Welcome to the Islamic Republic of Waziristan

First, an introduction.

Waziristan has formally been a part of Pakistan, but not really. It is in a region known as FATA, short for Federally Administered Tribal Area, which has actually had little or no federal administration since 1947.

Basically, these are a bunch of bad asses and the Pakistan government has pretty much left them alone for years. They have reputations as fierce warriors, but since they mostly fight amongst themselves it was never considered worth it to mess with them.

Until 2002, that is, when Pakistan President Musharraf, hoping to please his ally George Bush, sent troops to Waziristan to clean out the al Qaeda types who had taken up lodging there. But, as military adventures are wont to do, this one went badly.

It was in July 2002 that Pakistani troops, for the first time in 55 years, entered the Tirah Valley in Khyber tribal agency. Soon they were in Shawal valley of North Waziristan, and later in South Waziristan.

This was made possible after long negotiations with various tribes, who reluctantly agreed to allow the military's presence on the assurance that it would bring in funds and development work.

But once the military action started in South Waziristan a number of Waziri sub-tribes took it as an attempt to subjugate them.

Attempts to persuade them into handing over the foreign militants failed, and with an apparently mishandling by the authorities, the security campaign against suspected al-Qaeda militants turned into an undeclared war between the Pakistani military and the rebel tribesmen.

Now, Waziristan is not a big place and it's actually divided into North and South Waziristan. North Waziristan -- about the size of Connecticut -- is where the Taliban roam.

In fact, North Waziristan is close to where we attacked a house in January with a missile from a Predator drone aircraft hoping to kill Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden's deputy. Didn't get Zawahiri, but we did get a few al Qaeda along with a number of civilians.

The shit pretty much hit the fan after that and got bad enough that Musharraf's government made a lot of noise about formally protesting the action to the United States.

It's probably not a coincidence that a month later the Taliban declared the new Islamic Republic of Waziristan to be an independent country. And they have demonstrated that they don't like anyone screwing around with them:

Aurkazai said that since late 2004, about 70 tribesmen have been killed, mostly for cooperating with the government; other officials report more than 100 such deaths. A senior officer in Pakistan's intelligence service, speaking on condition of anonymity, said at least 30 of its informants were assassinated, often beheaded and their heads displayed in a public place.

On Aug. 7, the decapitated corpse of a 38-year-old former militant-turned-informer, Loi Khan, was dumped in a North Waziristan village. An attached note read: "See this man's body. Anyone spying on us will face the same end."

Of course, the Taliban couldn't just move in and set up a new country without local support. They came to power the same way they did in Afghanistan -- by bringing order to chaos. Basically, the Taliban ran off the local gangsters.

A group of Taliban fighters were heading to Khost to launch an operation in Afghanistan when they were stopped by some criminals demanding money for safe passage. The Taliban refused, and were allowed to pass. However, a few kilometers further down the road the criminals fired a rocket and blew up the vehicle. Four Taliban belonging to the Wazir tribe were killed.

The incident outraged local supporters of the Taliban, who converged near Miramshah and warned people to leave their homes if they lived near criminals. A raid was then conducted on one criminal sanctuary. In a fierce 15-minute gun battle, several gangsters were killed, some were seized and many fled.

Over the next three days, according to the video, the Taliban smoked out numerous criminals from their hideouts all over North Waziristan. Many were executed at mass rallies in Miramshah Bazaar.

In a similar manner, the Taliban emerged as a reformist movement against criminals and warlords in Zabul and Kandahar in Afghanistan about 16 years ago.

Headless bodies hanging upside down on public display apparently has had a deterrent effect on criminals in Waziristan. And the locals have repaid the favor with loyalty.

So, by February, the Taliban was said to be preparing for a summer offensive against Musharraf government forces.

The Taliban have attracted thousands of foot soldiers from all over, including Arabs, Chechens, Pakistanis, Afghans, Uzbeks and local tribals. North Waziristan is now their "Islamic state" and base from which to launch a summer offensive in Afghanistan.

According to Asia Times Online investigations, more than 100 suicide squads have been lined up for the summer assault. These squads have precise targets all over Afghanistan. The Taliban leadership is also encouraged by the strong representation of Islamists in the new Afghan parliament as potential supporters.

The Taliban have already disseminated warnings to all the governors in the south and southeast of Afghanistan not to mobilize forces in search of the Taliban - or else they will face the music in the form of suicide attacks.

And by the end of this summer, Musharraf had seen enough. He had sent 80,000 troops to pacify the region and suffered three times as many casualties as the United States has suffered in Afghanistan.

On July 25, 2006, the militants in North Waziristan had announced a ceasefire which they subsequently extended to September 10, 2006, as Leader of Opposition in National Assembly Maulana Fazlur Rehman joined efforts to help clear some obstacles to an agreement for restoring peace in the restive tribal region. Two of the three issues that have bedeviled the peace agreement have already been taken care of: the release of over a dozen militants and the return of seized weaponry.

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As the recruitment drive started last year, many former members of Pakistani jehadi organizations belonging to the banned Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami (HuJI), Laskhar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), have converged on North and South Waziristan. According to rough estimates, about 25,000 activists of several jehadi organisation had assembled in North and South Waziristan alone in 2005, with the declared determination to "fight until the last man and the last bullet". And most of them are still siding with the local Taliban in their ongoing fight against the Pakistani security forces.

So, Musharraf gave them back their guns, released their prisoners and -- as of yesterday -- agreed to pull out entirely and leave them alone. The Taliban promised to be nice from now on -- allowing Musharraf a measure of face saving.

Oh, and Musharraf gave them a truckload of cash too:

According to the official sources, senior army officers and Taliban militants hugged and congratulated each other after inking the agreement at a school in Miran Shah.

The breakthrough was achieved after the military accepted most of the militants' demands -- the release of all their men, return of their weapons and vehicles seized during various army operations, dismantling of the army check posts in the area, restoration of all perks and privileges of the tribal people and monetary compensation for all those residents of the area who were either killed and whose property was damaged during military operations.

The amount demanded by the militants as compensation is not known but a government official said the figure was enormous.

So now there is a Taliban state in Waziristan. No other nation has formally recognized them and they aren't about to take a seat at the U.N., but being in control of their territory, they meet the main criteria for nationhood. And since they no longer have the Pakistani army to deal with, they are free to run operations across the border into Afghanistan with impunity.

Let there be no doubt, al-Qaeda has carved a new safe haven from Pakistani territory. Similar negotiations are ongoing for more territory within Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) which neighbors North Waziristan. While there may be written agreements to cease cross border attacks into Afghanistan, heeded or not, a power shift of arms and men from the newly established safe haven into the North-West Frontier Province to bolster efforts there is only logical. Musharraf has clearly set the precedent for disengagement and concession.

On this day, if there is a shadow government in Waziristan, it is the long shadow cast by a distant Pakistani government. For today, the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan lives.

It is not known whether the Taliban have a national anthem or whether they will field an Olympic team, but they do have radio:

These militants are now regulating moral life, administering justice, and enforcing their version of Sharia in the region. Their control is so complete that one of their clerical allies has set up an FM Radio Station in the neighboring town of Bara near Peshawar to air his religious broadcasts against non-Salafi Muslims.

So why would Bush go along with Musharraf's appeasement?

It seems that Musharraf was concerned that the revolt in Waziristan might spread to other areas of Pakistan. Or perhaps his war had become so unpopular in Pakistan that it had become too much of a risk. Either way, Washington has always been careful not to undermine Musharraf too much for fear he might be overthrown and an Islamic government might take his place and acquire his nukes.

So what happens now? Probably not much. Bush is not about to invade Waziristan. And since the existence of a Taliban state would be an embarrassment, Bush is unlikely to even acknowledge it.

Rather -- it'll become an endless NATO border pacification operation, an open wound that bleeds a few casualties at a time but not enough to get noticed much -- especially having to compete for attention with the carnage in Iraq.

The guy who should be most worried is Hamid Karzai. Because  one day we will declare victory and leave and the Taliban will once again rule Afghanistan.