A great AEI-Brookings joint study by Clifford Winston (http://www.aei-brookings.org/publications/abstract.php?pid=1117) was released not too long ago presenting extensive evidence that government programs that claim to address "market failures" suffer extensively from a problem of their own: "government failure."
An additional thirty years of empirical evidence on the efficacy of market failure policies initiated primarily by the federal government, but also by the states, suggests that the welfare cost of government failure may be considerably greater than that of market failure. More specifically, the evidence suggests that policymakers have attempted to correct market failures with policies designed to affect either consumer or firm behavior, or both, or to allocate resources. Some policies have forced the U.S. economy to incur costs in situations where no serious market failure exists, while others, in situations where costly market failures do exist, could have improved resource allocation in a much more efficient manner.
Disappointingly, Winston, after extensive research of "scholarly assessments of federal policies that are published in journals and books", was forced to conclude:
My search of the evidence is not limited to policy failures; I report success stories, but few of them emerged from my search..
Worse, his conclusions are not even terribly controversial in economic circles.
my assessment of the empirical evidence reveals a surprising degree of consensus about the paucity of major policy successes in correcting a market failure efficiently. In contrast to the sharp divisions that characterize debates over the efficacy of macroeconomic policy interventions, I found only a handful of empirical studies that disagree about whether a particular government policy had enhanced efficiency by substantially correcting a market failure. [...] researchers who used vastly different methodological techniques to assess specific policies often reached very similar conclusions.
Let me just pick out a few examples of his findings, starting with transportation policy:
Public management of roads is characterized by substantial pricing, investment, and production inefficiencies (these issues are discussed in Small, Winston, and Evans 1989). [...] gasoline taxes are an inefficient pricing mechanism because they are basically invariant to changes in traffic volume throughout the day and are inversely related to a truck’s weight per axle (that is, trucks with more axles that reduce pavement damage get lower fuel economy and pay higher gasoline taxes). [...] Small, Winston, and Evans (1989) estimated that replacing gasoline taxes with marginal cost congestion tolls and pavement-wear taxes and building roads to optimal pavement thickness would generate an annual welfare gain of $23.9 billion. Congestion tolls that vary by time of day and location would reduce delays and make efficient use of scarce road capacity. In addition, efficient highway tolls, which reduce excessive driving during peak periods, would justify a substantial reduction in (inefficient) highway expenditures.
How about agriculture?
Government regulation (subsidization) of [agricultural] markets cannot be justified on economic grounds; thus, commodity price support programs basically amount to transfers from consumers to producers that generate annual net welfare losses of $3.0 billion to $12.4 billion (Rausser 1992; Robinson, Kilkenny, and Adelman 1989). The dairy support program also generates welfare losses that approach $1 billion a year (Helmberger and Chen 1994).
How about trade and tariffs?
Feenstra (1992) draws on several studies and puts the annual net cost to the United States of tariffs and quotas between $12 billion and $18 billion. To add insult to injury, import prices are raised by the 1920 Jones Act, which increases the cost of transporting imported goods by requiring that coastal shipping be on U.S.-built and U.S.-owned vessels.
How about safety regulations?
NHTSA has tried to inform automobile consumers by making the results of automobile crash tests available to the public. Hoffer, Pruitt, and Reilly (1992) argued that consumers paid little attention to the government’s information and relied on other sources of safety performance such as trade publications. Apparently, this was a wise choice because the authors found that NHTSA’s crash test data were a poor predictor of vehicle safety.
Or:
Kniesner and Leeth (2004) estimated that the costs of [the Mine Safety and Health Administration's] activities are more than double the benefits. Its budget is large—on a per establishment basis, it is 400 times larger than OSHA’s budget—and its deterrence is weak.
How about environmental regulations?
Hamilton and Viscusi (1999) concluded that [...] Superfund failed to allocate its resources to the environmental problems posing the greatest social costs. For example, 95 percent of expenditures were used for projects that eliminated only 0.5 percent of the cancer risk at those waste sites. The median cost per life saved, $388 million, is two orders of magnitude above conventional estimates of the value of life (Viscusi 1993; Viscusi and Aldy 2003).
Or:
The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 set national energy efficiency standards for major appliances. Sutherland (1991) pointed out that the standards raised consumers’ initial capital costs and lowered operating costs for these appliances, but he found no evidence that this trade-off improved on the efficiency of appliances that would exist absent the standards. Newell, Jaffe, and Stavins (1999) decomposed the sources of energy efficiency for room air conditioners and gas water heaters and found that increases in energy prices and better technology accounted
for most of the improvements; energy efficiency standards appear to have had a small effect.
Or:
To the extent that it has increased fuel economy for new vehicles, CAFE has actually encouraged some people to drive more, and by raising vehicle prices the standards have increased emissions because they have encouraged people to retain their used vehicles longer (Kleit 2004; Portney and others 2003). [...] Godek (1997) found that CAFE caused consumers to shift to light trucks (vans, minivans, and SUVs) instead of small cars and estimated that 50 percent of the increase in the share of light trucks since the 1970s could be attributed to CAFE, thereby offsetting 75 percent of the vehicle weight that would have been lost otherwise. The shift to light trucks increased fuel consumption, and although light trucks increase their occupants’ safety, they increase injury severity from a collision to occupants of smaller vehicles and to pedestrians, bicyclists, and motorcyclists.
The hits just keep coming. I strongly recommend that you read the whole thing.
__________________________
Market failure
Most senior economists now realize that the fundamental beliefs about a free market and the "invisible hand" are not an accurate model of how the world actually works.
The fact that there are still some true believers at such places like AEI does not change this.
If government regulation of markets hasn't worked well in some areas it is not necessarily because the market was regulated, but because the regulations were put in to advantage one group over another.
The reason for this preferential treatment is that our democratic process has broken down. Special interests control most of the legislation that gets enacted. So farm policies favor ADM who just coincidently happens to be the largest contributor to the relevant politician's campaigns.
As to the trustworthiness of the AEI itself:
http://thinkprogress.org/2007/02/01/oil-lobby-payments/
__________________________--- Policies not Politics
rdf
Can you address the negative savings rate.
The economy is thriving yet savings rates are in the negative.
__________________________It is the economy, stupid.
Sure
There was an important, but mostly forgotten book published in 1948 that explained this.
"Income Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior" by James Duesenberry.
He did a study of spending during the depression and other periods of economic distress. What he found was that people tried to maintain their standard of living even when their income had dropped.
The most common condition he studied was outright unemployment, but our present stagnation is similar. People feel they "belong" to a certain economic strata and don't want to adjust their lifestyle. They feel that whatever economic pinch they are currently feeling will be temporary and will thus dip into savings or borrow to keep their level of consumption up.
It is only after a long period of time that they will modify their behavior to conform to their new conditions. Because of the recently invented ability of people to extract value from their homes many have been able to live beyond their income for an extended period.
When and how this current trend will come to an end is the $64 question. The decline in housing prices and the rise in interest rates means that the refinancing avenue is drying up for many people. On the other hand unemployment is down and wages are up slightly so people may be able to keep their heads above water even if their housing and other costs rise.
My guess is that the big adjustment will come right after the 2008 elections. The present admin is doing everything in its power to push the costs of the wars and the repayment of the deficits into the future. If the Dems win they stand a good chance of being "blamed" for the recession they will inherit.
__________________________--- Policies not Politics
Lies and statistics
http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&statu...
because they are saving by spending
or investing.
Unless investments are liquid you have not saved for a rainy day.
I can't eat my car, but I can live in it.
__________________________It is the economy, stupid.
That's saving too
When you buy a car, that is an asset that has resale value. If you buy a car on credit, your principal payments on the loan, properly understood, *are* savings. The same is true of a house. Your mortgage payments are part savings (the principal portion) and part consumption (the interest portion).
You can't eat your car, but you can "trade down" by selling, say, a $20K car to buy a $10K car.
You can't eat your house, but you can trade down, cash out and switch back to renting, or get a home equity loan.
In the end what matters is net worth. Borrowing $500K at 6% to buy a house is one thing; borrowing $10K at 20% from your credit card to go on a shopping spree is another thing entirely. The former can be a very good thing for your net worth, while the latter will probably not.
If you have $100K in home equity and $25K in credit card debt, that's not the end of the world. Just take out a home equity loan to pay off your credit card debt and you'll save boatloads of money (and make sure not to run up the card again).
Plenty of lies and statistics to go around
I suspect however that neither you nor the author (nor in fact myself or anybody I know) would propose to do this, which makes this statistic pretty much irrellevant. The question is what is the actual distribution of this wealth compared to before. After all, 1 person with 54 trillion paints a very different picture than 'people have, on the average, almost half a million dollars each!'.
That distribution btw would also answer your issue about the growing (or not) gap between wealthy and the poor. So; any idea where to find that data?
Private failure brought 1929 Depression
What saved America in 1929--Government.
Govt is not all bad,
Private is not all bad
The thing is there should be a right balance.
146 pages of drivel from an AEI paper.
I can't say how much PDF bores me, but I took the time & looked over some of the paper. I'll admit to having a predisposition that isn't positive towards most AEI notions. This one seems to fit right in line of what I expect from them.
There are points that sound clear and reasonable. Their answers, or rather, the author's notions of the problems and the fixes are all too typical of this think tank. Regulation bad. Completely unfettered/unregulated market good. It's almost a caveman's view of economic theory and it's impact on the populace.
I agree, we shouldn't require regulations that cost 1 Billion dollars for each person saved, but that was an over the top example they dreamed up to create the illusion that they are reasonable. No where did it ever list where these unreasonable requirements ever came about.
But.....I'll give you credit for having a paper that we can objectively discuss. And the idea that there has to be some cost benefit analysis isn't something we on the liberal side are completely or reflexively against. Until you start coming into area's like the health of the planet. How much does a healthy planet go for these days? Does WalMart have any mark-downs we can get one on the cheap? To sacrifice "some" future profit for the sake of a healthier planet makes way more sense than allowing stockholders & upper management increase their wealth at the expense of something that is not theirs to barter with - ie a healthy planet.
Since Ender seems to have stepped out for the day
if you're looking to generate some cross-party discussion you might wish to consider posting this at theforvm.org as well; if you want to aim at a conservative audience I guess redstate.com is the most obvious choice. Seems like for the moment it's you against the liberals here =)
My quibble is with the bit about safety regulations -- naturally you can argue about efficiency and whatnot, but isn't it fair to say that diminishing safety regulations are an inevitable market failure absent governmental oversight? History would certainly appear to suggest so (e.g, the early 1900s), although maybe our more litigious society would provide a natural incentive for companies to maintain safe conditions for workers... probably not what the author had in mind, heh.
The transportation and agriculture bits I buy, at least upon initial reading.
__________________________Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Chopped Liver
Is it just me or is there an implication in your first paragraph.
What is SC chopped liver.........
I thought SC was looking to keep conservatives, not chase them away.
__________________________It is the economy, stupid.
Nah
Just pointing out possible additional places where the diary might receive a somewhat different reaction, in case LZ were interested. Doesn't mean I don't want him to post here by any means, and sorry if I gave that impression. On the contrary, I want our few conservatives to feel warmly welcome here as we slowly change their minds =)
__________________________Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
Ugly truth
The ugly truth about regulation (when done fairly) is that it doesn't cost business anything.
Let's take employment conditions as an example. Companies are forced to provide a safe workplace, pay a decent wage and provide overtime pay. Now if all companies have to follow the same rules then no company gets a competitive advantage.
The companies costs go up, however and they squawk. But since all companies are in the same boat they are free to raise their prices to compensate (or take a lesser profit it they think this will give them a market advantage). So the costs get passed on to the consumer.
But, of course, all costs get passed on to the consumer - there is no one else to pay. So the net effect of regulation is that some social good gets done and the costs of doing it get spread over the greater population.
When companies push for relaxed regulation what they really want is to have unfair regulations put in place which give them a relative advantage. Getting them to admit that this is their real motive is not likely to happen.
__________________________--- Policies not Politics
False -- deadweight loss
You are viewing regulations, etc. as a pure transfer of resources from party A to party B. That's half of the story, but it misses what's important: the deadweight loss.
Yes, when you (for example) set workplace labor and safety regulations, that increases the cost to businesses. Yes, businesses pass on those costs to consumers. End of story, everyone comes out OK? Nope.
What you have done is increased the marginal cost of labor. This will cause ripples through the economy. For example, businesses that face tradeoffs between labor and capital will now choose more capital-intensive modes of production (a substitution effect). Businesses that are by necessity labor-intensive (e.g. service industries) will face disproportionately high costs relative to more capital-intensive businesses. Etc. These shifts all hurt efficiency.
The following page gives some good examples, including a graphical illustration: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadweight_loss
A suggestion: I think it would be better if we all stuck to "type C" arguments on this site rather than "type M" arguments. The following article explains what I am talking about: http://www.techcentralstation.com/100703B.html
dead weight
I suppose the dead weight you are referring to is the cumulative weight of all the dead workers who weren't covered by health and safety regulations.
The problem with the libertarian world view is that it only judges things by money. The social costs or benefits of polices are given no value. If you want to count purchases as savings then you better start including externalities in deciding the "costs" of business regulation.
Right now the ecological economists are trying to find a way to force societies to account for the externalities of pollution and resource depletion. The fact that economic models have ignored them up until now has allowed businesses to deny their existence. Mother nature is starting to demand that we change our perceptions.
__________________________--- Policies not Politics
Your apparent assumption
that those who disagree with you lack your concern for the wellbeing of others makes discussion difficult... as detailed in the C/M link above.
__________________________Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
His assumption is one that it is difficult not to make
NO matter how many statistics you quote.
__________________________It is the economy, stupid.
Economic models have not ignored externalities
Would you care to provide evidence for this claim? Every intro to economics textbook I have ever seen has at least one full chapter, usually more, on positive and negative externalities, public goods, asymmetric information, monopoly/monopsony, and other forms of "market failure" -- cases where a free market does not result in a Pareto-efficient outcome.
Here are
Government Success Stories
and
Free-Market Failures
This website comes on top of the google search for free market failures.
__________________________Sic semper tyrannis
About Debt
This recommended diary on DailyKos has lots of interesting charts:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/2/4/9158/20950
Perhaps some of you would like to comment on the data either here or there.
__________________________--- Policies not Politics