Weekend Open Thread

Wow, I am amazed at how much Obama has tackled in the first few weeks of his presidency: SCHIP , the Ledbetter Pay Act ,  the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act , an outline our withdraw from Iraq , and a budget that gives a down payment on universal health-care .  I am shocked at how effecient Obama is at advancing a progressive agenda. While he has battles ahead, I am glad the American public massively stands behind him and makes other movements seem fringe at this moment.

It is a good day for the Democrats when Limbaugh is the loudest voice in the Republican party and the figurehead of a Red State will become the Health and Human Service Secretary.

Of course there are colossal and enormous challenges  and ahead, but I would not want anyone else in charge at this moment.

 

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The Birther Conspiracy

Birth Certificate Gate

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0209/19450.html

Meanwhile, the Birthers' persistence has prompted another, competing conspiracy theory on the right.

"I'm not a conspiracist, but this could be a very big conspiracy to make conservatives disgrace themselves," Medved said.

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Can't you see.

The only way Obama is not a citizen is if:

He wasn't born in the US.
AND
His mother, isn't his real mother and his real mother is not a US citizen.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Actually

One of those wacky sites actually made a pretty good argument against Obama's eligibility if you presume he wasn't born in US territory.  Since only one parent was a US citizen at the time, there are stricter conditions for transferrence of citizenship.  Something about her age (18 or 19 at the time) and the fact she had lived outside the country since she was 14.  The statutes are a bit complicated.

Of course it's all moot because he was born in Hawaii and the birth certificate flap is nonsense.

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It's way more complicated...or not...

Here is Bergs website .

Underlying all arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. ~M. Friedman

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Obama's Justice Dept following in dubya's footsteps.

www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/02/28/al_haramain/index.html

That's Glenn Greenwald's take on the Justice Department's continuing use of 'National Security' in trying to smother lawsuites & investigations of warrentless spying.  In the pre-bush43 days, the government used to be able to suppress evidence in cases using national security as a reason but they weren't able to supress the court case or investigation by claiming it.  In the past we depended on the professionality of our Judges to make the call.  I don't support the government being able to blanketly say 'national security' and get something tossed.

Please understand, I think spying should be allowed but I think the goernment needs to go through the FISA system allways. 

So....I would figure that most of the conservatives here don't want an Obama Administration from having carte blanch in proclaiming national security.  How do we set up a good arbitrator we can trust who can sort out what is truely a compelling national security issue & what is a convienent cover up?

And I agree with Glenn.  By continuing to use the bush43 Administrations legal tactics in cases the bush administration has set up, Obama will come to own the excesses and the constitutional tramplings just as surely as if he had done those things himself.

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You can't.

How do we set up a good arbitrator we can trust who can sort out what is truely a compelling national security issue & what is a convienent cover up?

And I'm not sure we should try, either.  Or at least I haven't seen a compelling argument as to why.  But that's more a reflection of my opinion of FISA rather than whether or not we should try to control the 500 lb. gorilla we just released into the room.

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I didn't like Bush's Admin doing it. I don't like Obama's Admin

doing it any better.  In fact I'm a little more miffed because a 'progressive' is litigating in a manner i would prefer was unconstitutional.  So I'm against it.

Just cause it's my guy doing it doesn't make it OK, even if that's what they did last administration.

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Exactly, kindness.

 I admittedly didn't vote for either Obama OR McCain (I did a write-in vote at the polls, instead), but I totally agree with you here.  

Here's another thing that I find ironic, although it's a tad or so off-topic here:  Had McCain (not that I would've wanted McCain as POTUS either, mind you), rather than Obama, been elected POTUS and continued sending extra troops into Afghanistan, or backpedaled on getting out of Iraq at a specific time, lots of these same people would be screaming like banshees for McCain's head.

 

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Yeah, Obama's definitely

Yeah, Obama's definitely getting a lot  done, I think in one year he'll beat the Bush deficit for his whole first term. It takes a leader like Obama to increase debt so fast.

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If you are honest

 then you have to recognize that the Obama budget is replacing the money that Wall Street and it's banking friends stole as a pretense that it was investing in the global economy.

It's a simple as that.

 

 

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Otherwise known as...

A.K.A. monetary inflation in the name of price stability.  But it's a bit like pulling tension on a horizontal cable.  You can never pull it perfectly horizontal.  Just as modifying the money supply will never stabilize prices as it *ta-da* changes the value of the money itself and that effect ripples through every other price structure.  It's like watching a train wreck.

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Or just replacing the money

 that was stolen. 

 Inflation is not the problem right now, deflation is. 

 I am thinking that your idea of avoiding a train wreck is to blow up the rail road tracks, the train, and the human toll will just be just a necessary correction.

 The how to handbook of discussing economic repair  with a nihilist.  Blow it up.

 

 

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No. Not really.

Inflation is not the problem right now, deflation is.

CRB Spot Index

Even after you take the initial spike after Bretton Woods was thrown out, you can see we were on a massive commodity price inflation high.  The "deflation" you are trying to prevent is simply a market correction for a decade of bad monetary policy.  The policies you advocate (and since you stated you would have preffered more deficiti spending over any tax breaks) are an attempt to hold prices flat at a level that cannot be sustained.  You are advocating making things worse and making them worse for a lot longer.

If you are going to criticize my preffered method to "fix the economy" then you might at least know something of what you're talking about first.  I look forward to your comprehensive and fact filled (with links, please!) reply!

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For the sake

 of our financial health I hope you are right. 

 Deflation is defined as a contraction in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods.

  I don't see how any reasonable person with knowledge of current events can disagree that there has been a contraction of both in the global money supply.

  There is also a psychological componet involved in deflation. Whether we are there or not I don't know for sure.

  If it would come to pass that there was a lack of confidence globally, and locally it could begin a deflationary spiral. Since we have financial institutions like AIG that can not pay their debts to foreign holders that could foment the genesis of the psychological factor involved in the a deflationary spiral,  it's hard not to see that it hasn't already begun, especially when you look at what is happening to markets in Asia. Part of this, particularly in Japan is due to lack of demand for goods, but the other piece of the puzzle is that AIG Japan has lost face, due to AIG America operating its business in the most stupifyingly unethical style of gluttons without conscience.

 The irony is that on 9/11 the terrorists took down the World Trade Center. That failed at stopping the US economy from carrying on. The WMD that blew out our financial system came from within. 

 The value of credit extended worldwide is unprecedented. Worse, most of this debt is "non-self-liquidating."

This key point is critical: The credit extended is NOT tied to production.

 "Much of it comprises loans to governments, investment loans for buying stock and real estate, and loans for everyday consumer items and services, none of which has any production tied to it. Even a lot of corporate debt is non-self-liquidating. The Fed’s aggressive easy-money policy has cruelly enticed even more marginal borrowers into the ring, particularly in the area of mortgages. All of these bolster the case for deflation."

http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation/

 
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Now we're talkin'

I don't see how any reasonable person with knowledge of current events can disagree that there has been a contraction of both in the global money supply.

Well...  I will agree with your point, in principle.  I'd say printing money would be an arguing point as to just how contracted it's become.  But my point is not that deflation isn't bad.  It's that inflation is bad, and this contraction, very often wrongly called deflation, is a market correction.  Real deflation, is bad.  Very bad.  And, in fact, prominent Austrian Economists have made that point very clear.  That's why calling what we are seeing now "deflation" can be detrimental to conversations about our current situation.  Hayek had said this himself .

Hayek (1937, p. 93) was as strongly opposed to contraction in nominal
income as he was to excessive expansion:

Whether we think that the ideal would be a more or less constant volume of the monetary circulation, or whether we think that this volume should gradually increase at a fairly constant rate as productivity increases, the problem of how to prevent the credit structure in any country from running away in either direction remains the same.

Hayek’s ideal (ibid.) was not a do-nothing monetary policy but “an intelligently
regulated international system.”6

It is important to understand that Austrian economists are not the "do nothing" crowd.  But Austrian economists do advocate a correction, as quickly as possible, of the effects of poor monetary policy.

In the “Austrian” diagnosis of the boom, credit expansion drove the interest rate artificially low, luring labor and capital into overly “roundabout” investment projects that would prove unsustainable when the interest rate returned to its natural level. Hayek (1933c, p. 178) concluded that the typical recession was an equilibrating process leading to “the re-absorption of the unemployed productive forces – men as well as equipment” into sustainable uses. The “readjustment of the economic system after a crisis” was a “process of liquidation which restores some sort of equilibrium” (Hayek 1933c, pp. 175, 174). Business bankruptcies – liquidation in the narrow sense – might be a necessary part of the process, but these were of secondary importance to the reallocation of the factors of production (Hayek 1933c, p. 175):

The analysis of the crisis shows that, once an excessive increase ofthe capital structure has proved insupportable and has led to a crisis, profitability of production can be restored only by considerable changes in relative prices, reductions of certain stocks, and transfers of the means of production to other uses. In connection with these changes, liquidations of firms in a purely financial sense of the word may be inevitable, and their postponement may possibly delay the process of liquidation in the first, more general sense; but this is a separate and special 12 phenomenon which in recent discussions has been stressed rather excessively at the expense of the more fundamental changes in prices, stocks, etc. 9

Both Hayek and Robbins later admitted that allowing wages to fall was the wrong thing.  Prices should have been allowed to fall from their inflated levels only so far as to keep from affecting nominal wages.  And I think that's your point about preventing a complete collapse due to a loss of all confidence.

 The irony is that on 9/11 the terrorists took down the World Trade Center. That failed at stopping the US economy from carrying on. The WMD that blew out our financial system came from within.

I disagree.  Greenspan's policies, in response to the reaction of American consumers, played an enormous role in what has been happening.  While I don't think the terrorists had this particular scenario in mind, they certainly (inderectly) had a much bigger impact than simply taking out a few buildings in New York City.

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On Greenspan

This is just my opinion:

Is it possible that the terrorists understood the psychology of the men running our markets more than we did? Thoughts to ponder.

 After 9/11 the stock market was saved. The trading carried on. The insult to America was corrected with lightening speed. Yes that is all true and admirable on the structure etc.

 Greenspan's fear was  that the 'central govt' would have too much money therefore too much power. He intentionally engineered policies that would ensure that the US budget would NOT have a savings account for the express purpose of discouraging a big government with too much money to spend. 

 The irony is that  his actions and mumblings caused exactly what he was trying to prevent.

 Now most governments are injecting tons of cash into their economies and considering nationalizing their banks, basically because they have no choice. Literally no choice.  And the smaller unstable countries who he was trying to lift up with capitalism, Estonia, Latvia, Urkraine and stocks are now in danger of becoming completely unstabilized and chaotic.

 The biggest crime of the century was committed by AIG. How immoral is it that a World Wide Insurance Company would have zero capital to pay out any claims! I really can't get over it. And now paying out those claims has national security implications. It's unbelievable.

 If you are bored or curious here is an article about the Wall Street insanity that bankrupted Iceland.

 It an astounding story.

 http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/04/iceland200904?currentPage=1

 

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Two totally different things:

Explaining why Greenspan supported Bush's tax cuts and gave them his stamp of approval...so to speak...has nothing to do with the polcies Greenspan himself enacted and carried as Fed chairman.

The irony is that his actions and mumblings caused exactly what he was trying to prevent.

It's not really ironic. It would have been ironic if supporting the tax cuts had actually caused the chain of events that led to what we're facing now in the financial sector. The correct irony is that an idiot like Greenspan says he supports small government in principle and then causes a chain of events to led to stratospheric increase in terms of scope and power. And he did this by abandoning everything he believed supposedly believed in when he wasn't in power. I say "supposedly" because the skeptical Murray Rothbard thought otherwise and said long ago about Greenspan when he became Fed chairman:

Greenspan's real qualification is that he can be trusted never to rock the establishment's boat. He has long positioned himself in the very middle of the economic spectrum. He is, like most other long-time Republican economists, a conservative Keynesian, which in these days is almost indistinguishable from the liberal Keynesians in the Democratic camp. In fact, his views are virtually the same as Paul Volcker, also a conservative Keynesian. Which means that he wants moderate deficits and tax increases, and will loudly worry about inflation as he pours on increases in the money supply. There is one thing, however, that makes Greenspan unique, and that sets him off from his Establishment buddies. And that is that he is a follower of Ayn Rand, and therefore "philosophically" believes in laissez-faire and even the gold standard. But as the New York Times and other important media hastened to assure us, Alan only believes in laissez-faire "on the high philosophical level." In practice, in the policies he advocates, he is a centrist like everyone else because he is a "pragmatist." As an alleged "laissez-faire pragmatist," at no time in his prominent twenty-year career in politics has he ever advocated anything that even remotely smacks of laissez-faire, or even any approach toward it. For Greenspan, laissez-faire is not a lodestar, a standard, and a guide by which to set one's course; instead, it is simply a curiosity kept in the closet, totally divorced from his concrete policy conclusions.

Ouch, Mr. Greenspan. Owned by Rothbard. If only he were still alive to make fun of you. He died too young.

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I get that you are a true 'believer'

but you have to admit that the followers of Hayek and friends, all sound a bit like religious fanatics.

 It seems like your mission and the mission of the followers is to go around correcting everyone else on the error of their irrational  thinking and steer them into 'proper thinking'. Almost as if disagreement is lack of reason. (Wha.....?)

 Greenspan did not want the Federal Government budget to have a surplus. Period.

 He felt it was dangerous and would lead to the government having more control than the free markets.

 That is precisely why he lowered interest rates to create an 'ownership' society, where self interest in property would create wealth for all and lead to a 'freer free market based' society.

 The investor class used these funds from the 'ownership agenda' to export their capitalist free market equals more freedom agenda to global markets.

It was a perfect path to spread freedom here and abroad while insuring that the US budget would not have a surplus. (Iraq)  Only we see that it was fraught the  now infamous unintended consequences and perverse incentives. No regulatory structure and a no holds barred appeal to materialism and investing recklessly.

He did end up creating less freedom for all. His master plan and his reading of human nature was an epic fail.

Can we please just learn the lesson that capitalism must be tempered with some regulations or it becomes a danger to itself and the financial wealth it is trying to create.

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Translation:

Since you don't have the facts on your side, you try to baselessly criticize others on some personal level and make them out to be suspect on the grounds of some "zeal" that you perceive.

Talk of "religious" "believer" and "follower" are simply ploys to obscure on a plainly obvious truth:

You don't know what your talking about on this matter on the most fundamental level. No amount of twisting  can change that.

The irony is that all this talk of "religion" that so easily throw out, by definition, more easily falls on you since religion is a matter of faith and not factual observation. All I ever show on the matter of Greenspan is simply unvarnished fact. It's not a rationalization to fit any priors, it not an argument that requires any use of the imagination and not a play on anecdotes They are simple facts about Greenspan's actual record....not a pre-conceived story woven out of disparate observations that don't mesh into anything concrete.

 He felt it was dangerous and would lead to the government having more control than the free markets.

 That is precisely why he lowered interest rates to create an 'ownership' society, where self interest in property would create wealth for all and lead to a 'freer free market based' society.

That simply makes no unequivocal sense. That is your way weaving rhetoric and policies together to get the result you want. Interest rates were lower to get people to borrow and spend and buy more homes and real estate to keep growth going.  Any conjecture beyond that is simply fantasy to fit preconceived notions. He was wrong to do it and your way of rationalizing is simply wrong.

Same goes for rest.

You can call it preaching all you want. It's unhelpful. One could easily say that you are preaching to promote of vision of your choosing. That would actually be closer to closer to the truth based on simple unbiased observation.

 

 

 

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ON this matter the point is

only you seem to know the matters and the points because only you are capable of of be rational and objective with your externalities on the points and the matters.

 Unhelpful to whom? Why do I have to be helpful to Greenspan? 

 I am just giving my assessment of Greenspans hackery.

 The results of his policies speak for themselves.

 Making excuses why he failed even though he was a free markets advocate, who subscribed to the Ayn Rand club, and was partial to the Austrian School of economics, who actually insisted on less regulation because it interferes with the perfection and flow of free market principles, is just another form of rationalizing. And he was even operating inside the parameters of the govt where he could slowly implement his agenda.

  I can actually accept that people can agree to disagree. I have my point of view, and my partisan leanings, I freely admit that, but I don't have a tantrum if people disagree with it.

 

 

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No, MissL

It's not just me. Most people are quite capable. You seem to be the only person who refuses to accept these simple facts about Greenspan. It's mainly just you.

The results of his policies speak for themselves.

Indeed they do. His results are statements of fact. But that isn't the issue here. The issue how you dress up those policies with intent and conjecture and connect them together.

I am not doing that. I looking at his policy moves at face value. You are not.

 Making excuses why he failed even though he was a free markets advocate, who subscribed to the Ayn Rand club, and was partial to the Austrian School of economics, who actually insisted on less regulation because it interferes with the perfection and flow of free market principles, is just another form of rationalizing.

Man, this rant shows how confused you are. I'm making excuses for him? I'm condemning him for what he did...which is quite anti-free market. As Rothbard said and as I've told you many times, words and opinions mean nothing. Actions do. And his actions were not free-market. BTW, he was never partial to the Austrian School....ever. And for a sense of timelines, Rothbard seemed to have him nailed to T well before he ever did anything that he actually did. That article I linked to was written in 1987 or so. Very accurate when viewed in hindsight. Rothbard wasn't making excuses because Greenspan hadn't done anything yet.

You think I'm having a tantrum? If only you could see my smiling face.

It's probably better that you don't add your own made-up tones to what I write. It will only confuse you.

 

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Yes sir Mr. J

Another authoritarian libertarian. The irony.

The pope and Rothbard are the final say on matters. Everyone else is confused or irrational.

We the muddled non-believers are so unhelpful when it comes to interpreting the word.

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Not sure what post you're reading to say that

But I'll just assume you have nothing else to say.

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Feels good doesn't it

 

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You OK there?

You're running off a string posts that don't make any sense.

 And that pope comment seems sort of absurd in and of itself considering I spent quite a few posts offering the opinion that he doesn't matter all that much.

 

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//

õ

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!!

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Hayek...

Hayek’s ideal (ibid.) was not a do-nothing monetary policy but “an intelligently
regulated international system.”

It should be noted that Hayek became radicalized in the 1970s and switched to a position of Free Banking in lieu of any centralized regulating agency...

I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied.
Learn to swim.
Moms gonna fix it all soon.
Moms comin round to put it back the way it ought to be.

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certainly

It should be noted that Hayek became radicalized in the 1970s and switched to a position of Free Banking in lieu of any centralized regulating agency...

It didn't take him long to see that it couldn't work (centralized banking).  I was simply working within a framework that ML might actually be able to agree with.  But I still think his correction to say that nominal wage drop, as a result of an overreaction during the time spent falling from inflation will result in very bad things.  I will admit that I am in the process of reading Austrian theory in time order.  It helps (me, personally) tie in historical context, but it also means I'm not as "current" as some.

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Mantra of the Week (Month)?

From Redstate : I support the troops Obama but not the war his implementing what he campaigned on destruction of liberty and America. The hyperbole is amazing over there.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

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I am on their email list

always good for a laugh.

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Yeah Me Too..n/t

.

http://wealthweekly.blogspot.com Wii FC:2805-8311-8040-2678 Brawl: 2277-7051-2186

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to say nothing of the hypocrisy

These were the same people screaming that to criticize the president was treason. 

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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That's a strawman, as there

That's a strawman, as there was noone that was claiming any criticism of the President was treason. I don't even think Redstate generally used the word treason that much. You are right about the hypocrisy, though. Politics these days reminds of a sibling squabble I used to have with my brother: " You're mean; Well so are you so that make you a hypocrite for saying I was mean; Yeah well now you're a hypocrite for calling me a hypocrite when you a hypocrite; yeah well you hypocrite for...." Or something like that. 

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No really

plenty of them claimed that any criticism of the president in "war" time was treason (and yes that specific word got bandied around a lot as did equivalents like "aiding and/or abetting the enemy"). 

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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You do realize Redstate, has

You do realize Redstate, has been quite critical of the President don't you. I hung out at Redstate quite a bit two years ago or so, and I don't think they threw around the treason charge lightly. Now, you might get called treasonous for doing something like arguing that the troops were all a bunch of rapists... But not for criticizing Bush.

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quite critical of President

quite critical of President Bush that is. Redstate actually seemed halfway reasonable back in the day, it was hyperpartisan and simplisitic of course, but you could have a good debate on there, and there were some reasonable people. It seems to have taken a turn toward shrillness since the Dems have taken over. Still better than Dkos, although I'm begining think the only now is the swear words.

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There are a couple posters there I'd love to have here

long term- Achance, Birdmojo, Blackhedd, and a few others that aren't leaping to mind

 

there also a few I'd like to see here just so they actually had to deal with opposing view points, but I know they wouldn't stick around.

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Indeed

but that hardly detracts from the hypocrisy charge...

I came. I saw. I posted.
Veni, Vidi, Bitchy.

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Better know a Logical Fallacy

Not a strawman.

Maybe "guilt by association" or "hasty generalization."

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Fun Fact

 AIG  held no capital in reserve on it's book to pay claims. Wow! An insurance company that held no money to pay on insurance claims.

 This was a clearing house for 'insured' toxic assets, now held by foreign banks, foreign pension funds, 

 This is the biggest case of fraud ever perpetrated. The company is an insolvent mess. Letting them go under would have economic implications around the world, particularly because there are a lot of pension funds involved.

 An unregulated market in default swaps to protect corporate bonds and corporations. Who could have predicted that would be an epic failure of catastrophic proportions. The folks that ran this scam are the ones that screamed and kicked against any kind of regulation in the name of competitive advantage.

 

 

What they said then:

Credit default swaps offer protection against defaults on corporate bonds and loans. Unlike other insurance, these derivatives don’t require much collateral to be held in reserve against losses. With the industry unregulated at present, the trade group known as the International Derivatives and Swaps Association is all that oversees swap dealing—and it merely requires members to disclose any collateral they’ve agreed to post.

 

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080921/REG/809...

Complicating the issue is the fact that the CDS market, with no central trading system or reporting requirements, would have been in total chaos had AIG faltered, Mr. Reinhardt said. 

I think this whole thing is going to be—as a teacher of economics—a major black eye for the idea that free markets are self-regulating,” Mr. Reinhardt said. “There will be regulations on this, and there will also be transparency [in the CDS market], so that the Fed chairman at 3 a.m. doesn’t get a phone call that says ‘help me.’”

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Got that.....

 AIG used toxic assets to insure their toxic assets. 

 

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