Senator McCain, how much is Iraq worth?

Last week, B Rational had a set of questions concerning Obama's position on Iraq might be if his opinion on Iraq; specifically, what Obama would do if he changed his mind regarding the state of Iraqi capability. My return questions concern the apparent contradictory nature of Senator's McCain's position.

For some background, here are several statements that McCain has made:

1) He has stated that if he were president the US military would not depart until achieving "Victory with Honor"
2) He has stated that knowing what he knows now, he would still have supported the invasion and
3) His spokesman has confirmed that if asked to leave by the Iraqi government, the U.S. would do so.

Several top generals have stated on the record that Iraq is wearing our armed forces down to the breaking point. This is especially true concerning the Reserve and National Guard components, but also the active Army. The economic and diplomatic costs of the war also continue to mount.

So, the questions that I have for Senator McCain and his supporters are:

1) How does McCain define victory? So far, the only explanation I have seen is that it will be based upon the determination by the commanders on the ground. Is this truly the extent of McCain’s definition of victory? As commander in chief would he actually delegate the very goals of war over to the military?

2) Does he consider the war/battle in Iraq a war/battle of choice? If not, why would the Iraqi government government be given a veto power over our ability to wage it?
Note: I am specifically separating the War in Iraq from any other larger context. If he (or his supporters) view a regional cultural war as the larger backdrop, then the question decomposes to
Is this larger context existential or of choice?
If the former, is the Iraqi 'front' necessary/critical in order to win this larger war?

3) To what extent is McCain willing to damage the US in order to achieve this victory in Iraq?
For example, is a pyrrhic victory where the US achieves victory with their last troop standing and an economy in shambles acceptable?
If not, how many troops is this victory worth? How many Iraqi civilians?
How many dollars, in both direct cost and opportunity cost in damage to the economy is this victory worth?
What is the maximum amount of time a recovery of our military would require before the cost of a staying would be too high?

4) If there were a higher priority crisis somewhere else in the world (at home or abroad) that required us to leave Iraq before achieving victory, would McCain reverse his promise and leave without honorable victory?

5) If McCain came to believe that raising taxes would speed up this victory or lower the damage done to achieve this victory, would he do so?

6) If McCain came to believe that this victory was not possible, would he reverse his promise and bring home the troops without honorable victory?

Based on the answers, I'll almost certainly have some follow up

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OK B Rational, your turn

Other opinions, questions and answers are all welcome,
And to be clear, I'm discussing what I consider to be the contradictory nature of Senator McCain's stance, not whether or not the Iraqi occupation actually is absolutely teh most important battle eveh!1!11!e!even!!

Humorless snark will be ignored.

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"answers are all welcome"

I'm discussing what I consider to be the contradictory nature of Senator McCain's stance.

McCain will get the US "victory with honor" while making decisions based on the counsel of Patraeus and leave when the Iraqis tell the US to leave. Burden of gaining "victory with honor" is implicitly shifted Patraeus and the Iraqi government.

"Victory with Honor" is a campaign slogan and will likely mean nothing in time. And thats a change in meaning that we can believe in.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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So McCain is delegating the goals for war in your opinion?

So you are saying that the very goals of the war have been delegated to the military and foreign leaders?

My personal opinion is that it is a combination of pride and a desire to extend US military reach further; a combination of Tom Freidman's "Suck On This" and good old fashioned imperialism.

Your version is really the creepiest in my mind.

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Well...

if McCain is going to make his decisions based mainly on what his Generals and staff directly tell him to do, McCain may be the fall guy if things go wrong,but McCain seems to promote him just putting a rubber stamp on other's decisions [not that thats a bad thing]

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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I don't know about rubber stamping...

...but I think he appreciates the insanely high level of talent our Generals and their staffs possess.

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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Thats...

...a lot of Q's?

How should we attack it, one thing at a time, or a long detailed post?

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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It is a bit of a decision tree

There are some answers to the earlier questions that could conceivably make the latter ones unanswerable.

For example, if he really considered an existential war, then the "at what cost" questions become pretty easy to answer. However that does cause a conflict with why he would depart if the Iraqi government asked us to leave.

If the reason he'd depart when asked is pragmatism; the cost of fighting a war when the entire world, including the Iraq government treated as hostile occupiers would be too high then it isn't existential. The cost of a new invasion and sustained occupation while incredibly high, would be justified by our desperate struggle to survive.

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Ok so, I will say...

I am not a spokesperson for John McCain mind you.

I believe John McCain sees the war in Iraq, as do many of us, as a war on terror itself, in that respect I suppose there is at least that existential quantifier involved.

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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So we would surrender this war on demand?

So, you believe that McCain considers it an existential war that we would nevertheless surrender if the Iraqi government asked us to?

You included the "as do many of us", so I have to ask, do you believe that we should abandon this existential war because the Iraqi war does?

Also, I'd still like to know how we define victory in this 'war on terror'. Clearly there will be no 'terror sues for peace" ceremony. Please clarify what you think we are actually at war with in this existential conflict.

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Look, we just biult the largest...

...Foreign service mission building in the world there. We are not going to stop prosecuting this war in Iraq until the situation is stable. The Iraqi government would not ask us to leave before the goal of defeating the insurgentcy is accomplished, I will say we are almost there.

John McCain says;

"Our goal is an Iraq that can stand on its own as a democratic ally and a responsible force for peace in its neighborhood. Our goal is an Iraq that no longer needs American troops. And I believe we can achieve that goal, perhaps sooner than many imagine. But I do not believe that anyone should make promises as a candidate for President that they cannot keep if elected. To promise a withdrawal of our forces from Iraq, regardless of the calamitous consequences to the Iraqi people, our most vital interests, and the future of the Middle East, is the height of irresponsibility. It is a failure of leadership".

I agree with him. 

 

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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Sorry, but this diary has the same rules as BRs

No avoiding a question based on a projection of what other country's leaders might do or other factors outside of the candidates control.

If the government of Iraq demanded we leave (come elections, it could easily be a Sadrist government or a government that feels the insurgency is within their ability to control even though McCain or Petraeus thinks otherwise) are you suggesting McCain would not depart?

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At this point...

...as the war is essentially won, al Qaeda operations have been defeated.
Al Qaeda can no longer conduct operations effectively. That is not possible. They do not have the infrastructure, and they are geographically limited now to Mosul and the immediate surrounding area.

By the end of the summer or fall, the residue of what is left will be eliminated, but even what is left now is no longer operationally significant.

Therefore I would think John McCain would initiate troop redeployment to Afghanistan if we were requested to move our military out of Iraq by its government.

That being said, I believe the US and Iraqi governments will work together to scale down and redeploy US troops in a mutually responsible fashion.

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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So war on terror = war on Al Qaeda?

I mean Yay! We beat Al Qaeda out of Iraq (which does seem to put us back where we started before we invaded)

Now clearly you consider the invasion of Iraq in the first place a good idea (as does McCain) so the war has to be against more than Al Qaeda. If Iranian influence starts to grow as we left, would that be cause to consider us not yet at victory and stay?

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(No subject)

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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Ok, K-man, I’ll do my

Ok, K-man, I’ll do my best.

First, a couple of notes:

Last week, B Rational had a set of questions concerning Obama's position on Iraq might be if his opinion on Iraq; specifically, what Obama would do if he changed his mind regarding the state of Iraqi capability.

Just for the record, my basic question was what Obama’s position was (and to what extent his position was clear) regarding how long Obama would/might delay withdrawals, if he came to believe that proceeding per his withdrawal timetable would be significantly more likely to result in substantial instability in Iraq than would delaying withdrawals (or delaying them further). You’ve already answered, so I’m not asking again. Just clarifying what my question.

First, re:
1) He has stated that if he were president the US military would not depart until achieving "Victory with Honor"

Please provide a link or two showing the most absolutist statements McCain has made regarding that requirement for withdrawal, stating or implying that that requirement will definitely stand over time and under all circumstances. I know he’s made strong statements, I just want to see if there’s any slight wriggle room in his statements.

1) I don’t know how he defines victory (or “honor” for that matter), any more clearly than “defeat of al Qaeda” and having effective Iraqi security forces capable of securing and defending Iraq, and I’m troubled by such language (“victory” with “honor”) from him, as I explained elsewhere last week http://theforvm.org/diary/john/georgia-russia-what-really-matters-fall-c... . I don’t know if he’s defined it in terms of any clearer criteria, let alone specific metrics, but probably not.

2) You should define “war of choice” and “existential”, and some examples with explanations would help. Which would you consider WWII and why? Same question for the Korean War. I realize you’re asking about McCain’s perspective, but some clarification of those terms (those categories) would help in any attribution of them to McCain’s perspective.

[edit: I forgot to reply to second part of #2, so here goes: First, please provide link to relevant quote(s). Second, yes, I would think there is (or would be) an incongruity between considering a threat to be an "existential threat" and letting another government decide whether or not to allow such a threat to emerge.]

3) First, while I think your question is a hypothetical, my guess is that in reality McCain would deny the trade-off implied by your question. In other words, he would see the total “cost” (broadly-defined) of falling short of this “victory” as greater than the cost of achieving it, including believing that if we fall short in the very short-term, “we’ll be back” and at even higher cost later.

As for your question regarding the cost of continuing the current war, I don’t know what his answer would be, or if he has even thought it through thoroughly in anything even close to a cost/benefit, multi-scenario, decision tree type of analysis (let alone commented publicly in quantitative terms, which I doubt he has). He certainly should do so, at least crudely, but I am far from sure that he has.

4) If there were a higher priority crisis somewhere else in the world (at home or abroad) that required us to leave Iraq before achieving victory, would McCain reverse his promise and leave without honorable victory?

I doubt he has answered this question. As for what he’d actually DO, by definition a higher priority is, well, a higher priority, unless you mean would he NOT do what he thought should be done simply for the sake of keeping a promise, and obviously there could be threats so great that any president would do so. But if your question is about contradictions, then if McCain has made an absolute statement about a required condition for withdrawal, he has engaged in hyperpole which, unless referring to all but what he considers highly unlikely scenarios (and/or what are generally considered by others to be highly unlikely scenarios), may be misleading (and may still be misleading even with regard to highly unlikely scenarios, although a reasonableness standard should be applied to any charge of his being deliberately misleading in such a case). In other words, if it would take something on the order of a Russian attempt to conquer Eastern Europe to get McCain to withdraw troops from Iraq (without his condition having been met) to address that new threat, then it’s not misleading for him to imply an absolute opposition to withdrawing without his condition being met, because that scenario is highly unlikely and because it’s generally understood that there could always be some hypothetical scenario in which a president will (and should) abandon any promise.

5) I doubt he’s addressed that hypothetical. And his position on taxes has been contradictory in its own right, saying a couple of weeks ago that SS FICA tax increases would NOT be “off the table”, but before and since strongly implying that tax increases ARE off the table. He has also flip-flop-flipped (and I think is genuinely confused) about whether or not tax cuts increase revenues and vice-versa. But as for your question, I doubt he’s addressed it, it’s quite possible he hasn’t even thought of it (due to his confusion over the relationship between tax rates and revenues and his apparent (mistaken) belief that it’s at worst something close to a wash – i.e., at least roughly the same revenues coming in if tax rates are lower. As for what I think he’d actually DO, I think he’d raise taxes to make his victory significantly more likely, and if “speeding it up” is part of making victory more likely, then I think he’d raise taxes to do so. But I’m just speculating on his priorities.

6) I don’t know if he’s addressed that question as a hypothetical. My guess is that he hasn’t. As for what he’d actually DO, it depends on what other justifications – short of “honorable victory” -- he saw for continuing the war (e.g., prevention of greater instability and security threats).

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Sounds like you don't see much definition from McCain

1)

I will bring them home in victory. I will not do what the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said would be very dangerous. We will have a stable Iraq that we won't have to return to because we have succeeded in the strategy and we will come home with victory and honor and not in defeat. Sen. Obama has said that if the surge failed that he might have to send troops back. After this surge has succeeded and we’ve won a victory, we’ll never have to send Americans back.

He's pretty consistent on this message with other speeches including the line "And by the way, I will never surrender in Iraq.”

2) We can discuss existential vs wars of choice, but as quick gut check, you'd need to be in favor of a draft as well as food and material rationing before you'd even considering withdrawing. Casualty levels at a level of WWII would need to be considered acceptable (before withdrawing, you could still fire the Generals)

3-4)

my guess is that in reality McCain would deny the trade-off implied by your question.

Of course he would. Just as Obama would deny that trade-off in yours. He'd insist that departing on a well defined timeline with minimal slip would improve stability. But that was insufficient when Obama supporters pointed that out to you.

it’s not misleading for him to imply an absolute opposition to withdrawing without his condition being met, because that scenario is highly unlikely and because it’s generally understood that there could always be some hypothetical scenario in which a president will (and should) abandon any promise.

That seems a bit of a turnabout from your demand for specificity from Obama supporters. You considered 'maintaining flexibility to react to conditions on the ground' to be a dodge when it came from Obama. Why would you accept that type of out for McCain? McCain supporters are JUST as specific that "we'll stay until we win" and dodge the "Unless McCain thinks something more important has come along"

It certainly seems that you are willing to accept a much greater level of dodging from McCain's Iraq position than from Obama.

5) Actually, he has addressed dodged the hypothetical; expressing confusion at the idea that anybody would actually tax someone to pay for a war . So he's been presented with the question and dodged it (suggesting that this is NOT existential in his mind)

6) Of course he hasn't, but if it isn't existential then an evaluation of cost/benefit is necessary is it not?

So, for clarification as any follow up questions will depend on this, do you believe that McCain's stance is consistent with an existential war or not?

My own perspective is that people behave rationally in order to achieve their goals but deceive themselves and others as to what their goals are. So once you figure out what their goals are, their actions and position on the issues will suddenly seem very consistent. So I'd like to explore what set of actual goals you think are consistent with McCain's positions. I have my own opinions, but I'd like to work it through your perspective here.

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My replies below are in

My replies below are in order of statements in your comment.

Sounds like you don't see much definition from McCain

Correct.

Re: #2, McCain’s position seems to be that we face an existential threat from “radical Islamic extremism” (or something like that – although isn’t “radical” and “extremism” somewhat redundant?) and that Iraq is the “central front” in the war against that threat. Therefore, he should be willing to do all of a number of unpleasant things if he thought them critical to achieving the adequate mitigation of this threat, including raising taxes (if he thought that would mean significantly higher revenues), the draft, etc. If he’s been asked about such a scenario and policy choices and has confirmed the above view of the threat but has not agreed that he would impose such sacrifices in such a scenario, than he has either dodged or has contradicted himself.

You quoted me saying:
my guess is that in reality McCain would deny the trade-off implied by your question.

And you commented:
Of course he would. Just as Obama would deny that trade-off in yours. He'd insist that departing on a well defined timeline with minimal slip would improve stability. But that was insufficient when Obama supporters pointed that out to you.

You seem to be implying that I was unaware of that parallel and/or that I was applying a double standard and that I was arguing hypocritically that pointing out McCain’s denial of the trade-off was a sufficient answer to the question. None of the preceding is the case, as the context of that comment should have made clear to you.

You quoted me saying:
it’s not misleading for him to imply an absolute opposition to withdrawing without his condition being met, because that scenario is highly unlikely and because it’s generally understood that there could always be some hypothetical scenario in which a president will (and should) abandon any promise.

And you commented:
That seems a bit of a turnabout from your demand for specificity from Obama supporters. You considered 'maintaining flexibility to react to conditions on the ground' to be a dodge when it came from Obama. Why would you accept that type of out for McCain? McCain supporters are JUST as specific that "we'll stay until we win" and dodge the "Unless McCain thinks something more important has come along"
It certainly seems that you are willing to accept a much greater level of dodging from McCain's Iraq position than from Obama.

Boy, it sure seems that you are trying to see a double standard/hypocrisy where there is none.

First, I never demanded specificity from Obama supporters, only that they EITHER tell me under what conditions, if any, Obama would accept a greater risk of great instability rather than delaying withdrawals further OR tell me that Obama’s position is unclear, and that they do so for whatever scenarios they wish to define. And no, I wouldn’t accept someone saying that Obama’s position – his answer to my question – was clear, and then telling me, for a given scenario involving risk to stability (i.e., potential level of instability or nature or cause of the instability or likelihood or whatever) BOTH that he would definitely withdraw after a maximum delay of X months (or years) AND that he might delay further in the interest of stability, which are obviously contradictory, unless, as I pointed out, one wished to further refine the scenario and perhaps split it into different scenarios based on whatever variable was causing the contradiction. And if someone had a scenario or two for which they would assign one answer as Obama’s position and different answers for other scenarios, I was perfectly fine with that, as I made clear; in fact, I encouraged it, and I certainly did not call it “dodging”.

Second, as for McCain supporters, the same exact rules apply. If they portray McCain’s position in absolute terms, they must either stick to that absolutism or acknowledge whatever scenarios are the exceptions. Otherwise they are contradicting themselves (i.e., being illogical).

My point re: McCain himself was just that it is not necessarily misleading for a candidate to state something in absolute terms even if he’d make an exception under circumstances he considered extremely unlikely, particularly if it was also considered extremely unlikely in general by others, and particularly if it was generally considered an extreme case, as I explained via example.

Bottom line: What the heck are you talking about, k-man?? Maybe ease up on the implications of a double-standard/hypocrisy on my part unless/until you have a better argument supporting that charge.

5) Actually, he has addressed dodged the hypothetical; expressing confusion at the idea that anybody would actually tax someone to pay for a war . So he's been presented with the question and dodged it (suggesting that this is NOT existential in his mind)

Boo! K-man, BOO! You know better than to try to pull that or to be that (conveniently ) sloppy. Show me where in that brief transcript McCain was asked if he would raise taxes if he thought it would “speed up this victory”, or more precisely, if he thought it would make “victory” significantly more likely?

6) Of course he hasn't, but if it isn't existential then an evaluation of cost/benefit is necessary is it not?

Yes, and it would be necessary even if it were an existential threat, since (1) there could be other existential threats, and (2) sometimes nations (and people) decide an existential threat (or level thereof) is worth the risk vs. the alternatives (sometimes I go to the deli at 2a.m. even though there may be “existential threats” walking the streets of Manhattan, and if there “may be”, then there are those threats from the standpoint of my decision to go out there). But generally speaking, the lesser the threat (the farther from a significant probability “existential” threat), the more one should engage in cost/benefit analysis, because generally more goals/priorities become competitive with the goal of reducing/eliminating the threat in question.

do you believe that McCain's stance is consistent with an existential war or not?

I’m not sure. Nothing jumps out at me as glaringly inconsistent, and nothing you’ve presented establishes inconsistency. If you disagree, show me where he has indicated that he would not be willing to make sacrifices that he deemed critical to adequately mitigating this existential threat.

So I'd like to explore what set of actual goals you think are consistent with McCain's positions.

Boy, that’s a pretty open-ended question (if it’s a question). Do you mean what specific, measurable goals? I’ll need a clearer question (not that I’ll necessarily be able to answer it well). Also, if your point is inconsistency between McCain’s stated/implied goals and his positions, maybe we should focus there, with you making the case.

[edit: K-man, I was about to vote for this diary, but when I went to the "vote" page I saw that you had already beaten me to it! I assume that was an accidental mouse click on your part (voting for your own diary). Otherwise, that's a no-no. You might be able to un-do your vote, in which case, I'll be glad to cast mine.]

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The double standard comment is based on your diary title

Which is addressed to Senator Obama and not his supporters. Considering you had a diary calling out one candidate for not giving a straight answer, you get a little grief for doing so while the only other major candidate is also busy dodging fundamental questions on the same issue. While the comment threads eventually became a request that supporters give their understanding, your diary was not (and in fact only addressed the supporters once in an parenthetical comment)

And please, Senator Obama, do not tell me you will “make tactical adjustments based on conditions on the ground” and please don’t tell me “we have to be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in”, and spare me any other vague, deliberately ambiguous non-response responses. Also, please don’t tell me that you don’t expect to face that scenario, unless you are contending that you consider that scenario virtually impossible, in which case I’d really like to hear how you can be so sure that you need not even contemplate that scenario, let alone take a public position on what is arguably the most important issue in this election.

These are the rules you placed on Senator Obama and there is a double standard if you don't put the same rules on Senator McCain.

On your Boo! Statement, I stand by it. Had he responded by saying that he didn't think that it was a decision that needed to be made at this time, I'd probably let it slide. But a "What the heck do taxes and war have to do with one another?!?" attitude counts IMO.

Glaring inconsistency 1 with an existential threat was agreeing that we would definitely leave if asked.
Glaring inconsistency 2 was this quote from McCain when describing the Russia/Georgia incident as "the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War". So 9/11 and Iraq apparently pale in comparison to anything showing a resurgent Russia. And I don't think that was a gaffe or poor wording. I think it was how he honestly feels.

It is this last quote that speaks to me as to McCain's actual goals here. There is a group of hawks whose foreign policy lies entirely in the domain of the Clash of Empires. Iraq/Iran isn't about the Middle East or religious extremism, it is about an emerging China a (possibly resurgent) Russia and, to a lesser degree, the European Union. It is about super-power muscle flexing and spheres of influence and the whole "War on Terror" thing is simply a mobilization strategy. Viewed from that perspective, McCain's behavior and words suddenly make sense and are internally consistent. That makes me pretty confident that McCain is in that group and perceives Iraq is posturing and maneuver in a competition that has absolutely nothing to do with any of the issues that he and his party have been pushing for the last several years. Instead, they are all about putting the Middle East into our sphere of influence and make sure that China and Russia don't perceive any weakness.

Vote fixed.

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Re: the double standard

Re: the double standard charge, it’s invalid, even with regard to my calling out Obama. McCain has been consistent (from primary campaign to general election campaign) and his current position is relatively clear: that except under extraordinary conditions, he opposes a fixed, unconditional timetable for withdrawal, let alone beginning withdrawals immediately upon taking office, and that, at least for the foreseeable future, he would not withdraw unless and until sustainable stability-related goals were achieved. To the best of my knowledge, he has not spelled out the particulars for those goals – which he should, as I’ve pointed out on this thread. He also has not spoken of the limits of his patience and his commitment to the conditions he claims are required for withdrawal, which may be because he thinks that doing so would be counterproductive in terms of policy (as perhaps Obama’s considers speaking of the potential for abandoning his timetable, if he thinks that bluffing absolute commitment to the timetable, give or take a few months, is critical to favorable results in Iraq – something I pointed out, either on the SC thread or over on Forvm, although what distinguishes Obama’s case is discussed below).

Contrast that with Obama’s position. During the primary campaign, he very strongly implied that he would begin withdrawals immediately upon taking office, and that he would proceed from start to finish (aside from a residual force) in roughly 16 months, with perhaps minor delays in the interest of stability. He did not, to my knowledge, state explicitly that he would not even consider further delay if he came to view further delay as in the interest of stability (generally considered as preventing civil war with sectarian killings, either in itself or with potential for genocide and/or invasion), but in the context of the centrality of that question to the Iraq debate and to the differentiation of Democratic candidates from the Republicans (and to some extent Obama from Hillary), and considering that he had been asked directly and repeatedly dodged the question, his omission was a clear (even if implicit) indication that his timetable was NOT contingent upon maintaining stability. Then, on July 3 (for the general election campaign), he shifted to deliberately to carefully crafted, ambiguous language designed to have it both ways, saying that “the pace of withdrawal” would be “dictated by our need to maintain stability”. The reaction was swift and pronounced, with the far left (understandably) alarmed that that statement indicated a possible abandonment of his unconditional timetable and the right accusing him (rightly, at least in terms of ambiguity) of flip-flopping to move to the center for the general election.

In the weeks that followed I encountered many Obama supporters in the blogosphere who insisted that Obama’s position was clear, but who repeatedly tried to have it both ways – his position was that he was absolutely committed to his rough timetable, but he wouldn’t stick to it if it would jeopardize stability. Obama’s strategy of ambiguity appeared to be working. And that’s where I came in with my diary.

And as for your charge that McCain’s position is internally inconsistent – supposedly characterizing “victory” in Iraq as necessary to remove an existential threat while being unwilling to adopt policies that he considers (or are generally considered by others to be) critical to such “victory” – you have not made a valid case for that. Show me what policies he (or generally others) considers critical to “victory” that he is unwilling to adopt.

Which brings me to…

On your Boo! Statement, I stand by it. Had he responded by saying that he didn't think that it was a decision that needed to be made at this time, I'd probably let it slide. But a "What the heck do taxes and war have to do with one another?!?" attitude counts IMO.

I repeat, show me where in that brief transcript McCain was asked if he would raise taxes if he thought it would “speed up this victory”, or more precisely, if he thought it would make “victory” significantly more likely? All you’ve shown is a guy who doesn’t see the connection between raising taxes now and the likelihood of “victory”. So not only it clearly does NOT meet the condition of a policy that he considers critical, or even conducive, to “victory”. And you also haven’t established that it is generally believed by others (i.e., strong consensus among experts or other relevant group) that raising taxes is critical to (or significantly increases the chances of) “victory” in Iraq. Just repeating that you think it counts is not an argument. If you have an argument for why that transcript supports your point, then make the argument. Otherwise, concede that the transcript does not support your point.

As just a note, I just watched the video of that interview, and the transcript leaves out the word “now” in the question – “So you would resist asking more affluent Americans to pay more taxes pay more taxes now…?”

Glaring inconsistency 1 with an existential threat was agreeing that we would definitely leave if asked.

As I said in my initial comment on this thread:
yes, I would think there is (or would be) an incongruity between considering a threat to be an "existential threat" and letting another government decide whether or not to allow such a threat to emerge.

In fairness to McCain, if his honest answer is that we would NOT leave if the Iraqi government told us to leave, what could he say upon being asked (other than dodging the question by denying the premise of the hypothetical) – to say, with the Iraqi people, the Iraqi government, and the world watching, that we would NOT leave if the Iraqi government demanded that we leave? Honesty (or even, arguably, dodging the question) in that case would clearly be unwise, and I think most people understand that, and understand that such an answer may not be honest.

By the way, you should produce the relevant quote(s). I’m not saying I don’t think you can; I just think it’s a good practice, in case there is some subtlety or other aspect of the quote(s) worth discussing.

As for the broad strategy you suspect McCain of having, that’s obviously a much broader subject and far afield from the question you pose in your diary of whether or not McCain’s apparent characterization of “victory” in Iraq as critical to removing an existential threat is inconsistent with his policy statements/implications. You haven’t made much of a case for that inconsistency. Seems that all you’ve got is his (or a spokesperson’s) statement (which I’m granting arguendo, although again, I’d like you to provide the quote), in response to a question (I think), that we’d leave if the Iraqi government told us to leave, which, as I’ve explained, is understandable as a public statement even if it’s a lie (a bluff).

If you have a better case for the inconsistency you allege, please make it. I see very little so far.

Vote added.

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I suspect some (anti)-ideology is creeping in here

Obama has also been consistent that barring extraordinary circumstances, he'd be withdrawing within 16 months of taking office. If you Google your chosen gotcha quote "dictated by our need to maintain stability" you see that he clarified the same day

Obama said he was speaking about how many troops may need to remain in Iraq to train the local army and police and what troop presence might be needed "`to be sure al-Qaeda doesn't re-establish a foothold there."

He said he intends to stick to his plans to have all troops out within 16 months but that if the safety of American troops dictated a slower pace, "of course we would take that into account."

You have expressed your disagreement with Obama's Iraqi plans for quite some time now and you seem to be looking for the tiniest sliver of uncertainty for some reason that escapes me.

One of several actual quotes

Let me give you a hypothetical, senator. What would or should we do if, in the post-June 30th period, a so-called sovereign Iraqi government asks us to leave, even if we are unhappy about the security situation there? I understand it's a hypothetical, but it's at least possible.
McCAIN: Well, if that scenario evolves, then I think it's obvious that we would have to leave because— if it was an elected government of Iraq— and we've been asked to leave other places in the world. If it were an extremist government, then I think we would have other challenges, but I don't see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.

Clearly having the Iraqi people in charge of Iraq is an existential concern for the US.

Here's McCain explaining why we are really in Iraq

I have to say, I find this to be pretty stunning:

In fairness to McCain, if his honest answer is that we would NOT leave ......Honesty (or even, arguably, dodging the question) in that case would clearly be unwise, and I think most people understand that, and understand that such an answer may not be honest.

So just to clarify, you are OK with him lying to you and to the rest of the electorate as long as he is consistent about it while running for office?

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Allow me to define some words

If it were an extremist government, then I think we would have other challenges, but I don't see how we could stay when our whole emphasis and policy has been based on turning the Iraqi government over to the Iraqi people.

I take it an extremist government would be defined one that would ask us to leave.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Re: your first Obama-related

Re: your first Obama-related quote, link please (so I can see what he actually said and in what context).

you seem to be looking for the tiniest sliver of uncertainty for some reason that escapes me.

Pardon?? Since Obama's July 3 statement -- and his lack of clarification in statements he made shortly thereafter under the pretense of clarification, including his NYT op-ed -- I've been up and down and all around with Obama supporters (mostly on Forvm) who said Obama's position is clear, yet couldn't tell me what it was, other than in vague, ambiguous terms (e.g., "he'd make tactical adjustments based on conditions on the ground"), and who repeatedly tried to have it both ways on the fundemantal, central policy question I posed to them and pressed them to answer. No, I haven't been "looking for the tiniest sliver of uncertainty" -- I saw a candidate trying to expand his appeal in the general election via a shift to carefully crafted ambiguity on this very important policy question, so I asked his supporters on the blogosphere about it (mostly on Forvm), and most of them apparently hadn't really thought about it and apparently couldn't tell me what Obama's position was (his answer to my question) if their lives depended on it.

So just to clarify, you are OK with him lying to you and to the rest of the electorate as long as he is consistent about it while running for office?

I think it would have been better to dodge the question in some clever way via vague language that sounds respectful of Iraqi sovereignty (for the Iraqi and worldwide audience) but was not really committal. But I'm not very disturbed by that particular lie, a strategic bluff, in the context of an answer to a question, given (I'm assuming) that McCain's honest answer would have been that he wouldn't (or at least wouldn't necessarily) leave Iraq upon request of even a non-"extremist" Iraqi government. I ask you: Given the damage that answering that question directly and honestly could do, do you think it would have been wise or responsible for McCain to have answered directly and honestly (assuming his honest answer would have been what we suspect)? Put aside what you think of such a position (not leaving even if asked by the Iraqi government), or even, for the sake of this exercise, pretend you favor the position that we should not necessarily leave Iraq upon being asked by the Iraqi government, but rather should take our own interests into account, as well as what we saw as the interests of the Iraqi population or some segments thereof (e.g., minority segments that could be slaughtered), and the interests of other nations, and perhaps we'd decide not to leave. And suppose a direct and honest answer could be very detrimental to our pursuit of various strategic goals in Iraq and around the world (because it would harm the image among Iraqis of the Iraqi leadership and cause the latter to become more hostile to us, and because it would make the U.S. look to many, rightly or wrongly, as an international bully that didn't respect the sovereignty of a nation with a democratically-elected government). Would giving a direct and honest answer have been the right thing for McCain to do? Does his lie really appal you? Or is it really just his true position that you hate -- that we might not leave even if asked by the Iraqi government?

And as I've said more than once previously (either here or on Forvm), it is at least plausible that it would be wise for Obama to similarly bluff regarding unconditionality of his withdrawal timetable (the unconditionality he strongly implied during the primaries, and tried to distance himself from in July), if he thought that convincing the Iraqis of this unconditional nature was critical to, or highly conducive to, favorable developments occurring.

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Liberals just cannot stop

Liberals just cannot stop spreading pr0n and other immoral material.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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lol

I was gonna delete that spam comment but I'll just edit it to preserve yours.

Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson

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