the rest of the world needs to think we are strong"
is hypocritical without a reasonable argument that hating our guts has a significantly smaller cost than thinking we backed out.

Those who say we should leave and those who think we should stay should both be asking what the consequences are likely to be under each scenario

What makes you think that we haven't? I'd say that the consequences of us backing out and the consequences of our staying are almost identical. It will be slower and last longer with us there than not. The ethnic cleansing has already occurred, with millions displaced. We may have a second phase after withdrawal (setting up that 'soft-partition you mention)

The civil war between the Mahdi and Maliki is going on in slow motion and Sadr has pretty much won.

As for support being contingent on success, I completely agree. Been there, done that (we even had a 'surge' with specific metrics). They failed horribly, so support is now gone. The fact that the current president is failing to accept that the populous of his country has withdrawn support for the war does not mean that we are required to 'reset' our support when a new president is elected.

Most Iraqis want us out, most Americans want us out and and frankly O'Hanlon has been wrong about pretty much everything so far. The soft-partition can't work IMO. If you can't run a democracy together, you aren't going to be able to share oil revenue either. So you may have a soft-partition, but it will involve the Kurds seizing Kirkuk and the Suuni being pushed out of all oil rich areas. Then the Shia and Turkey will probably work to diminish the Kurdish control over Kirkuk so they can't fund Kurd separatists in Turkey.

Either way, that is going to be somewhat up to the Iraqis.

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I wasn't saying there aren't

I wasn't saying there aren't exceptions to the rule, and you may be one, but as a rule, I have found that those who are advocating a pullout either have not addressed the possible/likely adverse consequences of doing so or have made the convenient assumption -- without adequate information/opinion gathering and attempt at objectivity in analyzing that info/opinion -- that things will be better (for Iraq and for us) if we announce that we are leaving as soon as possible no matter what and then do so.

And as I said, similarly, as a rule, proponents haven't addressed the question of why we should expect consequences to be better if we stay, most notably the question of why we should expect much greater progress on political reconciliation. If all we are doing is delaying an all out civil war rather than preventing one or mitigating its consequences, than it is hard to make a case for staying at such a high cost in American lives and dollars in the meantime. I'm not saying that's the case; I'm just presenting that scenario and saying advocates of staying must refute that scenario, and explain why things are likely to be better if we stay than if we leave (to put it in simplified, dichotomous terms).

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But in the absence of a clearly defined cost/benefit trade

Should our default behavior not be "don't be at war"?

In this case, the cost of staying seems to be (mostly) well defined and enormously high ($s and lives being well defined with diplomatic costs being present but hard to quantify).

The benefit of staying is extremely nebulous. Benefit of leaving seems pretty clear (strongly related to cost of staying) while the cost is undefined.

I may be incorrect, but your default behavior seems to be "Don't change" (which is a standard Null Choice). i.e. if at war, stay at war, if not at war, don't start one (which, based on his support for an ill defined cost/benefit war, should remove McCain from your competency requirement, but that's another story)

This seams to be the basic differential here: In the absence of full trade analysis, don't be at war vs In the absence of full trade analysis, don't change current state. (though honestly, I think there are a fair number of folks who want to be at war for well defined reasons, they just also know that the American people wouldn't support a war for those reasons)

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Re: "But in the absence of a

Re: "But in the absence of a clearly defined cost/benefit trade
Should our default behavior not be "don't be at war"?"

Depends on what you mean by "clearly defined". If you know an act is going to cause harm, as is the case with war, then there is indeed the burden of proof that this harm is outweighed by some benefit. So going to war, or continuing a war, requires an argument for such benefit, as I've been saying.

Advocates of continuing the war most certainly have presented an argument that things would get much worse, for both Iraq and America, if we were to announce today that we were leaving as soon as possible and then did so. What most of them haven't done nearly sufficiently is to make the case that the adverse consequences they describe will not eventually occur anyway, and with the same type and magnitude of harm (plus greater cost to us in the meantime).

So back to your question, obviously SOME cost/benefit analysis must be done to override the default option of NOT doing something that will certainly cause harm, such as war, and obviously the greater the harm, the more thorough and careful the analysis should be, but I don't know whether or not you are setting too high a bar for precision and certainty when you say "clearly defined" cost/benefit analysis.

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But shouldn't we be ignoring the folks who are always wrong?

I suppose what it comes down to for me is that all of the folks who have predicted calamity if we depart have also been predicting success is just around the corner and that the war was going to be a cakewalk.

In other words, they have a well documented history of being INCREDIBLY wrong about costs and benefits of this particular war (this is why I immediately discard Brookings Institute or O'Hanlon, William Kristol and any of the PNAC folks) Are there any cost analyses you have seen that are coming from folks or institutes who have a documented history of being right on iraq? Does McCain have such a history?

I'd say no. But Obama did speak up in 2002 and was pretty right on the subject. (My first choice of Gore as President and Obama as VP would deal with the experience issue, but that isn't going to happen, so I'm stuck with my VP choice at the top of the ticket)

To me, the argument quickly boils down to "We executed this horribly, so let's leave the idiots who mismanaged it or enabled the mismanagement in charge for a few more months and then turn it over to someone else who may be able to pull off a miracle!"

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We should indeed consider

We should indeed consider the source in such matters. And I, too, heavily discount anything Kristol says about Iraq for that reason.

You and I may differ somewhat on our respective ratings of the credibility of various "experts", "pundits" or whatever, perhaps also what/who our sources of information/opinion are, and perhaps also in our own intuitive sense of how things are likely to play out under one policy scenario or another, but I agree with your general point -- in a generic sense -- that we should consider the track record of each source of opinion, predictions, recommendations, etc.

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I think it is

I don't think "stay no matter what" is McCain's position, at least not explicitly, but if it is/were, then that is/would be irresponsible.

All I've heard from McCain is that we need to stay in Iraq until our mission is completed -- without using any unambiguous language to define what our mission is and what constitutes a completion of that mission.

His position can be boiled down to this: we need to stay until the mission is completed and once the mission is completed we stay anyway because we need a presence in the region. His website vaguely indicates that we have to stay until the Iraqi troops can manage their own security. What if this never happens? The borders of Iraq were purportedly drawn up on the back of an envelope by Winston Churchill. Iraq isn't much of a county to begin with. The partition plan makes sense, but Turkey isn't going to allow an independent Kurdistan to exist and the Shi'ite area might as well be a province of Iran.

He's still for adding more troops, according to his website. I don't know if anyone told him, but short of conscription, we simply don't have any more troops to throw at Iraq.

I suppose my approach is just as irresponsible (a so-called precipitous withdrawal), but at least we won't be sinking trillions of more dollars into Iraq.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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He's still for adding more

He's still for adding more troops, according to his website. I don't know if anyone told him, but short of conscription, we simply don't have any more troops to throw at Iraq.

Two of the options I see taking place before conscripts are in the US military.

1: Lower the lowered entrance standards even further.
2: Increase incentives for people to reenlist or enlist.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Taking all McCain's

Taking all McCain's statements as a whole, I don't see him saying or implying that he'd want us to continue our war effort even if doing so will leave us with the choice between a never-ending war effort (i.e., with substantial casualties and huge expense) or eventually leaving with the same consequences as if we had left earlier. Rather, I think he's saying that he thinks we have at least a decent chance at improving the situation such that we can reduce our presence and mission to something akin to our presence in South Korea or Germany or Japan (i.e., without substantial casualties or cost on the scale of the war in Iraq so far).

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I have a feeling it will be

I have a feeling it will be more like Spanish rule in Cuba. The Spanish were never quite safe over there.

or

Iraq could be the beacon of democracy that was the Weimar Republic.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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By the way, McCain says all

By the way, McCain says all the time about the Iraq war "It will be long and it will be hard and it will be tough", and every time I hear him say that I wonder if he got that line from Ron Jeremy.

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Freud may have some insight into your thoughts

The first thing you think of after hearing "It will be long and it will be hard and it will be tough" is Ron Jeremy?

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Well, not really Ron Jeremy

Well, not really Ron Jeremy in particular. I just though referencing him (and his...er...movie roles) would be a little funnier than just making a generic anatomical reference.

As for your broader point, I hardly think I'm alone (among men, at least) in getting a chuckle when McCain says that for the 1000th time. I wouldn't be surprised if it's been made fun of on The Daily Show or if it will be at some point. How's this: a fake Viagra commercial showing a clip of McCain saying with his usual conviction "It will be long and it will be hard ".

I think that would be darn funny, and I think a lot of others would, et tu Brute.

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Straight and on the spot

How's this: a fake Viagra commercial showing a clip of McCain saying with his usual conviction "It will be long and it will be hard ".

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Surprised me

I'm a bit disheartened by the fact that you've already refused to even look at minor party and independent candidates, but I understand the strategy at hand.

I'll also echo other sentiments that I figured you were an Obama supporter. Most purple bars around here are. I'm only one because there is no federalist bar color.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Federalist is ambiguous

It may speak to your views on the division of power...but little else.

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I'm not complaining

My political philosophy is very hard to pin down regardless. Some of it is yellow, some is black, and some is blue or green.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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I'm not ruling out some

I'm not ruling out some third party as a matter of principle. But I don't know who's out there that I'd find appealing. Also, there is the "strategy" matter that you mention, assuming you're referring to the fact that a third party candidate has no real chance of winning. But in general, if I hated the two main party candidates and loved some third party candidate, I would probably go with the third party candidate.

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As for Obama, on a personal

As for Obama, on a personal level I like him, and by that I don't mean that he's the one I'd want to have a beer with. I'm talking about the many situations I think a president is in in which he has to choose between doing what is best for the country (and world in some cases) vs. what is best for him personally (e.g., re-election, or prestige/ego, or whatever) or vs. what is best for his party (which may or may not be rationalized as best in the long term for the country, but that gets pretty darn fuzzy, with a kind of team bonding and rivalry vs. the other team that takes on a life of its own). I think Hillary's priorities in such situations would generally be, in order, herself, her party, and lastly her country. I think both Obama and McCain would be significantly better. If pressed, I'd even say that Obama may even edge out McCain and be the best of the group in that respect.

I also like Obama's thoughtful style. He seems to be a guy who wants to learn about all sides, perspectives, positions, etc. and try to make practical decisions based on a good, approapriately broad set of information. I worry that McCain may be more of a seat-of-the-pants decision-maker, which at times can be good, but on balance I don't like.

What I don't like about Obama is...and this is just a teeny, tiny, matter...he's unqualified. He just doesn't have enough experience, IMHO. I also think this Obamamania phenomenon is a bit silly, but that's not really his fault and it's not something I hold against him.

On policy matters, in my comment above I mentioned a few other objections I have.

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Gosh BR

Reading this post, it sounds like you are talking yourse